- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics from independent sources (IMF, World Bank, V-Dem, Freedom House, RSF, TI, ICG) + international press; Gabonese state media EXCLUDED there.

- The Aug 2023 coup ended 55 years of Bongo rule; Gen. Oligui Nguema won the April 2025 election (~90%) under a new 2024 constitution - a transition with genuine reform signals but clear personalist-continuity risk.

- Standout features: a rare post-coup press-freedom rebound and anti-corruption drive, against a high-debt (~70% GDP, junk-rated) declining-oil rentier economy, extreme inequality, and an exceptional carbon-sink forest. CFA euro-peg.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A peg-anchored, low-inflation but high-debt declining-oil rentier with a classic resource-curse profile. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 78% │ -4.0 │ -4.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 78% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Public debt ~70.5% of GDP (above the CEMAC ceiling) with arrears accumulation and a junk rating; declining oil weighs on the long path. (IMF Art IV; Fitch; World Bank)

Monetary Independence - No own policy, but the CEMAC CFA euro peg with a French convertibility guarantee delivers credible stability. (BEAC; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The CFA franc is regional, not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and peg-anchored near the CEMAC norm. (IMF)

Banking Stability - A COBAC-supervised CEMAC system - shallow and low-penetration but peg-backed. (BEAC; IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - ~97% of exports are oil, manganese, and wood with structurally declining oil - a classic resource curse with modest diversification. (IMF; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.0 │ 73% │

│ mid │ -1.11 │ 73% │

│ long │ -1.22 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Weak institutions with a genuine but unconsolidated post-coup reform trajectory. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 62% │ -4.0 │ -3.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 62% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +0.50 │ 0.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Weak rule of law and entrenched patronage (CPI ~27/100), but a post-coup anti-corruption drive (Bongo aides jailed) and a new constitution offer a modest, selective improvement. (TI 2024; Freedom House 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Weak capacity but IMF-engaged and validated on macro data. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Patronage-laden and thin, though resource rents fund more capacity than poorer peers. (World Bank)

Press Freedom - A genuine post-coup rebound (RSF ~41st in 2025, 'satisfactory') but reforms unconsolidated and reversible. (RSF 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - The military is the decisive political arbiter behind a civilian facade. Some states in this band seized power outright within the last decade. Elected officials govern at the army's sufferance.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.96 │ 62% │

│ mid │ -2.88 │ 62% │

│ long │ -2.80 │ 62% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A coup-then-election transition with reform signals but continuity risk, over deep inequality. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A coup-then-election transition with credible turnout but a ~90% margin and incumbency advantage risking a new personalist settlement. (Al Jazeera; France24)

Civil Liberties - Improved tone post-coup but still constrained - a 'Partly Free' trajectory. (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - A significant West African migrant-labour presence; not rights-protective but no mass-expulsion pattern documented. (inference)

Social Cohesion - Extreme inequality (~35% poverty) despite high per-capita wealth; no active insurgency. (World Bank)

Demographics - Young and urbanised - a potential dividend against a 20%+ jobs strain. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.07 │ 61% │

│ mid │ -2.22 │ 61% │

│ long │ -2.38 │ 61% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable, France-linked, sanction-free actor with no active conflict. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - France ties retained post-coup; pragmatic and non-confrontational, with no Russia-pivot drift seen. (ICG; Reuters)

Conflict Involvement - No active armed conflict; stable borders. (ACLED)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Post-coup AU/ECCAS suspensions lifted after the transition; operates within CEMAC FX. (BEAC; Reuters)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.37 │ 66% │

│ mid │ +0.37 │ 66% │

│ long │ +0.37 │ 66% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A rare carbon sink with low climate hazard, against weak healthcare and uneven infrastructure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 62% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 50% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - ~88% forest cover buffers and low population pressure, against coastal-flood exposure and oil-dependent readiness. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - Weak but oil-funded above the poorest peers, with an e-health push underway. (World Bank; WHO)

Infrastructure - Better than the poorest CEMAC peers (Libreville, manganese rail) but uneven power and roads. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - Urban crime in Libreville/Port-Gentil; no insurgency. (OSAC)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible insurance penetration. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.69 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -3.79 │ 59% │

│ long │ -3.89 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -2.39 │ 63% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -1.64 │ 67% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -1.20 │ 70% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -2.29 │ -2.34 │ -2.39 │

│ Assets │ -1.59 │ -1.64 │ -1.70 │

│ Currency │ -1.20 │ -1.27 │ -1.33 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘