- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF, World Bank, EBRD, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem, Freedom House, OSCE) + Georgian official (Geostat, NBG) + Georgian independent press (Civil.ge, OC Media); Russian state media excluded.

- Scored governance on observable actions/data (CPI drop, RSF rank, OSCE findings, the Georgian-Dream-passed laws, the self-imposed EU-accession freeze), not opposition rhetoric; government-side strengths confirmed by neutral data (low debt, sound banks, low crime, open immigration) kept at full positive weight.

- NEGATIVE-SKEW case: good fundamentals undercut by accelerating state capture, democratic backsliding, and Russia-threat exposure.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

Good fundamentals (low debt, sound banks, strong growth) that the deteriorating governance now threatens. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 60% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Public debt ~36% GDP, back to pre-pandemic levels, with the deficit under the fiscal-rule ceiling; strong recent growth. (IMF 2025/2026 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - The NBG is technically competent (inflation-targeting), but management/board purges and political pressure since 2024 erode de facto independence; trajectory worsening. (IMF; NBG; Transparency Intl)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The lari is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - ~4-5% YoY, near the 3% target, with a stable lari. (NBG)

Banking Stability - Well-capitalised, record profits, NPLs ~2.6%, healthy liquidity. (NBG; KPMG 2025)

Trade Actions Capacity - Diversified (Middle Corridor transit, tourism, wine/agri, ICT, remittances), no resource curse; heavy Russia-trade dependence and sanctions-circumvention scrutiny the risk. (IMF; CEPA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.70 │ 59% │

│ mid │ +2.49 │ 59% │

│ long │ +2.29 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Documented state capture and a sharply declining press freedom; statistics still usable. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 75% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Documented state capture by the Ivanishvili/Georgian Dream network, with a judiciary controlled by a judges' clan; trajectory deteriorating. (Transparency Intl; V-Dem)

Statistical Integrity - Geostat is usable and IMF/WB-relied-upon, with emigration/occupied-area gaps. (IMF; Geostat)

Civil Service Capacity - A functional administrative core, increasingly politicized/loyalty-based, with brain drain. (TI; IMF)

Press Freedom - Worsened near -5 -> -6: Georgian Dream announced intent to ban ALL five major opposition parties that cleared the 2024 parliamentary threshold, adding For Georgia (Gakharia) to the Constitutional Court lawsuit (OC Media, Bloomberg, Sept 15-16). At least three opposition leaders are already imprisoned. If the court bans all five, Georgia would have no legal parliamentary opposition. Confidence 0.8 -> 0.85.

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.08 │ 57% │

│ mid │ -2.24 │ 57% │

│ long │ -2.41 │ 57% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A democratic-backsliding crisis and a crackdown on civil liberties, against a genuinely open immigration regime. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -7.0 │ -6.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 78% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Worsened near -6 -> -7 and long -5 -> -6: the party-ban move is an acute escalation beyond chronic protest instability. A former security service chief received 13 years on corruption charges Sept 16 in a pattern of political prosecutions (Reuters). EU accession talks are already paused. Confidence 0.7 -> 0.75.

Civil Liberties - Worsened -6 -> -7: banning every parliamentary opposition party is a step beyond prior foreign-agents and anti-LGBT laws. Confidence 0.75 -> 0.78.

Treatment Non Citizens - Genuinely open: US citizens get 365-day visa-free stay, with easy residency/business setup; discounted from higher only by the rule-of-law backdrop (durability risk if a captured state weaponizes status). (travel.state.gov)

Social Cohesion - Deep, hardening polarization between a pro-EU public and the government. (EU; OC Media)

Demographics - Ageing with sustained youth/female emigration; population ~3.7M. (Geostat; UNFPA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.15 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -3.0 │ 60% │

│ long │ -2.85 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Drifting from the West toward Russia accommodation, with ~20% of territory occupied. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Drifting from the EU/US toward Russia accommodation; EU candidacy frozen, the US strategic partnership suspended, and the ruling oligarch sanctioned. (EU Parliament; US State)

Conflict Involvement - ~20% of territory (Abkhazia/South Ossetia) occupied since 2008, with ongoing 'borderization' and a latent Russia threat. (US State Dept; CRS)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Currently an open capital account with no controls, but elevated Western scrutiny over Russia sanctions-circumvention is a real downside risk. (US State Investment Climate 2025)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.25 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -3.25 │ 60% │

│ long │ -3.25 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Very low street crime and improving infrastructure, against uneven healthcare and seismic/landslide exposure. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Moderate vulnerability, decent readiness - Black Sea coast, mountain hazards, Caucasus heat/drought. (ND-GAIN; IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - Privatized, cheap, and improving, but uneven in quality and coverage. (WHO-region data)

Infrastructure - Decent and improving (the East-West highway, transit upgrades). (IMF; EBRD)

Crime Safety - A genuine strength: very low street crime, top-third on the Global Peace Index. (GPI 2025)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration against real seismic/landslide exposure. (PreventionWeb)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.88 │ 57% │

│ mid │ +0.77 │ 57% │

│ long │ +0.67 │ 57% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -1.42 │ 58% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -0.28 │ 59% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +0.56 │ 59% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -1.31 │ -1.37 │ -1.42 │

│ Assets │ -0.16 │ -0.28 │ -0.39 │

│ Currency │ +0.56 │ +0.41 │ +0.26 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘