- Live-data refresh (2026-06-03): news pull since the 2026-05-28 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; Iran's Hormuz-closure claims sourced to Tasnim are treated as regime intent, not verified action). A few late-May items not captured in the prior pass are flagged in-note. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, ICJ, Transparency International, Freedom House) + international and Guyanese press; reflects Maduro's January 2026 capture by US forces, which analysts read as putting the Essequibo claim on ice near-term.

- The world's fastest-growing economy - an Exxon-led offshore oil boom (~19% GDP growth, output scaling past ~900k bbl/d toward ~1.7m by 2030) transforming a once-poor nation of ~0.8m.

- Standout features: extraordinary transformational oil upside almost exactly counterbalanced by severe downside tails - weak institutions/resource-curse risk, ethnic polarization, an existentially below-sea-level coast, and the live Essequibo territorial dispute with Venezuela (before the ICJ).

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A colossal oil windfall and sovereign fund, with absorptive-capacity and Dutch-disease risk the flipside. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +4.50 │ +4.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +0.50 │ 0.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +1.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +5.50 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Surging oil revenue and a Natural Resource Fund (~US$2.57bn inflow 2024) underwrite expansionary budgets; the risk is spending discipline/absorptive capacity, not solvency. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - The Bank of Guyana runs a managed GYD kept stable by ample oil FX, with a limited toolkit and Dutch-disease appreciation pressure. (Bank of Guyana)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The GYD is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Moderate (~2.7% in 2025) despite the boom, helped by a stable managed rate. (central-bank data)

Banking Stability - Liquid and growing with the oil influx, but a small, shallow system facing rapid-credit-growth and overheating risks. (IMF 2025)

Trade Actions Capacity - Oil exports drive a massive external surplus and reserve build; the flipside is extreme single-commodity concentration and Dutch-disease risk to non-oil tradables. (IMF; CFR)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.01 │ 71% │

│ mid │ +2.66 │ 71% │

│ long │ +2.31 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

The core long-run risk - documented elite state-capture, weak enforcement, and thin absorptive capacity. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ +0.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -0.50 │ 0.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - TI flags 'state capture by elites', illicit enrichment, and attacks on activists/journalists; anti-corruption institutions exist but enforcement is weak (CPI ~39/100). (TI 2024; Stabroek News)

Statistical Integrity - Usable IMF-engaged data, but capacity is thin and oil-era data systems are still maturing. (IMF; Bureau of Statistics)

Civil Service Capacity - A small bureaucracy badly overstretched by the speed of the boom - weak absorptive/project-delivery capacity is a recurring IMF theme. (IMF 2025)

Press Freedom - A functioning press, but TI/observers cite rising intimidation of journalists and civil society. (Transparency International)

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.03 │ 64% │

│ mid │ -0.82 │ 64% │

│ long │ -0.60 │ 64% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Orderly elections amid single-party dominance and deep ethnic polarization, with enormous per-head wealth. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +1.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 65% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -1.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +1.50 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Ali (PPP/C) re-elected with a landslide (~55%) in Sept 2025 - orderly, but single-party dominance and the rise of US-sanctioned Mohamed's WIN add uncertainty. (Al Jazeera; Americas Quarterly)

Civil Liberties - Broadly free elections and expression, but institutional weakness and elite capture constrain accountability. (Freedom House; TI)

Treatment Non Citizens - Hosts Venezuelan migrants and an inflowing oil-expat workforce, with no major systematic abuse reported. (inference)

Social Cohesion - Deep Indo-/Afro-Guyanese ethnic-political polarization (PPP vs APNU) is the historic fault line, with WIN's cross-ethnic showing a tentative softening. (Americas Quarterly)

Demographics - A young median age and a tiny population (~0.8m) mean oil wealth per head is enormous, tempered by an emigration history and ~68y life expectancy. (UNFPA; Worldometer)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.51 │ 64% │

│ mid │ +0.39 │ 64% │

│ long │ +0.26 │ 64% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Deepening US/UK/CARICOM backing, against the acute Essequibo territorial dispute. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Tight, deepening US/UK/CARICOM/Exxon backing on the Essequibo dispute - a US security partner of growing strategic value. (CNBC; CARICOM)

Conflict Involvement - May 29 a Guyana Defence Force river patrol came under fire from the Venezuelan shore (one soldier wounded) during live ICJ Essequibo proceedings; Caracas denied it (WaPo, Demerara Waves, ICG). Repeated cross-border fire raises the militarized-friction floor. Near -2 -> -3.

Sanctions Capital Controls - Guyana itself is unsanctioned with an open, oil-fuelled FX position; the tail risk is regional spillover and the sanctioned profile of the new opposition figure. (IMF; Americas Quarterly)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.72 │ 67% │

│ mid │ +0.72 │ 67% │

│ long │ +0.72 │ 67% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An existentially below-sea-level coast, with oil-funded health/infrastructure build-out and low crime. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -7.50 │ -9.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -0.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ 0.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +0.50 │ 0.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - The capital plus ~90% of the population on a coast below sea level behind an aging seawall - severe SLR exposure. (WB CCDR)

Healthcare - Historically weak (shortages, thin specialist care), but very large oil-funded investment (a Mount Sinai partnership) targets rapid upgrade by 2030. (Guyana DPI; Mount Sinai)

Infrastructure - Long under-built (roads, power, drainage), now in a massive oil-funded build-out (sea defences, the Brazil road link), with execution/absorption risk. (World Bank; IMF)

Crime Safety - Comparatively low and falling - homicide ~13.6-15.6/100k in 2025, the lowest serious-crime rate in a decade, mostly interpersonal. (InSight Crime; Bureau of Statistics)

Disaster Insurance - Heavy flood/sea-level catastrophe exposure on a thin domestic insurance base, despite World-Bank-financed coastal resilience. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.59 │ 67% │

│ mid │ -2.15 │ 67% │

│ long │ -1.70 │ 67% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.02 │ 66% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.85 │ 67% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +1.80 │ 68% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -0.08 │ -0.03 │ +0.02 │

│ Assets │ +0.91 │ +0.85 │ +0.79 │

│ Currency │ +1.80 │ +1.62 │ +1.44 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘