- Live-data refresh (2026-07-07): news pull since the 2026-06-18 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire proved repeatedly reversible (remote MoU June 17 + 60-day Burgenstock roadmap June 21, then a Kiku-tanker strike -> US strikes on 5 Iranian sites -> Iranian retaliation on US bases in Kuwait/Bahrain June 27-28 -> fresh Saudi/Qatari tanker strikes July 7 -> Trump 'finish the job'), even as verified relief landed (OFAC General License X, a 60-day Iranian-oil-export waiver ~$8-9B) and Hormuz volumes recovered to ~90% of pre-war baseline. Iran's $24B/$12B frozen-asset claim stays Mehr/parliamentary-sourced and US-denied -> excluded. Secondary: Russia's refinery/fuel crisis + deficit blowout (160% of the annual target, exile-press sourced); Ukraine's EU-accession progress + NATO 140bn-euro pledge vs the deadliest Kyiv strikes of the year; Venezuela's twin quake + constitutional-legality shock; certified-but-contested elections in Peru (Fujimori) and Colombia (de la Espriella); Bolivia's blockade crisis easing under a state of emergency; US inflation topping 4% and SCOTUS striking the birthright-citizenship order while domestic-terrorism sentences and ICE-detention deaths mount; China's rare-earth coercion + HK Article 23 expansion; India's near-final US trade deal vs a press-freedom slide; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk watch. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-18): news pull since the 2026-06-15 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; the US-Iran deal's $24B frozen-asset release / upfront tranche remains Iranian-state-media-sourced (Mehr) and US-rejected, treated as unverified regime framing - only the framework MoU + its June 19 Buergenstock signing are independently confirmed). Dominant mover: the US-Iran framework hardened toward its June 19 signing in Switzerland (MoU signed electronically by both sides June 17) but stays a non-final 60-day framework with terms disputed (US 'pay-for-performance'), the Strait of Hormuz still physically near-shut (~7 ships transited vs 550+ stranded; ~4-6 month export recovery), and Israeli ops in Lebanon continuing - so scores firm modestly along the resolution path without fully reversing. Secondary: a hawkish first FOMC under Chair Warsh, Ukraine's Fundamentals accession cluster opening (Luxembourg IGC June 15) + the G7 Evian summit, an HRW report on the US Minnesota deployment, Hungary's PM-term-limit amendment, Japan's BOJ hike to 1.0%, a terror attack on Niamey's airport, and Equatorial Guinea's full-cabinet resignation. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics from independent sources (IMF, World Bank, V-Dem, Freedom House, RSF, TI, HRW, Amnesty) + international press; Equatoguinean state media EXCLUDED there.

- Teodoro Obiang (in power since 1979) is the world's longest-serving non-royal head of state - a closed, repressive system with no independent media, documented Black Beach prison torture, and the worst CPI of the regional petrostates (13/100).

- Standout drags: extreme family capture of oil wealth (the Teodorin seizures, the 2024 Engonga embezzlement scandal), the paradox of plenty (top-tier per-capita wealth alongside majority poverty), and a sharp 2025 oil-led contraction; the CFA euro peg is the lone offset.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A peg-anchored but acutely declining-oil rentier on an IMF staff-monitored program. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 75% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 78% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - A sharp 2025 contraction (~-6.4%) on falling hydrocarbons, on an IMF Staff-Monitored Program, with a long oil-depletion path and a weak non-oil base. (IMF 2025 Art IV/SMP; World Bank 2025)

Monetary Independence - The CEMAC CFA euro peg with a French convertibility guarantee - stable, non-sovereign. (BEAC; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The CFA franc is regional, not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and peg-anchored near the CEMAC norm. (IMF)

Banking Stability - A COBAC-supervised CEMAC member - opaque, shallow, oil-exposed. (BEAC; IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Near-total hydrocarbon dependence with structurally declining output and negligible diversification - an acute resource curse. (IMF 2025; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.75 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -1.86 │ 60% │

│ long │ -1.97 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Among the world's most corrupt and opaque states, with no independent media. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 82% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Among the world's most corrupt (CPI 13/100), no judicial independence, oil wealth captured by the ruling family (the Teodorin seizures; the 2024 Engonga conviction). (TI 2024; Freedom House 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Among the most opaque states - some IMF engagement under the SMP but data thin and unreliable. (IMF; World Bank)

Civil Service Capacity - The government was reconstituted within ~1 month of the full-cabinet resignation: PM Manuel Osa Nsue Nsua sworn in June 22 and Decree 60/2026 named the new government June 23, with no extended vacuum (Ahora EG, Real Equatorial Guinea - independent-leaning; official/party outlets excluded, used only to confirm dates). The acute governance-failure read partially resolves via continuity. Improved -7 -> -6; confidence up.

Press Freedom - No independent media; pervasive censorship and journalist detention, among the world's worst. (RSF; Freedom House 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.58 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -6.58 │ 58% │

│ long │ -6.58 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Suppressed stability under the world's longest-serving non-royal leader, with extreme inequality. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 72% │ -4.0 │ -5.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 62% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Suppressed surface stability under a leader in power since 1979 (~97% in 2022), with an acute, unmanaged eventual-succession risk inside the ruling family. (Freedom House 2025)

Civil Liberties - 'Not Free' - routine arbitrary arrest and documented torture at Black Beach prison. (Freedom House 2025; HRW; Amnesty 2024)

Treatment Non Citizens - Closed and arbitrary toward foreigners, with a history of expelling West African migrants and exit/detention risk. (HRW)

Social Cohesion - Extreme inequality - top per-capita wealth alongside majority poverty - plus Bioko/mainland and ethnic cleavages. (World Bank 2025; HRW)

Demographics - Young and small-population with a nominal dividend, undercut by repression-driven exile. (World Bank; inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.15 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -5.45 │ 60% │

│ long │ -5.76 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A transactional hedger with targeted Western actions against the ruling family. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 65% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Transactional hedging across the US (oil majors), China, Russia, and Spain; no firm bloc. (press; AidData)

Conflict Involvement - No active war; periodic coup-plot/mercenary scares but no open conflict. (press; ACLED)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Not broadly sanctioned, but targeted Western asset actions against the ruling family (Teodorin); CEMAC FX controls and opacity raise transfer risk. (US/French courts; IMF; BEAC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.16 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -1.16 │ 58% │

│ long │ -1.16 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Weak outcomes despite top per-capita wealth - a hallmark of the diverted-rents model. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 50% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 45% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - A low-readiness oil state with coastal-flood exposure and weak adaptive institutions despite income. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - Weak outcomes despite top per-capita wealth - the diverted-rents model; a thin public system. (World Bank/WHO; HRW)

Infrastructure - Oil-funded showcase projects (Malabo, Ciudad de la Paz) above the poorest peers but unevenly distributed. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - A heavy security-state presence, with arbitrary-detention risk the larger personal hazard than street crime. (OSAC; HRW)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible insurance penetration. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.88 │ 55% │

│ mid │ -4.98 │ 55% │

│ long │ -5.08 │ 55% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -5.14 │ 58% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -3.59 │ 59% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -2.79 │ 59% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -4.89 │ -5.02 │ -5.14 │

│ Assets │ -3.51 │ -3.59 │ -3.68 │

│ Currency │ -2.79 │ -2.87 │ -2.95 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘