- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-07): news pull since the 2026-06-18 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire proved repeatedly reversible (remote MoU June 17 + 60-day Burgenstock roadmap June 21, then a Kiku-tanker strike -> US strikes on 5 Iranian sites -> Iranian retaliation on US bases in Kuwait/Bahrain June 27-28 -> fresh Saudi/Qatari tanker strikes July 7 -> Trump 'finish the job'), even as verified relief landed (OFAC General License X, a 60-day Iranian-oil-export waiver ~$8-9B) and Hormuz volumes recovered to ~90% of pre-war baseline. Iran's $24B/$12B frozen-asset claim stays Mehr/parliamentary-sourced and US-denied -> excluded. Secondary: Russia's refinery/fuel crisis + deficit blowout (160% of the annual target, exile-press sourced); Ukraine's EU-accession progress + NATO 140bn-euro pledge vs the deadliest Kyiv strikes of the year; Venezuela's twin quake + constitutional-legality shock; certified-but-contested elections in Peru (Fujimori) and Colombia (de la Espriella); Bolivia's blockade crisis easing under a state of emergency; US inflation topping 4% and SCOTUS striking the birthright-citizenship order while domestic-terrorism sentences and ICE-detention deaths mount; China's rare-earth coercion + HK Article 23 expansion; India's near-final US trade deal vs a press-freedom slide; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk watch. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-18): news pull since the 2026-06-15 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; the US-Iran deal's $24B frozen-asset release / upfront tranche remains Iranian-state-media-sourced (Mehr) and US-rejected, treated as unverified regime framing - only the framework MoU + its June 19 Buergenstock signing are independently confirmed). Dominant mover: the US-Iran framework hardened toward its June 19 signing in Switzerland (MoU signed electronically by both sides June 17) but stays a non-final 60-day framework with terms disputed (US 'pay-for-performance'), the Strait of Hormuz still physically near-shut (~7 ships transited vs 550+ stranded; ~4-6 month export recovery), and Israeli ops in Lebanon continuing - so scores firm modestly along the resolution path without fully reversing. Secondary: a hawkish first FOMC under Chair Warsh, Ukraine's Fundamentals accession cluster opening (Luxembourg IGC June 15) + the G7 Evian summit, an HRW report on the US Minnesota deployment, Hungary's PM-term-limit amendment, Japan's BOJ hike to 1.0%, a terror attack on Niamey's airport, and Equatorial Guinea's full-cabinet resignation. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/politics rebuilt from independent sources (IMF Art IV 2025, EC, Eurostat, RSF, V-Dem, Freedom House, TI, Verfassungsblog, ECFR/PIIE) + independent/international press; pro-government captured outlets EXCLUDED there, with KSH/MNB data used only where EU/IMF-validated.

- Pivotal event: the long-entrenched Fidesz government lost the April-2026 election (high turnout) to a reform challenger pledging restored rule of law, EU-fund unfreezing, and EU/NATO re-anchoring. Near-term scores remain scarred by the captured legacy; the reform turn is promised, not delivered.

- Standout drags: deep prior rule-of-law erosion, captured media, a hostile asylum regime, and demographic decline; the upside is an asymmetric reform/recovery trajectory. Source-lean: MODERATE, pro-democracy-tilted - so near-term institutional scores were kept negative deliberately.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A strong export base and easing inflation, against a deficit, frozen-funds drag now plausibly reversing, and a China-FDI concentration bet. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -3.0 │ -2.50 │ -2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.50 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Deficit ~4.6-4.8% GDP with debt ~73.5% rising, and a frozen-EU-funds drag now plausibly reversing after the 2026 election. (IMF Art IV 2025; EC)

Monetary Independence - The MNB is credible on price stability (rate ~6.5%) but is rebuilding independence after an unorthodox-policy era. (MNB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The forint (an EU non-eurozone currency) is not a reserve asset. (definitional)

Inflation - Eased from an extreme 2022-23 peak toward the ~3% target. (EC; MNB)

Banking Stability - Sound and well-capitalised, distorted by bank surtaxes and bond-holding coercion that are expected to phase out. (EC In-Depth Review)

Trade Actions Capacity - A strong auto/manufacturing export base, but a heavy Chinese EV/battery FDI bet brings concentration and EU-trade-friction risk. (MERICS/Rhodium; FT)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.77 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +0.93 │ 75% │

│ long │ +1.09 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Usable EU-validated statistics, against deep prior rule-of-law erosion and captured media now facing a reform turn. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 67% │ -4.0 │ -1.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +2.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -1.50 │ 0.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - PM Magyar's government cleared the final EU hurdle to unlock 10bn euros of frozen Recovery and Resilience funds (ECOFIN approval July 10), tied to its 'Cleansing Fire' reform push and conditional on reforms completed by Aug 31 - an EU vote of confidence in the rule-of-law trajectory, though the broader constitutional/judiciary purge saw no confirmed new in-window enactment milestone (Euronews, Council of the EU - independent/multilateral). Held near -4 / long 2; confidence up.

Statistical Integrity - KSH economic data is EU/Eurostat-validated and usable, against broader governance opacity. (Eurostat)

Civil Service Capacity - Capable but politicised/clientelist, with de-politicisation likely to begin. (OECD)

Press Freedom - Heavily captured (a poor RSF standing, a large pro-government media conglomerate, public media as a mouthpiece), with the 2026 alternation opening the first real opportunity in years. (RSF; IPI)

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.29 │ 66% │

│ mid │ +1.08 │ 66% │

│ long │ +2.44 │ 66% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A high-turnout democratic alternation, against legally entrenched civil-liberty limits, a hostile asylum regime, and demographic decline. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ 0.0 │ +1.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -1.50 │ 0.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Parliament passed a constitutional amendment June 15 capping prime ministers at 8 years (135-50), institutionally entrenching the peaceful turnover from Viktor Orban to Peter Magyar after Orban's April election defeat and blocking his return (Bloomberg, Al Jazeera - independent). A democratic-consolidation signal. Near -1 -> 0, long 1 -> 2; confidence up; positive skew reinforced.

Civil Liberties - Declining under the prior government (LGBT and 'Pride' restrictions, NGO/academic pressure), with a reversal expected but legally entrenched. (Freedom House; FIDH)

Treatment Non Citizens - A hostile asylum regime (sanctioned by the EU's top court) with selective guest-worker schemes; a policy shift is uncertain. (CJEU; UNHCR)

Social Cohesion - Deeply polarised and nationalist, with the alternation channelling cohesion risk through the ballot. (V-Dem)

Demographics - Low fertility (~1.5) despite costly family policy, with ageing and emigration. (Eurostat; KSH)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.09 │ 73% │

│ mid │ -1.60 │ 73% │

│ long │ -1.11 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A former EU spoiler whose reliability is set to rise as the new government re-anchors in the EU/NATO. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +3.50 │ +5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Long the bloc's chief Russia/China-friendly spoiler (vetoes, Ukraine-aid obstruction); the incoming government is set to drop the veto and re-anchor in the EU/NATO - reliability rising but unproven. (PIIE; ECFR)

Conflict Involvement - No direct conflict, war-adjacent (it borders Ukraine) with modest spillover and energy exposure. (general)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An EU regime with an open capital account; the prior obstructor stance is likely to turn constructive. (EU)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.72 │ 73% │

│ mid │ +1.29 │ 73% │

│ long │ +1.87 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

EU-upgraded infrastructure and low crime, against an underfunded health system and moderate climate exposure. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 68% │ -1.0 │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Pannonian-basin heat and intensifying drought on key agriculture, moderate readiness. (ND-GAIN; EEA)

Healthcare - Universal but chronically underfunded, with doctor emigration and high forgone care. (OECD; WHO)

Infrastructure - Decent and EU-fund-upgraded (road, rail, digital). (EC)

Crime Safety - Low violent crime - a clear strength. (Eurostat)

Disaster Insurance - A developing flood market with uneven penetration. (regional)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.0 │ 69% │

│ mid │ +0.80 │ 69% │

│ long │ +0.60 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.82 │ 70% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.75 │ 72% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +0.43 │ 73% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -0.44 │ +0.19 │ +0.82 │

│ Assets │ +0.25 │ +0.75 │ +1.25 │

│ Currency │ +0.43 │ +0.88 │ +1.34 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘