- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics built from independent sources (IMF, World Bank, AfDB, V-Dem, Freedom House, RSF, HRW, Amnesty, BTI, ICG) + international wire (Reuters/AFP/AP/Al Jazeera); Guinean state media EXCLUDED there.

- A junta that overstayed its transition: Col. Mamadi Doumbouya seized power in the Sept 2021 coup, banned protest in 2022, ran a Sept 2025 referendum (~90% 'yes') letting military leaders run for office and extending the term to 7 years, then won the Dec 2025 presidential vote (~87%) the UN flagged for intimidation - a coup laundered into elected rule.

- Standout flags: a resource-boom-into-autocracy story - the world-class Simandou iron-ore project shipped first ore (Dec 2025) and Guinea is a top-three global bauxite supplier, while opposition leaders are forcibly disappeared (FNDC's Sylla and Bah missing since 2024-25) and the press is sharply repressed (the single biggest RSF Index drop, -25 places, in 2025).

- Currency: the Guinean franc (GNF) is a sovereign currency run by the BCRG - monetary independence is judged on that central bank's own credibility, not a peg; not a reserve currency.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A fast-growing mining economy (bauxite plus the launching Simandou iron ore) with improving inflation, set against a sovereign-currency credibility question and an acute resource-curse governance risk. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 68% │ -2.0 │ -2.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 68% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ +1.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Deficit narrowing to ~4.1% of GDP with debt rising to ~48% of GDP in 2025; no IMF program (a 2024 ECF request was effectively stalled over the slow democratic return). (World Bank; AfDB; IMF DataMapper)

Monetary Independence - A sovereign currency (GNF) run by the BCRG; policy credibility is limited and historically tied to the political cycle, though inflation management has improved. (BCRG; IMF; World Bank)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The Guinean franc is not an international reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Easing to ~3-7% in 2025 from low-double-digits earlier, on softer food and transport prices. (World Bank; AfDB)

Banking Stability - Shallow, low-penetration banking sector with limited supervisory depth. (IMF; World Bank)

Trade Actions Capacity - Strong export trajectory - a top global bauxite supplier (~80% of FX) now joined by Simandou iron ore (first shipment Dec 2025) - but an acute resource-curse profile with weak governance over rents. (World Bank; Reuters; AfDB)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.81 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -0.75 │ 60% │

│ long │ -0.69 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Junta rule with no judicial independence, captured transition institutions, and one of the world's fastest-deteriorating press environments. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 78% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 58% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 70% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Military rule with no judicial independence, enforced disappearances of opposition figures, and entrenched corruption. (Freedom House; HRW; V-Dem; TI)

Statistical Integrity - Weak capacity; macro data engaged with IFIs but governance and political data unreliable. (IMF; World Bank)

Civil Service Capacity - Limited technocratic depth, heavily politicized under the junta. (World Bank; BTI)

Press Freedom - Sharp deterioration - radio/TV outlets censored, journalist Habib Marouane Camara abducted/missing; the largest single RSF Index drop in 2025. (RSF; CPJ)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces hold executive power directly. In some cases an armed movement governs as the state. There is no civilian principal to control them.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.28 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -5.28 │ 60% │

│ long │ -5.28 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A junta entrenching itself through a captured referendum and election, repressing protest, against deep mining-displacement and ethnic tensions. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 78% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 62% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - The 2021 coup leader cemented power via a 2025 referendum and an ~87% December 2025 win the UN flagged for intimidation - suppressed, not resolved, instability. (Africa Center; Al Jazeera; Reuters)

Civil Liberties - Protest banned since 2022; demonstrations met with arrests, injuries, and deaths; opposition activists disappeared and tortured. (HRW; Amnesty; CIVICUS)

Treatment Non Citizens - No clear pathways and weak due process under junta rule; not a significant migration destination. (Freedom House; inference)

Social Cohesion - Ethnic-political fault lines (Peul/Malinke/Susu) plus mining-driven land loss and water damage fueling local grievances in Boke. (BTI; HRW)

Demographics - Young, growing population - a potential dividend contingent on jobs and governance. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.74 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -3.74 │ 59% │

│ long │ -3.74 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Non-aligned and not at war, courting Chinese and Gulf mining capital while drifting from Western partners post-coup. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Post-coup distancing from ECOWAS/Western partners, deepening China/Gulf mining ties (Simandou ore flows to China) - transactional, not a stable alliance. (Reuters; ICG)

Conflict Involvement - No active armed conflict and outside the core Sahel jihadist theatre, though coastal-West-Africa spillover is a watch item. (ACLED; ICG)

Sanctions Capital Controls - No broad sanctions regime; some post-coup targeted measures and FX-management frictions around mining rents. (Reuters; State Dept ICS)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.03 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -0.03 │ 58% │

│ long │ -0.03 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Weak healthcare and infrastructure (mining corridors aside), notable crime/insecurity, and tropical climate exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 62% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 62% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 50% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Heavy-rainfall flooding, coastal exposure, mining-degraded land, weak readiness. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - Weak, low-spend system with poor outcomes and limited reach outside Conakry (an Ebola-affected legacy). (WHO; World Bank)

Infrastructure - Poor power and roads outside new mining corridors; Simandou's railway/port build is a localized upgrade, not nationwide. (World Bank; Reuters)

Crime Safety - Elevated urban crime and periodic protest-related violence and security-force abuses. (Freedom House; OSAC)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible insurance penetration. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.77 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -4.87 │ 59% │

│ long │ -4.97 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -3.82 │ 59% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -2.49 │ 59% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -1.74 │ 59% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -3.81 │ -3.82 │ -3.82 │

│ Assets │ -2.50 │ -2.49 │ -2.48 │

│ Currency │ -1.74 │ -1.70 │ -1.67 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘