- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-25): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-14 -> 08-25 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central; WebSearch budget exhausted mid-pass, central verification via self-hosted SearXNG + targeted fetches), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war entered an economic-strangulation phase even as exit diplomacy advanced. The US launched the global secondary-sanctions campaign 'Operation Economic Outcast' (Aug 24, 60+ designations, all-sector scope); Iran's crude exports effectively halted (Kharg Island berths empty since July 31, satellite-verified; China-bound imports ~823k -> ~534k bpd); the rial crossed 2 million per dollar; Iran fired its first ballistic missiles toward the UAE (Aug 18) and the UAE, Iran's second-largest trade partner, cut ALL trade indefinitely (Aug 19). Yet no US strike on Iranian soil was confirmed in-window and Iran-Oman Hormuz-corridor talks reached joint-statement drafting in Tehran (Aug 25). A global long-bond rout (Aug 18) set multi-decade records (UK 50Y 5.392%; JGB 10Y highest since 1996); the US Treasury doubled long-end buybacks (Aug 19), the Fed-independence fight reopened (Cook removal deadline Aug 26), and DXY hit a 3-month low with gold at a 3-month high. US-Canada trade talks collapsed (Aug 21), first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect (Aug 22), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation (eff. Sept 8). Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Russia's Black Sea grain export capacity offline and Russian inflation crossed 10%. DRC Ebola deaths reached 2,642 (PHEIC reaffirmed) while Geneva produced an M23 peace-talks roadmap. Pakistan's KP floods killed 368 in five days and Islamabad defied a Supreme Court order on Imran Khan. Venezuela freed 131 political prisoners. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the Sept-2025 Libya 'Sorman/Zawiya clashes' recirculation, Ghana's pre-window IMF completion run as fresh, Cuba's pre-window Aug 2-3 blackout, and a third clean Thailand-Cambodia verification (ceasefire holds, ASEAN observers verifying). CORRECTION: Serbia's June 27-30 Vucic resignation-pledge arc, missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since 05-28, is booked late as a note. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV 2025, World Bank, ADB, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem) + Indonesian official (BPS, Bank Indonesia) + regional independent press (Jakarta Post, Tempo, Nikkei Asia, East Asia Forum).

- Politics: a Prabowo government since Oct 2024 with a broad coalition (stable mandate) against 2025 austerity protests and democratic-backsliding/military-role concerns.

- Standout drags: weak rule of law and endemic corruption, severe seismic/flood disaster exposure, and a sinking capital. Source-lean: MODERATE-HIGH Anglophone; Bahasa-Indonesia primary press read only indirectly.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

Low debt under a legal ceiling, a credible central bank, and low inflation, with rising state intervention in resource exports the watch-item. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt ~40% GDP under a 60% legal ceiling, deficit ~2.9% near the 3% legal limit; a high interest bill and new Prabowo spending (a free-meals program) erode credibility. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Monetary Independence - Improved +3 -> +4. CARRY-FORWARD RESOLVED: Destry Damayanti, acting governor since Warjiyo's abrupt June resignation, was endorsed by House Commission XI on Aug 27, confirmed by the full plenary on Sept 1, and sworn in as permanent Bank Indonesia governor on Sept 2, with Aida Budiman elevated to senior deputy (Reuters, Jakarta Post, Malay Mail; Antara is the state wire and is used only for the administrative fact). The JCI rose 1.14% on the confirmation, so markets read it as resolving rather than deepening the uncertainty. Not restored to the pre-resignation +5: a governor confirmed through a political process after a shock resignation leaves the institution demonstrably more exposed than before.

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The rupiah is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and within the 2.5 plus or minus 1% band. (Bank Indonesia)

Banking Stability - Sound and well-capitalised, with IMF-noted resilience. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Trade Actions Capacity - A large commodity base (top nickel/coal/palm) plus manufacturing, but downstreaming policy and a 2026 move to route key exports via state firms raise distortion and paradox-of-plenty risk. (CSIS; Lowy)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.91 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +2.91 │ 74% │

│ long │ +2.91 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Usable official statistics, undercut by endemic corruption, a weakened anti-graft body, and declining press freedom. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Endemic corruption, the anti-graft KPK gutted since the 2019 law, and declining judicial independence (TI CPI ~34). (Transparency International 2025)

Statistical Integrity - BPS is usable and credible; 2025 budget cuts are a watch-item. (IMF uses BPS data)

Civil Service Capacity - Mixed: patronage and active-duty generals placed in civilian posts. (HRW; East Asia Forum)

Press Freedom - RSF 127/180 ('difficult'), with a collapsing safety indicator amid police/military intimidation. (RSF 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - A documented reversal of a completed reform. The March 2025 revision of the TNI law expanded the number of civilian government posts that active-duty officers may occupy. That unwound a core plank of the post-1998 reformasi settlement. The settlement had removed the military from civilian administration. The direction of travel is what is scored here.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.73 │ 69% │

│ mid │ -1.73 │ 69% │

│ long │ -1.73 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A favourable demographic dividend, against declining civil liberties and a backsliding trend under a new government. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A Prabowo government (since Oct 2024) with a large coalition and stable mandate, against 2025 austerity protests, a military-law revision, and backsliding. (East Asia Forum; HRW)

Civil Liberties - Declining: blasphemy/defamation laws, 2025 protest crackdowns, and digital intimidation. (HRW; RSF)

Treatment Non Citizens - A second-home/investor KITAS plus retirement routes (Bali popular); lawful but bureaucratic. (immigration regulations)

Social Cohesion - Pluralist (Pancasila) but with rising religious conservatism and Papua/regional tensions. (V-Dem; regional press)

Demographics - A young, large workforce in an open dividend window. (BPS; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.46 │ 70% │

│ mid │ +0.46 │ 70% │

│ long │ +0.46 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A non-aligned ASEAN leader hedging the major powers, with low direct conflict exposure. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Non-aligned ASEAN leadership, hedging the US and China, having joined BRICS in 2025 while pursuing OECD accession - predictable non-alignment rather than bloc reliability. (The Diplomat; CSIS)

Conflict Involvement - Natuna/South China Sea friction with China, with low direct conflict. (CSIS; East Asia Forum)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Broadly open, though 2026 state-firm export-routing and downstreaming bans signal rising intervention. (IMF; regional press)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.54 │ 69% │

│ mid │ +2.54 │ 69% │

│ long │ +2.54 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Improving infrastructure and near-universal health coverage, against extreme seismic/flood exposure and a sinking capital. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -5.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 72% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - A vast archipelago - sea-level rise (sinking Jakarta), coastal/delta exposure, heat; improving but limited readiness. (WB CCDR; IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - BPJS/JKN near-universal coverage (~250m) but uneven in quality and low in per-capita spend. (WHO; World Bank)

Infrastructure - Worsened 1 -> 0: Anak Krakatau eruption Sept 5-6 forced closure of Jakarta's Soekarno-Hatta and seven other airports, stranding 170,000 passengers (WaPo, Al Jazeera, AFP). Qantas cancelled Jakarta flights. AFP confirmed some viral video was old footage; the eruption and airport closures are independently verified. Confidence 0.75 -> 0.72 reflecting episodic rather than structural damage.

Crime Safety - Moderate, with reduced terrorism risk. (general)

Disaster Insurance - Very low catastrophe-insurance penetration against extreme seismic/flood exposure. (GFDRR)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.39 │ 69% │

│ mid │ -1.61 │ 69% │

│ long │ -1.82 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -0.14 │ 70% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +1.05 │ 71% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +1.85 │ 72% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -0.08 │ -0.11 │ -0.14 │

│ Assets │ +1.07 │ +1.05 │ +1.03 │

│ Currency │ +1.85 │ +1.85 │ +1.85 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘