- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, UNODC, Global Initiative, Freedom House, RSF, Crisis Group) + international press; state media EXCLUDED on governance.

- The military seized power on 26 Nov 2025 - a day before disputed Nov 23 election results (both Embalo and opposition candidate Dias claimed victory; the PAIGC was barred; the count was reportedly destroyed); credible domestic/regional voices allege a 'staged coup', encoded here as a serious multi-source allegation, not fact. ECOWAS and the AU suspended the country.

- Standout drags: a chronic coup cycle (four-plus since independence), an entrenched cocaine-transit 'narco-state', cashew mono-dependence, and near-floor rule of law; the WAEMU CFA euro peg and low inflation are the only firm anchors.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A peg-anchored, low-inflation but cashew-mono-dependent economy shadowed by an illicit cocaine corridor. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -2.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Public debt ~78-82% of GDP at high distress risk; an IMF ECF deficit target existed but the coup imperils program continuity. (IMF Jul-2025)

Monetary Independence - The WAEMU CFA franc, hard-pegged to the euro with a French convertibility guarantee via BCEAO - credibility at the cost of autonomy. (BCEAO; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The CFA franc is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and peg-anchored (~2%). (IMF)

Banking Stability - Within the WAEMU framework but with weak local supervision and high sovereign exposure in a fragile state. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Extreme cashew mono-dependence (~80% of exports) alongside a parallel illicit cocaine economy - benefiting near-term from high cashew prices. (IMF; UNODC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.02 │ 71% │

│ mid │ -0.09 │ 71% │

│ long │ -0.21 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Among the world's weakest institutions - coup-prone, narco-captured, with a post-coup press warning. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Among the world's weakest - chronic coups, drug-trafficking capture of elites, and a military that voids elections. (Freedom House 2026; UNODC)

Statistical Integrity - Limited, IMF-engaged but unreliable - the destroyed 2025 vote count epitomizes the fragility. (IMF; Al Jazeera)

Civil Service Capacity - A hollow, politicized, donor-dependent administration repeatedly disrupted by ruptures. (World Bank/IMF)

Press Freedom - RSF 110th (2025), down 18 places; post-coup the new authorities warned media to 'cooperate'. (RSF 2025; MFWA)

Civil-Military Relations - The military is the decisive political arbiter behind a civilian facade. Some states in this band seized power outright within the last decade. Elected officials govern at the army's sufferance.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.67 │ 65% │

│ mid │ -4.67 │ 65% │

│ long │ -4.67 │ 65% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Acute instability from a fresh military takeover atop a deep coup history. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -6.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 50% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ 0.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Four-plus coups since independence; the Nov-2025 takeover amid a disputed election, with ECOWAS/AU suspension and 'staged coup' allegations. (Reuters; Al Jazeera; Amani Africa)

Civil Liberties - Restricted further post-coup - assembly curbed, opposition harassed, the PAIGC barred. (Freedom House 2026; RSF)

Treatment Non Citizens - No systematic targeting of foreigners, but a weak-rule-of-law environment offers little protection. (observed)

Social Cohesion - Politico-military factionalism and drug-money rivalries rather than ethnic war, with recurrent elite violence. (ICG; Global Initiative)

Demographics - Young and growing, but brain drain and weak job creation blunt any dividend. (UN/World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.52 │ 63% │

│ mid │ -3.26 │ 63% │

│ long │ -3.0 │ 63% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Suspended from ECOWAS/AU after the coup, an erratic but unsanctioned WAEMU member. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Suspended from ECOWAS and the AU after the coup; an erratic foreign alignment and a diplomatic problem case. (Al Jazeera; Soufan Center)

Conflict Involvement - No interstate/insurgent war - instability is internal coup/factional violence, not armed conflict. (ICG)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open WAEMU/CFA regime with no broad sanctions to date; ECOWAS has only threatened targeted measures on coup actors. (Amani Africa)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.08 │ 64% │

│ mid │ -1.08 │ 64% │

│ long │ -1.08 │ 64% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Among the world's weakest health and infrastructure, with drug-linked crime and coastal exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 50% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - A low-lying mangrove/coastal state - severe sea-level/erosion plus saline rice-paddy intrusion, near-zero readiness. (ND-GAIN; IPCC)

Healthcare - One of the world's weakest health systems - low coverage, chronic shortages, heavy external reliance. (World Bank/WHO)

Infrastructure - Very poor power, roads, and water, with chronic electricity deficits. (World Bank/AfDB)

Crime Safety - Pervasive drug-trafficking-linked organized crime and corruption, plus political-violence risk. (UNODC; Global Initiative)

Disaster Insurance - Effectively no functioning insurance market. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.31 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -4.51 │ 59% │

│ long │ -4.72 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -3.27 │ 65% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -2.05 │ 67% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -1.19 │ 69% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -3.33 │ -3.30 │ -3.27 │

│ Assets │ -2.0 │ -2.05 │ -2.09 │

│ Currency │ -1.19 │ -1.25 │ -1.31 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘