- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV, World Bank, IDB, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem, WFP/UNICEF) + Guatemalan official (Banguat, INE) + Guatemalan/Spanish-language press (read indirectly).

- Macro stability and a reform-minded president besieged by an entrenched, corrupt establishment; a 2026 institutional reset partly eased the near-term siege.

- Standout drags: a deeply captured rule of law, extreme child malnutrition/inequality, and seismic/storm exposure; prudent fiscals, a credible central bank, and a young population offset. Source-lean: MODERATE Anglophone on political detail.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

Conservative fiscals and a credible central bank, with chronic under-investment the flip side. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +4.0 │ +3.50 │ +3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Very low debt (~27-30% GDP) and a small deficit on a conservative tradition; the flip side is chronic under-spending on development. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - A credible central bank with disciplined policy. (IMF; Banguat)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The quetzal is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low (~2-4%) and near target. (IMF; Banguat)

Banking Stability - Sound and well-capitalised, with IMF-flagged supervision/AML gaps. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Coffee/sugar/bananas plus textiles and nearshoring, with very large remittances (~19% of GDP); stable but low-value-added and remittance-dependent. (Banguat)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.79 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +2.68 │ 74% │

│ long │ +2.57 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A deeply captured rule of law and a criminalised press, with usable statistics. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A deeply captured 'pacto de corruptos' with weaponised prosecution; a 2026 attorney-general exit eased the near term but the courts and legislature remain captured. (TI 2025; WJP; InsightCrime)

Statistical Integrity - Usable and IMF-cited, weaker than OECD peers. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Weak and clientelist, with a low tax take starving capacity. (World Bank; IMF)

Press Freedom - Free in form but criminalised, with a prominent editor jailed and journalists exiled. (RSF; APG)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.82 │ 72% │

│ mid │ -1.98 │ 72% │

│ long │ -2.14 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A reformist president under establishment siege, against extreme malnutrition and inequality. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.50 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 85% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +2.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A reform president (elected 2023) survived coup-by-lawfare; a 2026 institutional reset partly eases the siege, but the coalition is weak and the establishment entrenched. (Atlantic Council; Americas Quarterly)

Civil Liberties - Rated 'partly free' - formal freedoms with real pressure on activists and press. (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - Limited routes; a 'safe third country' taking more US deportation flights. (MPI; State Dept)

Social Cohesion - Among the world's highest child chronic malnutrition (especially among indigenous Maya), with high inequality and deep marginalisation. (WFP; UNICEF)

Demographics - Very young - a dividend if jobs materialise, else a migration/jobs strain. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.29 │ 72% │

│ mid │ -1.54 │ 72% │

│ long │ -1.79 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A pragmatic US partner with an open economy, against gang/narco-transit violence. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A pragmatic US partner on migration/security, Taiwan-recognising. (State Dept)

Conflict Involvement - No war; gang/narco-transit violence (scored under crime). (ACLED)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open capital account, unsanctioned. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.85 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +1.85 │ 75% │

│ long │ +1.85 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Drought/storm and volcanic/seismic exposure, weak healthcare with a malnutrition crisis, and elevated crime. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Dry-corridor drought plus dual-coast storms plus highland landslides, high vulnerability, low readiness. (ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Weak and uneven, with a chronic malnutrition/stunting crisis and thin rural coverage. (World Bank; WFP)

Infrastructure - Poor-to-moderate, with uneven roads and ports. (IDB; World Bank)

Crime Safety - A homicide rate ~16/100k and rising extortion, below the regional peak but elevated. (InsightCrime)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration against high seismic/storm exposure, with World-Bank contingent finance. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.94 │ 73% │

│ mid │ -3.15 │ 73% │

│ long │ -3.36 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -1.29 │ 73% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.43 │ 73% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +1.55 │ 74% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -0.93 │ -1.11 │ -1.29 │

│ Assets │ +0.56 │ +0.43 │ +0.30 │

│ Currency │ +1.55 │ +1.44 │ +1.33 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘