- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-25): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-14 -> 08-25 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central; WebSearch budget exhausted mid-pass, central verification via self-hosted SearXNG + targeted fetches), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war entered an economic-strangulation phase even as exit diplomacy advanced. The US launched the global secondary-sanctions campaign 'Operation Economic Outcast' (Aug 24, 60+ designations, all-sector scope); Iran's crude exports effectively halted (Kharg Island berths empty since July 31, satellite-verified; China-bound imports ~823k -> ~534k bpd); the rial crossed 2 million per dollar; Iran fired its first ballistic missiles toward the UAE (Aug 18) and the UAE, Iran's second-largest trade partner, cut ALL trade indefinitely (Aug 19). Yet no US strike on Iranian soil was confirmed in-window and Iran-Oman Hormuz-corridor talks reached joint-statement drafting in Tehran (Aug 25). A global long-bond rout (Aug 18) set multi-decade records (UK 50Y 5.392%; JGB 10Y highest since 1996); the US Treasury doubled long-end buybacks (Aug 19), the Fed-independence fight reopened (Cook removal deadline Aug 26), and DXY hit a 3-month low with gold at a 3-month high. US-Canada trade talks collapsed (Aug 21), first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect (Aug 22), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation (eff. Sept 8). Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Russia's Black Sea grain export capacity offline and Russian inflation crossed 10%. DRC Ebola deaths reached 2,642 (PHEIC reaffirmed) while Geneva produced an M23 peace-talks roadmap. Pakistan's KP floods killed 368 in five days and Islamabad defied a Supreme Court order on Imran Khan. Venezuela freed 131 political prisoners. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the Sept-2025 Libya 'Sorman/Zawiya clashes' recirculation, Ghana's pre-window IMF completion run as fresh, Cuba's pre-window Aug 2-3 blackout, and a third clean Thailand-Cambodia verification (ceasefire holds, ASEAN observers verifying). CORRECTION: Serbia's June 27-30 Vucic resignation-pledge arc, missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since 05-28, is booked late as a note. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-20): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-14 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran war DEEPENED rather than broke pattern - the US naval blockade of Iranian ports held all window, OFAC's wind-down GL X1 EXPIRED July 17 (full Iran oil sanctions restored), the US combat death toll rose to 17 (430+ wounded) after Iran hit Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti air base July 17, and the US ran a ninth consecutive night of strikes (incl. the Darkhovin nuclear-plant site, IAEA reviewing). Iran's retaliation crossed a threshold: it struck Kuwait's power + desalination plant twice (first civilian-infrastructure targeting) and Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields (-140-150k bpd), and on July 20 the Houthis opened a new front with a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia (ending the 2022 truce). Brent ran to ~$88-90; Hormuz war-risk hull premiums held at 3-10% of value. Secondary: the EU FROZE the $44.10 Russia oil cap for one week to July 23 (the prior pass's lapse risk did NOT materialize - held, not scored as relief) with the 21st sanctions package still stalled (a narrow Kyiv-strike mini-package adopted July 17 instead); Russia's MOEX hit a 17-week losing streak (worst since 1997), the deficit overshot plan by ~1T rubles and the ruble slid ~8%/mo to ~78.6; Ukraine's Kerch Strait / Don-Azov shipping halt PERSISTED with no reopening as Russia hit Kyiv with a 41-missile barrage July 19; the Poland-Ukraine White Eagle rift DE-ESCALATED (Zelensky opened SBU archives July 17, Tusk welcomed it); Andy Burnham became UK PM July 20 (7th in a decade but a clean handover, dropped digital ID); Israel's Knesset dissolved on schedule July 17 (Oct 27 elections) after a judicial-oversight/media legislative blitz; China's Q2 GDP printed 4.3% (weakest since 2022); India's rupee broke past its defense band to ~96.4; deadly monsoon flooding hit Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal; Nicaragua's Ortega declared no more elections; Cuba logged its 5th total grid collapse of 2026; Venezuela's quake toll passed 5,200; DRC's Ebola became the fastest-growing month-on-month; Mali's JNIM/FLA reversed the Anefis gain; Morocco released journalist Ali Lmrabet; a M7.4 quake struck the Mexico-Guatemala border. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-07): news pull since the 2026-06-18 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire proved repeatedly reversible (remote MoU June 17 + 60-day Burgenstock roadmap June 21, then a Kiku-tanker strike -> US strikes on 5 Iranian sites -> Iranian retaliation on US bases in Kuwait/Bahrain June 27-28 -> fresh Saudi/Qatari tanker strikes July 7 -> Trump 'finish the job'), even as verified relief landed (OFAC General License X, a 60-day Iranian-oil-export waiver ~$8-9B) and Hormuz volumes recovered to ~90% of pre-war baseline. Iran's $24B/$12B frozen-asset claim stays Mehr/parliamentary-sourced and US-denied -> excluded. Secondary: Russia's refinery/fuel crisis + deficit blowout (160% of the annual target, exile-press sourced); Ukraine's EU-accession progress + NATO 140bn-euro pledge vs the deadliest Kyiv strikes of the year; Venezuela's twin quake + constitutional-legality shock; certified-but-contested elections in Peru (Fujimori) and Colombia (de la Espriella); Bolivia's blockade crisis easing under a state of emergency; US inflation topping 4% and SCOTUS striking the birthright-citizenship order while domestic-terrorism sentences and ICE-detention deaths mount; China's rare-earth coercion + HK Article 23 expansion; India's near-final US trade deal vs a press-freedom slide; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk watch. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-03): news pull since the 2026-05-28 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; Iran's Hormuz-closure claims sourced to Tasnim are treated as regime intent, not verified action). A few late-May items not captured in the prior pass are flagged in-note. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV 2025, World Bank, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem, Freedom House) + Indian official (MoSPI, RBI) + Indian independent press (The Hindu, Indian Express, Scroll.in, The Wire, Down to Earth).

- Politics: a Modi/BJP-led NDA third term that lost its outright single-party majority in 2024 - stable but coalition-dependent - against a multi-year democratic-backsliding trend.

- Standout drags: democratic backsliding, very low press freedom, severe climate/air-quality exposure, and weak public healthcare. Source-lean: HIGH Anglophone, since Indian official and elite-press output is largely in English.

- Recalibrated 2026-05-29 for the 2026 Iran war (Operation Epic Fury, US+Israel vs Iran from 28 Feb) and the Strait of Hormuz closure: blockade of ~1/5 of world oil+LNG, attacks/threats on Gulf desalination (water security), and the global energy shock. The two-week 8 Apr ceasefire collapsed by late May - the US renewed strikes on Iran ~25-26 May (Trump convened Camp David) and the war resumed, with Hormuz still blockaded. (Reuters; BBC; NYT; CNN; ISW; Al Jazeera; CSIS; Wikipedia)

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

Strong nominal growth, a credible central bank, and cleaned-up banks, against a high public-debt load and an acute near-term external-tariff shock. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -1.0 │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ 0.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 78% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ -1.0 │ +0.50 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Improved near -2 -> -1: the 2026 FCNR(B) diaspora deposit scheme drew $127.2 billion, roughly four times the 2013 scheme, with total forex inflow above $136 billion as of Aug 31. Diaspora deposits at that scale are a genuine external buffer. The headline GDP figure is deliberately NOT used here given Rajan's challenge to it. Long held -3.

Monetary Independence - Held at +3: the rupee held ~95.6-95.7/USD through the window (vs the 96.84 weak record), the RBI held at 5.25% (Aug 5, fourth hold) while raising FY27 growth to 6.7% and cutting the inflation forecast to 5.0%, and >$2.5B of August FPI equity inflows offset oil-driven pressure. Managed stability inside the band the July cut to +3 anticipated.

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The rupee is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - ~50% of crude imports transit Hormuz (~2.6 mb/d from the Gulf); the renewed full-closure threat and a ~7% oil spike (~June 1) re-elevate import-cost inflation (CNBC). Near 0 -> -2. (Separately, MOSPI reported FY25-26 GDP +7.6% on May 29; self-reported, so noted but not scored.)

Banking Stability - Post-NPA cleanup complete: gross NPAs ~2.1% (a multi-decade low), strong capital and profitability; emerging unsecured-retail risk. (RBI FSR)

Trade Actions Capacity - The US-India trade deal STALLED after appearing '99% done': Commerce Minister Goyal said it stays on hold unless the US offers competitive terms, and India pulled back as the July 24 tariff-arrangement deadline (the temporary 25%->18% cut) approaches - brinkmanship replacing the prior pass's optimism (The Diplomat, Business Standard - independent). Near 0 -> -1; long held 2; confidence held.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.41 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +0.71 │ 75% │

│ long │ +1.0 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Independent courts and credible electoral machinery, undercut by backlogs, selective enforcement, and a very low press-freedom standing. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 68% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Anti-terror and national-security laws are increasingly instrumentalized against dissent and media (CPJ, RSF - independent). Worsened -1 -> -2; confidence held.

Statistical Integrity - Worsened -1 -> -2: former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan publicly challenged the Q1 FY27 GDP print of 7.8%, questioning why headline growth of that size is not translating into job creation. A former central bank governor publicly disputing the national accounts is the strongest available independent check on a country reporting on itself, and it cuts against the figure.

Civil Service Capacity - Capable technocratic pockets (the RBI, the Election Commission machinery) against broad bureaucratic slowness. (observed)

Press Freedom - RSF 151/180 ('very serious'): ownership concentration, political interference, and reporter-safety problems. (RSF 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - Unbroken civilian control since independence. That is the outlier record in its region and a genuine institutional strength. It is scored below the professional band because of the increasing political use of military operations and symbolism. The creation of the Chief of Defence Staff post also concentrated senior command influence without a matching increase in legislative oversight capacity.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.18 │ 69% │

│ mid │ -1.18 │ 69% │

│ long │ -1.18 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A genuine demographic dividend, offset by democratic backsliding, restricted civil liberties, and communal tensions. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 78% │ +5.0 │ +3.50 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Held at 1 with confidence up: the mass youth 'Cockroach' protests over the NEET-UG paper leak extracted Education Minister Pradhan's resignation July 25, and the protesters stood down 'in good faith' - a cabinet scalp taken by street mobilization, resolved non-violently within institutions (France24, Al Jazeera, NBC - wire/independent). Accountability functioning under pressure cuts both ways; the peaceful resolution holds the score.

Civil Liberties - RSF's 2026 World Press Freedom Index dropped India to 157th/180 (down 6), citing violence against journalists and weaponized anti-terror/national-security laws; concrete in/near-window incidents include journalists beaten in Jharkhand and the MEitY 'Sahyog' portal enabling ~3-hour platform takedowns (The Diplomat, CPJ, Civicus - independent; Modi-aligned framing excluded). Worsened -4 -> -5; confidence up.

Treatment Non Citizens - Limited long-term routes for non-Indians; OCI status for the diaspora only; not a relocation-friendly regime. (statute)

Social Cohesion - Communal and religious tensions, caste cleavages, and sharp regional fault lines. (observed)

Demographics - The world's most populous country with a median age ~29 and a large working-age share - a genuine dividend; sub-replacement fertility (~1.9) means the window narrows. (UNFPA 2025)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.25 │ 72% │

│ mid │ -1.40 │ 72% │

│ long │ -1.56 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Pragmatic strategic autonomy, against live tensions with Pakistan and along the China border. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 72% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 68% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Improved 1 -> 2: India hosted the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi Sept 12-13 with Xi attending for the first time in seven years and a unanimous declaration on local-currency trade and Global South positioning (multiple outlets). August goods exports rose 26% YoY to $43.81B (Business Standard, Sept 15). Confidence 0.68 -> 0.72.

Conflict Involvement - A May 2025 flare-up with Pakistan (Operation Sindoor, then a ceasefire) and an unresolved China LAC standoff - mostly disengaged but sensitive. (Stimson; Carnegie)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Managed capital controls; no major sanctions regime against it. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.23 │ 70% │

│ mid │ -0.23 │ 70% │

│ long │ -0.23 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Fast-improving infrastructure, against severe climate/air-quality exposure, weak public healthcare, and low catastrophe-insurance cover. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 68% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Severe heatwaves/wet-bulb in the north plains, monsoon variability, water stress, coastal flooding; large but uneven adaptive capacity. (IPCC AR6; ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Low public health spend (~1.9% GDP) and high out-of-pocket costs, with a strong private/medical-tourism tier; very uneven. (World Bank)

Infrastructure - Improving fast (digital public infrastructure/UPI, highways) but congested and uneven. (observed)

Crime Safety - Moderate with wide regional variation; serious women's-safety concerns and low conviction rates. (NCRB)

Disaster Insurance - Low catastrophe-insurance penetration (~half the global average) against high hazard exposure. (IRDAI; Swiss Re)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.56 │ 69% │

│ mid │ -2.78 │ 69% │

│ long │ -3.0 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -1.17 │ 71% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -0.43 │ 72% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -0.06 │ 73% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -1.10 │ -1.13 │ -1.17 │

│ Assets │ -0.51 │ -0.43 │ -0.34 │

│ Currency │ -0.06 │ +0.11 │ +0.28 │

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