- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: triangulated across multilateral bodies (IMF Article IV, OECD, World Justice Project, RSF, Transparency International) + Irish official stats (CSO, Central Bank, Fiscal Council) + Irish press (Irish Times, RTE, The Journal).

- Economic reality is read via GNI* (modified gross national income), not GDP, which multinational/IP accounting massively distorts; corporate-tax receipts are dangerously concentrated in a few US multinationals - a real fiscal vulnerability.

- Caveat: Ireland is itself Anglophone, so the 'language of the place' offers no outside-language check; EU/Eurostat/ECB were the available non-Anglophone cross-checks.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

Strong headline numbers built on a concentrated, externally exposed multinational base; best read via GNI*. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +3.50 │ +2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 75% │ 0.0 │ +1.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 72% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -1.50 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Headline surpluses (2025 ~3.3% of GNI*) funded by highly concentrated multinational corporate tax; excluding that windfall the underlying balance is a deficit; two sovereign savings funds are being seeded. Read via GNI*, not GDP. (IMF 2026 Art IV; Irish Fiscal Advisory Council)

Monetary Independence - Eurozone - the ECB is credible and independent; no national monetary control. (ECB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Eurozone member; the euro is the #2 global reserve currency, a modest shared benefit. (IMF COFER)

Inflation - HICP ~3.6% (Apr 2026), near the euro-area top on energy; projected back toward 2% by ~2028. (CSO, Central Bank of Ireland)

Banking Stability - Rebuilt post-2008; a concentrated three-pillar system (AIB/BoI/PTSB) with sound liquidity; leveraged finance and commercial real estate the watch-items. (IMF; Central Bank of Ireland)

Trade Actions Capacity - A pharma/tech export hub acutely exposed to US tariff and tax-reform risk (2026 Section 232 pharma tariffs; OECD Pillar Two); a handful of US multinationals drive exports and corporate-tax receipts - a real concentration vulnerability. No resource curse. (Irish Times; Fiscal Council)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.65 │ 80% │

│ mid │ +2.50 │ 80% │

│ long │ +2.35 │ 80% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An excellent common-law baseline and pioneering statistics, with mild press-ownership and political-finance watch-items. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 82% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 72% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - WJP #8/143; a strong common-law system; mild civil-justice weakening noted. (WJP 2025)

Statistical Integrity - The CSO is independent and high-quality; it pioneered GNI* to correct the GDP distortion. (CSO, Eurostat)

Civil Service Capacity - Capable, but with housing/infrastructure delivery and health-service execution gaps; Transparency International flags political-finance 'dark money'. (TI Ireland 2025; OECD)

Press Freedom - RSF ~#15 (2025, 'good'), but highly concentrated media ownership, an RTE funding crisis, and a 2025 defamation reform critics call weak on anti-SLAPP. (RSF; Index on Censorship)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, backed by tested parliamentary oversight and a long unbroken record of apolitical command.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.68 │ 77% │

│ mid │ +5.68 │ 77% │

│ long │ +5.68 │ 77% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable governing core and a standout citizenship-by-descent route, against rising migration-driven social strain. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +4.50 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 82% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 72% │ -3.0 │ -2.50 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +1.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - FF-FG coalition continuity after the Nov 2024 election; an orderly Oct 2025 presidential election; peaceful, predictable governance. (RTE, Irish Times)

Civil Liberties - Strong common-law protections; robust expression and assembly. (WJP, Amnesty)

Treatment Non Citizens - A standout lawful, durable, English-speaking route via citizenship by descent (an Ireland-born grandparent on the Foreign Births Register confers full citizenship); general immigration is harder (Critical Skills permit, Stamp 0). (Department of Foreign Affairs; Citizens Information)

Social Cohesion - A 2023 Dublin riot, 2025 anti-asylum-centre unrest, and 2026 protests with far-right involvement; but surveys find the far-right view is not the majority and attitudes trend inclusive. (RTE; Al Jazeera)

Demographics - Younger than EU peers (median ~39) and still growing; the acute housing shortage is the structural drag. (Eurostat, CSO)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.36 │ 79% │

│ mid │ +3.18 │ 79% │

│ long │ +3.0 │ 79% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A committed EU member but militarily neutral with thin defence capacity. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 78% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 75% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A committed EU member (holding the EU Council presidency in H2 2026) but militarily neutral and non-NATO, with thin defence capacity off a very low base. (European Commission; Budget 2026)

Conflict Involvement - No direct conflict, but tail exposure via undersea cables (much transatlantic data passes near Irish waters) and Russian activity, with very limited naval patrol capacity. (Atlantic Council)

Sanctions Capital Controls - EU sanctions regime; free capital mobility, no domestic controls. (EU)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.98 │ 77% │

│ mid │ +0.98 │ 77% │

│ long │ +0.98 │ 77% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A mild climate and low violent crime, against an acute housing/health/infrastructure strain. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +1.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -1.0 │ -0.50 │ 0.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -2.50 │ -2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 78% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Mild maritime, high readiness, low heat exposure - but the most AMOC-exposed state; a slowdown could sharply cool/destabilize NW Europe (flag the tail). (ND-GAIN; IPCC AMOC)

Healthcare - The HSE is universal-ish but two-tier and costly, with record waiting lists breaching reform targets. (HSE; IHCA)

Infrastructure - The housing crisis is the dominant negative (completions rising but far below need); the grid is strained by data-centre demand. (CSO, ESRI, CRU)

Crime Safety - Low violent crime and homicide. (CSO)

Disaster Insurance - A material flood-cover gap (~1 in 20 buildings with limited or no flood insurance), projected to widen. (Central Bank of Ireland)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.27 │ 73% │

│ mid │ -0.10 │ 73% │

│ long │ +0.06 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +3.32 │ 78% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +2.89 │ 78% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +3.04 │ 79% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +3.43 │ +3.37 │ +3.32 │

│ Assets │ +2.95 │ +2.89 │ +2.82 │

│ Currency │ +3.04 │ +2.93 │ +2.83 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘