- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF ECF/EFF, World Bank, IDB, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem, Freedom House) + Honduran official (BCH) + Honduran/Spanish press (read indirectly).

- A razor-thin, contested November-2025 election and transition amid a narco-state legacy; IMF-anchored macro is the lone bright spot.

- Standout drags: weak/narco-tainted rule of law, high crime, extreme climate vulnerability, and contested politics; remittance-cushioned macro stability offsets. Source-lean: MODERATE Anglophone on political detail.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

IMF-anchored, remittance-cushioned macro stability on a narrow, low-growth base. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ +2.50 │ +2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Falling debt and a small deficit on-track under an IMF program, remittance-cushioned but low-growth and aid-dependent. (IMF reviews 2026)

Monetary Independence - A crawling-peg lempira, partly dollarized, with limited central-bank autonomy. (IMF; BCH)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Moderate and easing toward target. (IMF; BCH)

Banking Stability - Sound-ish and developing, with AML/supervision gaps. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Maquila/textiles and coffee plus very large remittances (~27-31% of GDP) - narrow and dangerously remittance-dependent. (BCH; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.23 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +0.12 │ 74% │

│ long │ +0.01 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A narco-state legacy and captured courts, with a dangerous press environment. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -5.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A convicted (US-pardoned) drug-trafficker ex-president returned with his domestic arrest warrant CANCELLED: Juan Orlando Hernandez landed at Palmerola July 26, eight months after Trump's pardon of his 45-year US sentence, with the Honduran warrant lifted even as Pandora II corruption charges nominally remain (Reuters, Al Jazeera - wire/independent). The justice system standing down for a convicted trafficker at the political apex: worsened near -5 -> -6; long -4 -> -5; confidence held.

Statistical Integrity - Usable and IMF-cited, but weak. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Weak and patronage-ridden, with a low tax take. (World Bank; IMF)

Press Freedom - Among the most dangerous for journalists, with high impunity. (RSF; CPJ)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.44 │ 70% │

│ mid │ -3.27 │ 70% │

│ long │ -3.11 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A contested election and transition, against extreme inequality and gang presence. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -2.50 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 85% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +1.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A razor-thin, contested November-2025 election and transition with disputed legitimacy and high institutional friction. (WOLA; AS/COA)

Civil Liberties - 'Partly free,' with activist, journalist, and land-defender killings. (Freedom House 2025; HRW)

Treatment Non Citizens - A transit corridor with limited routes, a US-deportation receiver. (HRW; IOM)

Social Cohesion - Extreme inequality, gang presence, and over half the population in poverty. (World Bank; InsightCrime)

Demographics - Young - a dividend only if jobs appear, else a migration strain. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.20 │ 70% │

│ mid │ -2.16 │ 70% │

│ long │ -2.12 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A historic US partner with an open economy, against gang/narco violence. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A historic US partner after a period of friction, with the relationship transition-uncertain. (State Dept; WOLA)

Conflict Involvement - No war; gang/narco violence (scored under crime). (ACLED)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Open-ish and unsanctioned. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.79 │ 71% │

│ mid │ +0.79 │ 71% │

│ long │ +0.79 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Extreme climate vulnerability, weak healthcare, and high crime. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - The 1998 Mitch and Eta/Iota 2020 precedent - dry-corridor plus dual-coast plus low readiness. (Germanwatch CRI long-term top-10)

Healthcare - Weak and underfunded, with thin rural coverage. (World Bank; PAHO)

Infrastructure - Poor-to-moderate and uneven. (IDB; World Bank)

Crime Safety - A homicide rate ~25-31/100k - falling but high - with extortion and gangs. (InsightCrime)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration against extreme hurricane exposure. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.29 │ 73% │

│ mid │ -3.50 │ 73% │

│ long │ -3.71 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -2.23 │ 71% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -1.20 │ 72% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -0.52 │ 73% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -2.27 │ -2.25 │ -2.23 │

│ Assets │ -1.17 │ -1.20 │ -1.22 │

│ Currency │ -0.52 │ -0.55 │ -0.59 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘