- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, ECCB, Freedom House, RSF, TI, ReliefWeb/OCHA) + international and regional press.

- The fiscal star of the Eastern Caribbean - record CBI revenue drove a ~8%-of-GDP primary surplus in 2024 and a debt path to the 60% target by ~2033 - on the East Caribbean dollar (XCD, pegged 2.70/USD).

- Standout features: the strongest fiscal position of the OECS cohort and stable democracy, against acute single-event hurricane risk (Beryl flattened Carriacou in 2024) and CBI/EU dependence.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

Record CBI-driven surpluses and large buffers on a credible debt-reduction path, peg-anchored. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - A 2024 primary surplus ~8% of GDP, deposits ~23% of GDP, and debt falling toward the 60% target by 2033, with a temporary 2025 fiscal-rule suspension for Beryl reconstruction. (IMF 2024/2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - An ECCB currency-union member - no independent monetary policy but a credible USD peg at 2.70. (ECCB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The XCD is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Moderating, broadly low single digits under the peg and ECCU stability. (IMF)

Banking Stability - The ECCU banking system is liquid and well-capitalized; small-system concentration caps the score. (ECCB FY24/25)

Trade Actions Capacity - A tiny open economy with a narrow export base (nutmeg/tourism) and no leverage - a price-taker. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.70 │ 82% │

│ mid │ +1.70 │ 82% │

│ long │ +1.70 │ 82% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Functioning courts and a stable democracy, with mid-tier corruption and some media-ownership concerns. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 60% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Functioning courts (OECS/CCJ-eligible) and stable, with CPI rank ~46/180, mid-tier for the region. (TI; Freedom House)

Statistical Integrity - Engages fully with IMF/ECCB data; capacity is thin, with typical small-state lags. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - A competent core but small, with reconstruction-execution delays noted by the IMF. (IMF)

Press Freedom - 'Free', with OECS-regional concern over political ownership of media and editorial pressure. (RSF 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - No standing armed forces. The factor reduces here to the politicization of the police or gendarmerie. It is scored positive by default. Confidence is held low, as the usual evidence base does not apply.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.76 │ 58% │

│ mid │ +2.76 │ 58% │

│ long │ +2.76 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An orderly democracy with high civil liberties, with post-Beryl displacement a localized strain. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 45% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 50% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - PM Dickon Mitchell (NDC, 2022) - an orderly democracy with peaceful transfers, the 1983 legacy long past. (Freedom House)

Civil Liberties - Freedom House 2025 score 89/100, 'Free'. (Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - No notable systemic discrimination reported, with thin data. (lower confidence)

Social Cohesion - A cohesive small society, with post-Beryl displacement in Carriacou a localized strain. (observed)

Demographics - Aging/emigration pressures common to the region, with a small workforce. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.68 │ 67% │

│ mid │ +4.68 │ 67% │

│ long │ +4.68 │ 67% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A predictable non-aligned CARICOM member, conflict-free, with CBI/EU exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A CARICOM/OECS/Commonwealth member - non-aligned and predictable. (observed)

Conflict Involvement - No conflict exposure - demilitarized and peaceful. (observed)

Sanctions Capital Controls - The CBI program is the channel for EU/US pressure, with some Schengen-suspension and de-risking risk. (EU; IMI Daily)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.33 │ 67% │

│ mid │ +3.33 │ 67% │

│ long │ +3.33 │ 67% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Acute single-event hurricane risk (Beylr/Carriacou), with reasonable regional services. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Devastated by 2004 Ivan; 2024 Beryl flattened Carriacou/Petite Martinique - a high-exposure SIDS. (IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - A basic public system, with serious cases referred off-island - a regional norm. (observed)

Infrastructure - Reasonable for the region, with reconstruction ongoing in the northern islands. (IMF)

Crime Safety - A lower violent-crime profile than St Kitts/SVG - tourism-grade safety. (observed)

Disaster Insurance - A CCRIF member (it received a Beryl payout) but coverage funds a small fraction of losses - a wide protection gap. (CCRIF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.06 │ 63% │

│ mid │ -2.31 │ 63% │

│ long │ -2.56 │ 63% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +2.41 │ 65% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +2.07 │ 70% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +2.22 │ 74% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +2.48 │ +2.44 │ +2.41 │

│ Assets │ +2.09 │ +2.07 │ +2.05 │

│ Currency │ +2.22 │ +2.22 │ +2.22 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘