- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV, EC, Eurostat, OECD, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem, BTI) + Croatian official (DZS, Croatian National Bank) + Croatian/independent press.

- A EUROZONE (since 2023) and Schengen member; a stable EU democracy with a sharply improved fiscal trajectory.

- Standout features: a falling debt ratio, sound banks, NATO/EU anchoring, and low crime, against severe demographic decline, climate/seismic exposure, and entrenched corruption. Source-lean: MODERATE Anglophone/multilateral.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A sharply improved fiscal trajectory, sound banks, and euro membership, with tourism concentration a mild risk. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt ~57% GDP, down sharply from a ~87% peak, with a deficit ~2.9% (procyclical spending a flag). (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - Pooled at the ECB - credible but not sovereign. (ECB/HNB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Uses the euro, the world's second reserve currency. (IMF COFER)

Inflation - HICP ~4.4-4.6%, above the ECB target, with easing expected. (Eurostat; IMF)

Banking Stability - Low NPLs and high capitalisation, with stress tests showing above-EU-average resilience. (HNB)

Trade Actions Capacity - Exports ~half of GDP, tourism-heavy plus manufacturing and niche shipbuilding, EU-integrated, no resource curse; tourism concentration a mild risk. (IMF; WTTC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.72 │ 85% │

│ mid │ +3.72 │ 85% │

│ long │ +3.72 │ 85% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Credible statistics and EU-fund absorption, against persistent corruption and a slow judiciary. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - An EU member and regional leader on the WJP index, but with persistent corruption and a slow judiciary. (TI; WJP; EC Rule of Law 2025)

Statistical Integrity - DZS is credible and Eurostat-compliant. (DZS; Eurostat)

Civil Service Capacity - Functional and absorbing EU recovery funds. (EC)

Press Freedom - Free, but with SLAPPs and ownership/political pressure. (RSF; EC Rule of Law 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.75 │ 79% │

│ mid │ +2.75 │ 79% │

│ long │ +2.75 │ 79% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable EU democracy with strong liberties, against severe demographic decline. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 90% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A stable democracy on a third HDZ-led term; corruption scandals but orderly. (BTI 2026)

Civil Liberties - Strong, EU-standard. (V-Dem; BTI)

Treatment Non Citizens - EU/Schengen with lawful routes and labour-importing for tourism and construction. (OECD 2025)

Social Cohesion - Relatively cohesive, with minor war-legacy/Serb-minority and regional gaps. (BTI)

Demographics - Lost ~20% of the population since independence, with mass post-accession emigration of the young and skilled and heavy ageing - a severe long-term drag. (DZS; OSW)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.54 │ 77% │

│ mid │ +2.54 │ 77% │

│ long │ +2.54 │ 77% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A reliably Western-aligned NATO/EU member with no active conflict. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A NATO and EU member, reliably Western-aligned. (NATO; EC)

Conflict Involvement - No active conflict in a stable region. (Global Peace Index)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An EU regime with an open capital account. (EC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.17 │ 82% │

│ mid │ +5.17 │ 82% │

│ long │ +5.17 │ 82% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Good tourism-grade infrastructure and low crime, against climate and seismic exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Mediterranean (Dalmatia) heat, drought, wildfire, and sea-level/coastal stress. (EEA; IPCC AR6 Mediterranean)

Healthcare - Universal and decent, with a nurse shortage and a doctor-exodus strain. (WHO Europe)

Infrastructure - Good and EU-funded, with strong tourism infrastructure. (EC; WTTC)

Crime Safety - Low, with homicide under 1/100k - a strength. (GPI; State Dept)

Disaster Insurance - An active seismic/flood market but with moderate penetration versus exposure. (World Bank/GFDRR)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.75 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +1.56 │ 74% │

│ long │ +1.38 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +2.78 │ 78% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +3.39 │ 81% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +3.70 │ 83% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +2.83 │ +2.80 │ +2.78 │

│ Assets │ +3.41 │ +3.39 │ +3.38 │

│ Currency │ +3.70 │ +3.70 │ +3.70 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘