- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, US GAO/CRS, Freedom House, Lowy) + international press; state media EXCLUDED. Tiny (~105k population) and data-thin; press not separately RSF-ranked. Fully dollarized (uses the US dollar).

- An exceptionally strong sovereign balance sheet (trust-fund assets ~510% of GDP, debt ~9%) paired with weak federal cohesion (stalled Chuuk secessionism, March 2025 Chuuk political violence) and a renewed ~$3.3bn COFA.

- Standout features: a Free democracy and an enormous fiscal buffer, against fragile four-state cohesion, very low capacity, chronic outmigration, and acute dispersed-atoll climate exposure.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A remarkably strong balance sheet against stagnant growth and negligible export diversity; fully dollarized. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 50% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Trust-fund assets ~510% of GDP and debt ~8.9% of GDP - very strong buffers despite a narrowing surplus. (IMF 2026 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - Fully dollarized. (definitional)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Uses the USD, issues none. (definitional)

Inflation - Slowed to ~3.2% (FY25) as commodity prices and US inflation eased. (IMF 2026)

Banking Stability - 'Sound' per the IMF but with rising NPLs flagged; correspondent-banking de-risking and thin credit access are structural. (IMF 2026)

Trade Actions Capacity - Reliant on fishing-license fees plus COFA grants, with negligible export diversity and credit constrained by informality. (IMF 2026)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.62 │ 70% │

│ mid │ -0.62 │ 70% │

│ long │ -0.62 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A Free rating and independent judiciary undercut by Chuuk political violence and very low capacity. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 45% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - An independent judiciary and Free rating, but Chuuk political violence/arrests (Mar 2025) and weak enforcement reduce it. (FH 2025; IMF)

Statistical Integrity - Persistent data gaps; the IMF urges closing 'information gaps'. (IMF 2026)

Civil Service Capacity - Very low - a four-state federal structure with delayed infrastructure rollout and audit/disbursement problems. (GAO; IMF 2026)

Press Freedom - Freedom House: civil liberties generally respected; not RSF-ranked, with small/limited media. (FH 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - No standing armed forces. The factor reduces here to the politicization of the police or gendarmerie. It is scored positive by default. Confidence is held low, as the usual evidence base does not apply.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.22 │ 55% │

│ mid │ -0.22 │ 55% │

│ long │ -0.22 │ 55% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Stable nationally but with recurring secessionist strain and Chuuk-level factional violence. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 45% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Stable democracy nationally, but recurring secessionist strain and Chuuk-level violence/factionalism. (FH 2025; Pacific Island Times 2025)

Civil Liberties - Generally respected (CL 55/60). (FH 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - Limited data; generally non-discriminatory. (inference)

Social Cohesion - Weak inter-state cohesion (Yap/Chuuk/Pohnpei/Kosrae), recurrent Chuuk secession talk, and deep factionalism. (Nationalia; FH)

Demographics - Heavy, sustained emigration to the US (population ~105k and falling), with labor shortages. (IMF; GAO)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.55 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -0.55 │ 58% │

│ long │ -0.55 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

US-aligned and COFA-secured, less of a militarized frontline than Palau. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +3.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Stayed US-aligned after flirting with China; the renewed COFA secures it, with the near-term dinged by US-funding delays. (GAO; RNZ; State Dept)

Conflict Involvement - Remote and not a militarized frontline like Palau - low direct conflict exposure. (inference)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Open, dollarized, and unsanctioned; de-risking the main friction. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.02 │ 57% │

│ mid │ +1.41 │ 57% │

│ long │ +1.79 │ 57% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Acute dispersed-atoll climate exposure and weak, remote services. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 72% │ -5.0 │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 45% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Mixed high islands plus atolls - SLR/coastal-erosion and typhoon exposure, low adaptive capacity. (WB Pacific CCDR; IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - Weak and dispersed across four states, with serious cases referred off-island. (inference)

Infrastructure - Remote, dispersed geography with delayed new projects and thin connectivity. (IMF 2026; GAO)

Crime Safety - Generally low violent crime, but Chuuk political violence is a localized exception. (FH; Pacific Island Times)

Disaster Insurance - A thin market against high exposure, donor-dependent. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.78 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -3.03 │ 58% │

│ long │ -3.28 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -0.75 │ 59% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -0.47 │ 62% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -0.33 │ 64% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -0.71 │ -0.73 │ -0.75 │

│ Assets │ -0.50 │ -0.47 │ -0.44 │

│ Currency │ -0.33 │ -0.28 │ -0.23 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘