- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-25): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-14 -> 08-25 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central; WebSearch budget exhausted mid-pass, central verification via self-hosted SearXNG + targeted fetches), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war entered an economic-strangulation phase even as exit diplomacy advanced. The US launched the global secondary-sanctions campaign 'Operation Economic Outcast' (Aug 24, 60+ designations, all-sector scope); Iran's crude exports effectively halted (Kharg Island berths empty since July 31, satellite-verified; China-bound imports ~823k -> ~534k bpd); the rial crossed 2 million per dollar; Iran fired its first ballistic missiles toward the UAE (Aug 18) and the UAE, Iran's second-largest trade partner, cut ALL trade indefinitely (Aug 19). Yet no US strike on Iranian soil was confirmed in-window and Iran-Oman Hormuz-corridor talks reached joint-statement drafting in Tehran (Aug 25). A global long-bond rout (Aug 18) set multi-decade records (UK 50Y 5.392%; JGB 10Y highest since 1996); the US Treasury doubled long-end buybacks (Aug 19), the Fed-independence fight reopened (Cook removal deadline Aug 26), and DXY hit a 3-month low with gold at a 3-month high. US-Canada trade talks collapsed (Aug 21), first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect (Aug 22), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation (eff. Sept 8). Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Russia's Black Sea grain export capacity offline and Russian inflation crossed 10%. DRC Ebola deaths reached 2,642 (PHEIC reaffirmed) while Geneva produced an M23 peace-talks roadmap. Pakistan's KP floods killed 368 in five days and Islamabad defied a Supreme Court order on Imran Khan. Venezuela freed 131 political prisoners. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the Sept-2025 Libya 'Sorman/Zawiya clashes' recirculation, Ghana's pre-window IMF completion run as fresh, Cuba's pre-window Aug 2-3 blackout, and a third clean Thailand-Cambodia verification (ceasefire holds, ASEAN observers verifying). CORRECTION: Serbia's June 27-30 Vucic resignation-pledge arc, missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since 05-28, is booked late as a note. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-20): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-14 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran war DEEPENED rather than broke pattern - the US naval blockade of Iranian ports held all window, OFAC's wind-down GL X1 EXPIRED July 17 (full Iran oil sanctions restored), the US combat death toll rose to 17 (430+ wounded) after Iran hit Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti air base July 17, and the US ran a ninth consecutive night of strikes (incl. the Darkhovin nuclear-plant site, IAEA reviewing). Iran's retaliation crossed a threshold: it struck Kuwait's power + desalination plant twice (first civilian-infrastructure targeting) and Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields (-140-150k bpd), and on July 20 the Houthis opened a new front with a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia (ending the 2022 truce). Brent ran to ~$88-90; Hormuz war-risk hull premiums held at 3-10% of value. Secondary: the EU FROZE the $44.10 Russia oil cap for one week to July 23 (the prior pass's lapse risk did NOT materialize - held, not scored as relief) with the 21st sanctions package still stalled (a narrow Kyiv-strike mini-package adopted July 17 instead); Russia's MOEX hit a 17-week losing streak (worst since 1997), the deficit overshot plan by ~1T rubles and the ruble slid ~8%/mo to ~78.6; Ukraine's Kerch Strait / Don-Azov shipping halt PERSISTED with no reopening as Russia hit Kyiv with a 41-missile barrage July 19; the Poland-Ukraine White Eagle rift DE-ESCALATED (Zelensky opened SBU archives July 17, Tusk welcomed it); Andy Burnham became UK PM July 20 (7th in a decade but a clean handover, dropped digital ID); Israel's Knesset dissolved on schedule July 17 (Oct 27 elections) after a judicial-oversight/media legislative blitz; China's Q2 GDP printed 4.3% (weakest since 2022); India's rupee broke past its defense band to ~96.4; deadly monsoon flooding hit Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal; Nicaragua's Ortega declared no more elections; Cuba logged its 5th total grid collapse of 2026; Venezuela's quake toll passed 5,200; DRC's Ebola became the fastest-growing month-on-month; Mali's JNIM/FLA reversed the Anefis gain; Morocco released journalist Ali Lmrabet; a M7.4 quake struck the Mexico-Guatemala border. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: rebuilt from independent sources (UN/World Bank/IMF, V-Dem, RSF, Freedom House, HRW, CPJ, UN OCHA, IPC, PAHO, Security Council Report) + independent press.

- Data limitation: Haitian official statistics have collapsed and figures rely on UN/INGO estimation in gang-inaccessible areas; confidence is capped accordingly.

- Standout drags: state collapse with gang control of the capital, a hyperinflationary economy, a collapsed health system with famine pockets, and catastrophic crime. Among the most negative profiles in the dataset.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A collapsed, aid-dependent, hyperinflationary economy with a gang-strangled capital. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 70% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 50% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 60% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Aid-dependent, in multi-year contraction, with no functioning tax base and a gang-paralyzed capital economy. (World Bank/IMF; OCHA)

Monetary Independence - A barely-functional central bank, partly dollarized, with no real policy transmission. (IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The gourde is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Around 28% with a hyperinflationary multi-year cumulative. (IMF WEO)

Banking Stability - Functioning only in shrinking safe zones, gang-disrupted with broken cash logistics. (press; OCHA)

Trade Actions Capacity - Collapsed apparel/remittance economy with the capital's port gang-strangled and routes blockaded. (Security Council Report; UNODC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.38 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -6.38 │ 58% │

│ long │ -6.38 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

State collapse - no elected government, gangs governing the capital, collapsed data, journalists killed. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 45% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 65% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘

Rule Of Law - No elected government; gangs control ~85%+ of the capital (taxing, judging), with a non-functional judiciary. (NPR; UN)

Statistical Integrity - Collapsed - insufficient reliable data. (inferred)

Civil Service Capacity - Held at -9, confidence 0.55 -> 0.6: US and Haitian officials responded to the massacre by calling for accelerated deployment of the UN-backed Gang Suppression Force, which is an admission that the state cannot currently secure territory it nominally holds.

Press Freedom - A poor RSF standing, with journalists killed by gangs and operating in exile under impunity. (RSF; CPJ)

Civil-Military Relations - No effective state monopoly on the use of force. Armed factions, militias, or rival command structures operate outside any single chain of command. Civilian control is absent here as a category.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -8.89 │ 56% │

│ mid │ -8.89 │ 56% │

│ long │ -8.89 │ 56% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

No elected government, gang rule of the capital, mass displacement, and mass sexual violence. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 72% │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 45% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 50% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘

Political Stability - HELD at the -10 floor, confidence 0.7 -> 0.72: MSS mandate still expires Sept 30 with renewal requested Sept 3-4 (Reuters, Al Jazeera) but no UNSC vote found in this window. The cliff is nine days away and remains the binding near-term risk. Score cannot go lower.

Civil Liberties - Collapsed under gang rule, with mass sexual violence and movement restrictions. (HRW; OCHA)

Treatment Non Citizens - A mass-emigration state, not a destination. (inferred)

Social Cohesion - Gang-fractured, with ~1.4M internally displaced (~12% of the population). (OCHA)

Demographics - Young but catastrophe-stricken, with brain-drain emigration. (UN)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -8.77 │ 55% │

│ mid │ -8.77 │ 55% │

│ long │ -8.77 │ 55% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

No sovereign capacity, dependent on a UN-backed security mission, in a gang-warfare collapse. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 55% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 65% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - No sovereign capacity; reliant on a UN-backed mission after the Kenya-led MSS wound down, with recurring transition failures. (Security Council Report)

Conflict Involvement - A quasi-civil gang war, with thousands killed in 2025. (Security Council Report; UNODC)

Sanctions Capital Controls - A UN arms embargo and targeted gang sanctions, with limited enforcement - isolated. (UN News)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.72 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -6.72 │ 58% │

│ long │ -6.72 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Extreme disaster exposure, a collapsed health system with famine pockets, and catastrophic crime. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -8.0 │ -8.50 │ -9.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘

Climate - The lowest-readiness state in the hemisphere - deforestation plus hurricanes plus drought plus collapsed governance. (ND-GAIN; IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - Collapsed, with cholera resurgence and IPC-5 famine pockets; only a fraction of capital hospitals operating. (PAHO; IPC)

Infrastructure - Gang-controlled routes and ports, with storm damage. (Security Council Report; OCHA)

Crime Safety - Worsened -9 -> -10, back to the floor: a gang massacre at a church and displacement site in Kenscoff killed at least 47 on Aug 25, prompting an emergency UN Security Council session (NYT, corroborated across Caribbean National Weekly, La Voce di New York and others). Kenscoff is in the hills above Port-au-Prince, so this is territorial expansion beyond the capital. The -10 to -9 easing booked on 2026-07-20 for Gang Suppression Force gains is reversed; those gains did not hold.

Disaster Insurance - Negligible penetration against extreme exposure. (inferred)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -9.25 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -9.35 │ 59% │

│ long │ -9.46 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -8.45 │ 57% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -7.58 │ 57% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -7.04 │ 57% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -8.42 │ -8.43 │ -8.45 │

│ Assets │ -7.57 │ -7.58 │ -7.60 │

│ Currency │ -7.04 │ -7.04 │ -7.04 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘