- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: triangulated across multilateral bodies (IMF, OECD, Eurostat, RSF, World Justice Project, EIOPA, EEA, ECtHR) + Greek official (ELSTAT, Bank of Greece) + Greek/EU press.

- The fiscal turnaround (primary surpluses, regained investment grade) is the standout positive; the lowest press freedom in the EU, severe climate exposure, and demographics are the standout negatives.

- Source-lean: press-freedom and migration factors leaned partly on rights-NGO/Anglophone framing, corroborated by RSF and European-court rulings.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A post-crisis turnaround: large primary surpluses, fast-falling (if still high) debt, recapitalized banks, and a world-leading merchant fleet. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +4.50 │ +4.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +2.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.50 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - A post-crisis turnaround: large primary surpluses, debt high (~150% GDP) but falling fast, and regained investment-grade ratings (2023-24). (IMF Art IV; DBRS)

Monetary Independence - Eurozone - the ECB is credible and independent; no national control. (ECB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Eurozone member; the euro is the #2 global reserve currency, a modest shared benefit. (IMF COFER)

Inflation - Reaccelerated to ~4.6% YoY (Apr 2026) on housing/utilities; expected to converge to target long-term. (Eurostat; ECB)

Banking Stability - Four systemic banks recapitalized; NPLs down to ~3.3% (from crisis peaks above 40%), CET1 ~15%, returning to profit. (Bank of Greece FSR 2026)

Trade Actions Capacity - A world-leading merchant fleet and record tourism, plus exports; stable EU-delegated policy; no resource curse; a goods-trade deficit the offset. (INSETE; UNCTAD)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.51 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +3.61 │ 74% │

│ long │ +3.71 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Credible (post-reform) statistics and improving digital government, against weak rule of law and the lowest press freedom in the EU. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - WJP ~48/143, weak on order and security; the Predator surveillance scandal and the Tempi train-disaster accountability crisis are live concerns. (WJP 2025; HRW 2026)

Statistical Integrity - ELSTAT has been independent and ESS-compliant since the post-2010 reforms, with consecutive Eurostat validations; the historical 'Greek statistics' problem is resolved. (Eurostat)

Civil Service Capacity - EU-leading digitalization via gov.gr and RRF funds, against a deep clientelism legacy. (OECD 2025)

Press Freedom - RSF ranks Greece low for the EU (89th, 2025): journalist surveillance, the unsolved Karaivaz murder, and ownership concentration. (RSF 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.95 │ 73% │

│ mid │ +1.95 │ 73% │

│ long │ +1.95 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable single-party majority under protest pressure, with lawful investor residency, against steep demographic decline. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.50 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A single-party majority that survived a censure motion, but huge Tempi-disaster protests and recurring general strikes. Stable but pressured. (Al Jazeera; Euronews)

Civil Liberties - Speech and assembly broadly protected, but the surveillance scandal, police-violence findings, and asylum-access suspensions erode the floor. (WJP; HRW 2026)

Treatment Non Citizens - Lawful, durable routes (a Golden Visa with 2024 threshold increases; a digital-nomad visa), with friction at the asylum margin. (EY)

Social Cohesion - A migration frontline: a 2025 European-court ruling against systematic pushbacks and an asylum-access suspension; strained, not fractured. (ECtHR; Amnesty)

Demographics - Severe: fertility ~1.32, births down sharply, a shrinking and ageing population, and crisis-era brain drain of mostly young emigrants. (ELSTAT)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.38 │ 73% │

│ mid │ +0.43 │ 73% │

│ long │ +0.49 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A reliable NATO/EU member, with structural Turkey tensions as a recurring negative-skew tail. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 75% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A NATO and committed EU member with high defence spending and deepening regional partnerships. (NATO)

Conflict Involvement - Structural tensions with Turkey (airspace, the Aegean, Cyprus, the eastern Mediterranean), periodically acute amid a fragile detente; no active conflict, but a negative-skew tail. (FDD)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An EU sanctions participant; the 2015 capital controls were fully lifted in 2019. (EC; Bank of Greece)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.40 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +2.40 │ 75% │

│ long │ +2.40 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Low crime and improving (EU-funded) infrastructure, against severe and worsening climate exposure and an austerity-hollowed health system. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 78% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.50 │ +2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.50 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Worsened near -4 -> -5: sustained wildfires forced Greece to move and otherwise disturb antiquities to protect heritage sites (NYT, Sept 1), and Morningstar DBRS ranked Greece among Europe's higher wildfire property-risk countries out to 2050 (Aug 28). A state relocating its own antiquities is a revealed-preference measure of fire severity that no seasonal statistic captures. Long held -6.

Healthcare - The universal ESY system was hollowed by austerity: high unmet need, low satisfaction, high out-of-pocket costs, and staffing gaps. (OECD Health Profile 2025)

Infrastructure - Improving via RRF/EU funds and digital leadership, but the Tempi disaster exposed deep rail-safety neglect. Net improving. (EC)

Crime Safety - Low violent crime, mostly petty theft in tourist hubs; the crime index has fallen for years. (GPI 2025)

Disaster Insurance - Among the EU's highest protection gaps - residential flood and earthquake cover very low against severe wildfire/flood/seismic exposure. (EIOPA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.98 │ 74% │

│ mid │ -1.06 │ 74% │

│ long │ -1.14 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +1.34 │ 73% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +2.24 │ 74% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +2.88 │ 74% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +1.30 │ +1.32 │ +1.34 │

│ Assets │ +2.20 │ +2.24 │ +2.27 │

│ Currency │ +2.88 │ +2.95 │ +3.01 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘