- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV/ECF, World Bank, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem) + Ghanaian official (GSS, Bank of Ghana, GoldBod) + Ghanaian independent press (MyJoyOnline, Citi, GhanaWeb).

- A stable democracy executing a credible recovery from a 2022 default: the Dec-2024 election produced a peaceful turnover, with sharp disinflation, a gold-led reserve rebuild, and a falling debt ratio.

- Standout features: democratic stability and a real recovery, against high debt, commodity dependence, illegal-mining/climate damage, and Sahel-spillover risk. Source-lean: HIGH but low-distortion Anglophone.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A credible post-default recovery - sharp disinflation, a stabilised cedi, a gold-led reserve rebuild - against a high debt load and commodity exposure. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 88% │ +3.0 │ +3.50 │ +4.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +3.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - HELD at near +3: the IMF cautioned Ghana on Aug 25 against rushing back to international capital markets, urging it to rebuild investor confidence and its credit rating first (Adom Online, reporting an IMF statement). This is a genuinely new in-window item and specifically NOT the July 27 IMF-completion story that has been recirculating as fresh. A creditor-of-last-resort counselling patience does not reverse the debt-distress exit already booked, and it does caution against extrapolating it. Long held +4.

Monetary Independence - A credible disinflation and a stabilised cedi - a reform-era anchor. (IMF; Bank of Ghana)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The cedi is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Down from a ~50% peak to low single digits on a 15-month downtrend, with durability the watch-item. (GSS; Bloomberg)

Banking Stability - Recapitalising after the domestic-debt-restructuring hit, profitable but with some banks below minimums. (IMF; State Dept ICS)

Trade Actions Capacity - Gold (a record-boosted exporter) plus cocoa (crop-struggling) and oil, with a gold-led reserve rebuild a 2025 strength; commodity-cycle exposed. (GoldBod; USDA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.65 │ 85% │

│ mid │ +2.63 │ 85% │

│ long │ +2.62 │ 85% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Relatively strong regional institutions - functional courts, credible statistics, and a free press - with corruption persisting. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Relatively strong for the region - functional courts - though corruption persists. (WJP)

Statistical Integrity - The statistics service is credible and IMF-engaged. (GSS)

Civil Service Capacity - Functional but with mixed delivery. (WJP; IMF)

Press Freedom - Relatively free and vibrant (RSF ~39/180, its strongest in years), with some pressure. (RSF)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.83 │ 73% │

│ mid │ +2.83 │ 73% │

│ long │ +2.83 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A mature democracy with a peaceful turnover and strong liberties, against hardship discontent and localised unrest. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 90% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +1.50 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A mature democracy - the Dec-2024 election produced a peaceful turnover (the fifth since 1992) - against economic-hardship discontent. (Freedom House)

Civil Liberties - Strong by regional standards, with some shrinking civic space. (WJP; Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - Lawful routes with a diaspora-welcoming tilt and a regional-hub role. (observed)

Social Cohesion - Broadly cohesive, with a localised conflict, illegal-mining unrest, and Sahel spillover. (ADF)

Demographics - Young and fast-growing - a dividend with a jobs strain. (UN)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.14 │ 77% │

│ mid │ +3.09 │ 77% │

│ long │ +3.04 │ 77% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable Western partner and ECOWAS anchor, against rising Sahel-spillover risk. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A stable Western/US partner and ECOWAS anchor - pragmatic. (observed)

Conflict Involvement - No internal war, but rising Sahel-jihadist spillover risk on the northern border. (ADF)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Open and unsanctioned, with crisis-era controls easing. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.04 │ 76% │

│ mid │ +1.04 │ 76% │

│ long │ +1.04 │ 76% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Decent regional infrastructure and relative safety, against flooding and illegal-mining environmental damage. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 66% │ -4.0 │ -4.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Coastal erosion (Keta/Volta) and northern drought, with relatively better governance/readiness. (ND-GAIN; WB CCDR)

Healthcare - A near-universal health-insurance scheme but underfunded and uneven. (observed)

Infrastructure - Decent regionally - roads, ports, power - though load-shedding recurs. (observed)

Crime Safety - Relatively safe, with localised northern risk. (observed)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration against flood exposure. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.59 │ 62% │

│ mid │ -0.70 │ 62% │

│ long │ -0.80 │ 62% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +2.31 │ 74% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +2.22 │ 78% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +2.48 │ 81% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +2.38 │ +2.34 │ +2.31 │

│ Assets │ +2.24 │ +2.22 │ +2.20 │

│ Currency │ +2.48 │ +2.47 │ +2.45 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘