- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV, OECD, WJP, RSF, TI, GPI, Freedom House) + Icelandic official (Statistics Iceland, Central Bank, Met Office) + Icelandic press.

- A tiny, wealthy, exceptionally stable and safe democracy; the dominant tail is volcanic/seismic (the ongoing Reykjanes eruptions).

- Standout features: top-tier institutions, world-leading safety, ~100% renewable energy, against a small/volatile currency, tourism concentration, and a seismic tail. Source-lean: MODERATE Anglophone on index framing.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

Prudent fiscals and sound rebuilt banks, with a small/volatile krona and tourism concentration the caveats. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.50 │ +5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 78% │ +1.0 │ +2.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 78% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.50 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - The deficit fell sharply with a surplus targeted, under a net-debt ceiling - prudent. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Monetary Independence - A credible central bank with full policy control, but a tiny/volatile krona with a capital-control history. (CBI; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The krona has no reserve status. (IMF)

Inflation - Sticky/rising in early 2026 (a rate hike to ~7.75%), with the IMF seeing a return toward target. (Statistics Iceland; CBI)

Banking Stability - Rebuilt and well-capitalised since 2008, with housing/indexed-mortgage watch-items. (IMF FSAP)

Trade Actions Capacity - Tourism, fish, and aluminium on cheap geothermal/hydro energy - concentrated and tourism-cyclical, no resource curse. (OECD)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.46 │ 81% │

│ mid │ +2.78 │ 81% │

│ long │ +3.10 │ 81% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Top-tier institutions, with small-market media concentration the lone caveat. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 88% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 83% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 82% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Top-tier, with strong judicial independence. (WJP 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Statistics Iceland is independent and uncompromised. (WJP)

Civil Service Capacity - Professional and low-corruption (a high CPI). (TI CPI 2025)

Press Freedom - Free (RSF ~12th), with fishing-firm media-ownership concentration in a small market. (RSF 2026)

Civil-Military Relations - No standing armed forces. The factor reduces here to the politicization of the police or gendarmerie. It is scored positive by default. Confidence is held low, as the usual evidence base does not apply.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +6.97 │ 78% │

│ mid │ +6.97 │ 78% │

│ long │ +6.97 │ 78% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A very stable, high-trust democracy with strong liberties and relatively favourable demographics. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 82% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 78% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 78% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +1.50 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A stable democracy with an orderly 2024 handover. (IPU; RUV)

Civil Liberties - Among the world's strongest protections. (Freedom House; WJP)

Treatment Non Citizens - ~18% foreign-born and labour-importing, EEA-open, with a 2024 work-permit liberalisation. (OECD)

Social Cohesion - Very high trust and egalitarian - a genuine strength. (OECD)

Demographics - Relatively healthy fertility (~1.6-1.7) plus immigration-driven growth - favourable versus peers. (Statistics Iceland)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.09 │ 81% │

│ mid │ +5.04 │ 81% │

│ long │ +4.99 │ 81% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A geographically insulated NATO founder, the world's most peaceful country, with an open account. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 82% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 82% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A NATO founder (no standing army) with a long US defence pact and Nordic alignment. (NATO)

Conflict Involvement - Ranked the world's most peaceful, with no conflict and geographic insulation. (GPI 2025)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open capital account (post-2017 control removal), EEA-aligned. (State Dept ICS)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.86 │ 83% │

│ mid │ +5.86 │ 83% │

│ long │ +5.86 │ 83% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Excellent healthcare, infrastructure, and safety, against a volcanic/seismic tail. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +4.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 78% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 80% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 72% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - A sub-Arctic beneficiary near-term (milder climate, geothermal-rich, very high readiness), but ocean-acidification/fisheries shifts and the AMOC tail erode the gain long-term. (ND-GAIN; IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - Universal, with excellent outcomes. (OECD)

Infrastructure - Excellent, on ~100% renewable electricity. (OECD; gov.is)

Crime Safety - The world's safest, with violent crime extraordinarily rare. (GPI 2025)

Disaster Insurance - A state natural-catastrophe fund covers all buildings, stress-tested by the Grindavik eruptions. (NTI)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.52 │ 76% │

│ mid │ +5.34 │ 76% │

│ long │ +5.16 │ 76% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +5.46 │ 79% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +4.76 │ 80% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +4.0 │ 81% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +5.44 │ +5.45 │ +5.46 │

│ Assets │ +4.66 │ +4.76 │ +4.87 │

│ Currency │ +4.0 │ +4.19 │ +4.37 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘