- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: triangulated across multilateral bodies (IMF Article IV, OECD, Eurostat, RSF, World Justice Project, V-Dem) + French official (INSEE, Banque de France, Cour des comptes) + French press (Le Monde, Les Echos) + rating agencies.

- The fiscal deficit/debt and the post-2024 budget-and-government paralysis are a single, reinforcing core negative; institutions and the economy outside the budget remain strong.

- Source-lean: low-to-moderate; Anglophone wires framed the political crisis with more drama than French/multilateral sources.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

Strong banks and controlled inflation within the eurozone, against a deficit/debt problem entangled with budget paralysis. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 88% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 76% │ 0.0 │ +3.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 82% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Worsened near -4 -> -5: the French Treasury sold benchmark 10-year OATs at 4.23% on Sept 3, up sharply from 3.90% in August and the highest since the 2008 crisis, with French yields now trading above Greece's. The deficit stands at 5.1% of GDP against the EU's 3% ceiling and debt at 117.5% of GDP, the highest since the Second World War. Corroborated centrally after the sweep flagged it as single-chain: independent coverage separately describes European yields at 15-year highs and France as the 'poster child' of sovereign debt problems. A sovereign paying more than Greece to borrow is a repricing of the borrower, not of the market. Long held -5.

Monetary Independence - Eurozone - the ECB is credible and independent; no national control, with the Banque de France a key voice. (ECB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Eurozone member; the euro is the #2 global reserve currency, a modest shared benefit. (IMF COFER)

Inflation - Worsened near 1 -> 0: Macron called for a G7 energy summit as more than 11% of French service stations reported fuel shortages (Le Monde, Cryptobriefing, Sept 18), on the same ECB tightening and 14.3% euro-area energy inflation that hit Germany. Long held 3.

Banking Stability - Four global systemically important banks with solid solvency and liquidity; the sovereign-debt overhang is the main watch-item. (S&P; ACPR)

Trade Actions Capacity - Aerospace, luxury, agri, defence, and nuclear export strength against a persistent goods deficit; stable, predictable trade policy; no resource curse. (Banque de France)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.0 │ 82% │

│ mid │ +1.36 │ 82% │

│ long │ +1.24 │ 82% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong courts and independent statistics, with press-ownership concentration and reform-delivery gridlock the drags. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 82% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 78% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Strong independent courts and a Constitutional Council; secure property and contract. (WJP; EU Rule of Law Report)

Statistical Integrity - INSEE is independent, Eurostat-compliant, and highly credible. (Eurostat, INSEE)

Civil Service Capacity - A capable, technocratic administration; reform delivery is hampered by political gridlock, not competence. (OECD)

Press Freedom - RSF 25th (2025, 'satisfactory'); the real drag is heavy ownership concentration (the Bollore/Vivendi galaxy) and SLAPPs. (RSF)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, backed by tested parliamentary oversight and a long unbroken record of apolitical command.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.59 │ 79% │

│ mid │ +5.59 │ 79% │

│ long │ +5.59 │ 79% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A hung parliament producing serial government collapses, with recurring social unrest, against strong civil liberties. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 82% │ -4.0 │ -3.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 78% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 78% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 82% │ 0.0 │ -1.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A Paris appeals court on July 7 upheld Marine Le Pen's EU-funds-misuse conviction but reduced her ineligibility so she is now ELIGIBLE to contest the April 2027 presidential election (3-year sentence, 1 year with an electronic tag); she confirmed she will run - removing a key legal barrier to a far-right presidential bid and raising 2027 uncertainty (Al Jazeera, France 24, NBC News - wire/independent). Near held -4; long -2 -> -3; confidence held.

Civil Liberties - Strong speech/assembly/due process and a robust (if confrontational) protest space; surveillance and protest-policing critiques. (V-Dem; Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - Lawful, durable skilled pathways (the long-stay visa, the multi-year Talent permit, the EU Blue Card), but the restrictive 2024 immigration law lengthened the residence requirement and added a language test from 2026 - the skilled route stays open while the rest tightens. (France-Visas; Fragomen)

Social Cohesion - Recurring high-intensity strikes and protests, 2023 banlieue riots, and secularism flashpoints; a 2025 pension-reform suspension eased one fault line. (Le Monde)

Demographics - Fertility ~1.56 (healthier than EU peers but the lowest since WWI) and a first post-war negative natural balance in 2025; population still grows via migration. (INSEE 2025)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.69 │ 79% │

│ mid │ -0.64 │ 79% │

│ long │ -0.59 │ 79% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A leading NATO/EU and nuclear power; an orderly but costly Sahel withdrawal completed in 2025. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 82% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 72% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A NATO/EU core member, the sole EU nuclear power, and a UN Security Council permanent member - a pillar of European security. (France Diplomatie)

Conflict Involvement - Worsened -1 -> -2: Macron stated Sept 18 that Russia is intensifying hybrid attacks against France and ordered a critical-infrastructure protection plan for defense-industry sites (AP, Le Monde). Confidence 0.7 -> 0.72.

Sanctions Capital Controls - EU sanctions regime; no capital controls; full financial integration. (EU)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.65 │ 78% │

│ mid │ +2.65 │ 78% │

│ long │ +2.65 │ 78% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

World-class infrastructure and a strong universal health system, against intensifying climate stress. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 82% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 82% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 82% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - A realized climate-disaster inflection: France declared a national wildfire emergency for the FIRST TIME as its worst fires since WWII burned 100,000+ acres in Gironde (from July 23), with ~200,000 evacuated across Gironde/Landes and Atlantic-coast tourist sites, during Europe's third heatwave of its worst recorded heatwave season (AP/Washington Post, Reuters, CNN - wire). Worsened near -1 -> -2, long -2 -> -3; confidence up. The adaptation-capacity assumption behind France's mild climate score is now visibly stressed.

Healthcare - Among the strongest universal systems with low avoidable mortality, against access strain (medical deserts, ER pressure). (OECD/EU Health Profile)

Infrastructure - Excellent high-speed rail, a reliable nuclear-backed grid (a net power exporter), and strong ports/broadband/water. (RTE)

Crime Safety - Moderate; homicide ~1.5/100k (a rising trend, partly drug-trafficking violence), persistent urban/petty crime, and a real terrorism history. (UNODC)

Disaster Insurance - The CatNat regime (a state-backed mandatory natural-catastrophe scheme) provides universal access; a 2025 surcharge hike reflects rising climate losses but the scheme functions. (CCR)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.24 │ 81% │

│ mid │ +3.14 │ 81% │

│ long │ +3.04 │ 81% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +2.55 │ 80% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +2.57 │ 81% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +2.05 │ 81% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +2.51 │ +2.57 │ +2.55 │

│ Assets │ +2.43 │ +2.57 │ +2.52 │

│ Currency │ +2.05 │ +2.27 │ +2.20 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘