- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-25): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-14 -> 08-25 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central; WebSearch budget exhausted mid-pass, central verification via self-hosted SearXNG + targeted fetches), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war entered an economic-strangulation phase even as exit diplomacy advanced. The US launched the global secondary-sanctions campaign 'Operation Economic Outcast' (Aug 24, 60+ designations, all-sector scope); Iran's crude exports effectively halted (Kharg Island berths empty since July 31, satellite-verified; China-bound imports ~823k -> ~534k bpd); the rial crossed 2 million per dollar; Iran fired its first ballistic missiles toward the UAE (Aug 18) and the UAE, Iran's second-largest trade partner, cut ALL trade indefinitely (Aug 19). Yet no US strike on Iranian soil was confirmed in-window and Iran-Oman Hormuz-corridor talks reached joint-statement drafting in Tehran (Aug 25). A global long-bond rout (Aug 18) set multi-decade records (UK 50Y 5.392%; JGB 10Y highest since 1996); the US Treasury doubled long-end buybacks (Aug 19), the Fed-independence fight reopened (Cook removal deadline Aug 26), and DXY hit a 3-month low with gold at a 3-month high. US-Canada trade talks collapsed (Aug 21), first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect (Aug 22), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation (eff. Sept 8). Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Russia's Black Sea grain export capacity offline and Russian inflation crossed 10%. DRC Ebola deaths reached 2,642 (PHEIC reaffirmed) while Geneva produced an M23 peace-talks roadmap. Pakistan's KP floods killed 368 in five days and Islamabad defied a Supreme Court order on Imran Khan. Venezuela freed 131 political prisoners. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the Sept-2025 Libya 'Sorman/Zawiya clashes' recirculation, Ghana's pre-window IMF completion run as fresh, Cuba's pre-window Aug 2-3 blackout, and a third clean Thailand-Cambodia verification (ceasefire holds, ASEAN observers verifying). CORRECTION: Serbia's June 27-30 Vucic resignation-pledge arc, missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since 05-28, is booked late as a note. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-20): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-14 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran war DEEPENED rather than broke pattern - the US naval blockade of Iranian ports held all window, OFAC's wind-down GL X1 EXPIRED July 17 (full Iran oil sanctions restored), the US combat death toll rose to 17 (430+ wounded) after Iran hit Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti air base July 17, and the US ran a ninth consecutive night of strikes (incl. the Darkhovin nuclear-plant site, IAEA reviewing). Iran's retaliation crossed a threshold: it struck Kuwait's power + desalination plant twice (first civilian-infrastructure targeting) and Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields (-140-150k bpd), and on July 20 the Houthis opened a new front with a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia (ending the 2022 truce). Brent ran to ~$88-90; Hormuz war-risk hull premiums held at 3-10% of value. Secondary: the EU FROZE the $44.10 Russia oil cap for one week to July 23 (the prior pass's lapse risk did NOT materialize - held, not scored as relief) with the 21st sanctions package still stalled (a narrow Kyiv-strike mini-package adopted July 17 instead); Russia's MOEX hit a 17-week losing streak (worst since 1997), the deficit overshot plan by ~1T rubles and the ruble slid ~8%/mo to ~78.6; Ukraine's Kerch Strait / Don-Azov shipping halt PERSISTED with no reopening as Russia hit Kyiv with a 41-missile barrage July 19; the Poland-Ukraine White Eagle rift DE-ESCALATED (Zelensky opened SBU archives July 17, Tusk welcomed it); Andy Burnham became UK PM July 20 (7th in a decade but a clean handover, dropped digital ID); Israel's Knesset dissolved on schedule July 17 (Oct 27 elections) after a judicial-oversight/media legislative blitz; China's Q2 GDP printed 4.3% (weakest since 2022); India's rupee broke past its defense band to ~96.4; deadly monsoon flooding hit Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal; Nicaragua's Ortega declared no more elections; Cuba logged its 5th total grid collapse of 2026; Venezuela's quake toll passed 5,200; DRC's Ebola became the fastest-growing month-on-month; Mali's JNIM/FLA reversed the Anefis gain; Morocco released journalist Ali Lmrabet; a M7.4 quake struck the Mexico-Guatemala border. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-07): news pull since the 2026-06-18 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire proved repeatedly reversible (remote MoU June 17 + 60-day Burgenstock roadmap June 21, then a Kiku-tanker strike -> US strikes on 5 Iranian sites -> Iranian retaliation on US bases in Kuwait/Bahrain June 27-28 -> fresh Saudi/Qatari tanker strikes July 7 -> Trump 'finish the job'), even as verified relief landed (OFAC General License X, a 60-day Iranian-oil-export waiver ~$8-9B) and Hormuz volumes recovered to ~90% of pre-war baseline. Iran's $24B/$12B frozen-asset claim stays Mehr/parliamentary-sourced and US-denied -> excluded. Secondary: Russia's refinery/fuel crisis + deficit blowout (160% of the annual target, exile-press sourced); Ukraine's EU-accession progress + NATO 140bn-euro pledge vs the deadliest Kyiv strikes of the year; Venezuela's twin quake + constitutional-legality shock; certified-but-contested elections in Peru (Fujimori) and Colombia (de la Espriella); Bolivia's blockade crisis easing under a state of emergency; US inflation topping 4% and SCOTUS striking the birthright-citizenship order while domestic-terrorism sentences and ICE-detention deaths mount; China's rare-earth coercion + HK Article 23 expansion; India's near-final US trade deal vs a press-freedom slide; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk watch. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-18): news pull since the 2026-06-15 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; the US-Iran deal's $24B frozen-asset release / upfront tranche remains Iranian-state-media-sourced (Mehr) and US-rejected, treated as unverified regime framing - only the framework MoU + its June 19 Buergenstock signing are independently confirmed). Dominant mover: the US-Iran framework hardened toward its June 19 signing in Switzerland (MoU signed electronically by both sides June 17) but stays a non-final 60-day framework with terms disputed (US 'pay-for-performance'), the Strait of Hormuz still physically near-shut (~7 ships transited vs 550+ stranded; ~4-6 month export recovery), and Israeli ops in Lebanon continuing - so scores firm modestly along the resolution path without fully reversing. Secondary: a hawkish first FOMC under Chair Warsh, Ukraine's Fundamentals accession cluster opening (Luxembourg IGC June 15) + the G7 Evian summit, an HRW report on the US Minnesota deployment, Hungary's PM-term-limit amendment, Japan's BOJ hike to 1.0%, a terror attack on Niamey's airport, and Equatorial Guinea's full-cabinet resignation. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-15): news pull since the 2026-06-08 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; the US-Iran deal's detailed 14-point terms are Iranian-state-media-sourced and US-disputed, treated as unverified regime framing - only the framework agreement + scheduled June 19 signing are independently confirmed). Dominant mover: the US-Iran war swung from peak escalation (US strikes inside Iran, total Hormuz closure) to a framework peace deal announced June 14 with Brent falling ~$15-20 to ~$83; the strait remains physically shut pending implementation, so scores improve on the resolution path without fully reversing. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-08): news pull since the 2026-06-03 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; Iran's strait-closure claims via state media treated as regime intent, not verified action). Dominant movers: the June 4-5 AI-equity selloff (Broadcom's weak AI guidance, Nasdaq's worst day since April 2025) and renewed active US-Iran strikes around the Strait of Hormuz. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-03): news pull since the 2026-05-28 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; Iran's Hormuz-closure claims sourced to Tasnim are treated as regime intent, not verified action). A few late-May items not captured in the prior pass are flagged in-note. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV 2026, OECD, RSF, V-Dem, Freedom House) + Israeli official (CBS, Bank of Israel) + Israeli independent press (Haaretz, Times of Israel, Calcalist) + international, scored on observable actions/data.

- Contested subject: anti- and pro-Israel framing were balanced by anchoring on IMF/Bank of Israel/CBS and the combative domestic press; conflict was credited for 2026 ceasefires rather than scored at active-war extremes.

- Standout features: a world-class tech economy and a young, growing population, against institutional erosion (the judicial-overhaul crisis), high-variance multi-front conflict, and growing international isolation.

- Recalibrated 2026-05-29 for the 2026 Iran war (Operation Epic Fury, US+Israel vs Iran from 28 Feb) and the Strait of Hormuz closure: blockade of ~1/5 of world oil+LNG, attacks/threats on Gulf desalination (water security), and the global energy shock. The two-week 8 Apr ceasefire collapsed by late May - the US renewed strikes on Iran ~25-26 May (Trump convened Camp David) and the war resumed, with Hormuz still blockaded. (Reuters; BBC; NYT; CNN; ISW; Al Jazeera; CSIS; Wikipedia)

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A world-class tech-export base, a credible central bank, and sound banks, against war-widened deficits. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -3.0 │ -2.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 86% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +2.50 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +3.50 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Deficit consolidating (6.8% in 2024 toward ~4.7% in 2025), debt rising from a low base toward ~69%, with 2024 rating downgrades. (IMF 2026 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - Held at +6, confidence 0.85 -> 0.86: the Bank of Israel cut its policy rate 25bp to 3.25% on Sept 1, a third consecutive cut and the lowest since 2022, citing shekel appreciation pressure on exporters and inflation running below the target midpoint (Bloomberg). A central bank easing on stated disinflation grounds during a war is independence functioning, and the decision is well corroborated outside Israeli outlets.

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The shekel is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - ~1.9% and within the 1-3% band for months, with a war supply-blip managed. (Bank of Israel)

Banking Stability - High capital ratios, low arrears, record bank profits, and sound supervision. (Bank of Israel)

Trade Actions Capacity - A world-class high-tech export base (the majority of exports, with record 2025 tech deals), against a reservist-mobilisation drag and boycott/isolation pressure; Leviathan gas, no resource curse. (Innovation Authority; Calcalist)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.89 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +2.29 │ 74% │

│ long │ +2.68 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Credible statistics and high state capacity, against an eroding rule-of-law trajectory and wartime press restrictions. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -1.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Settler-violence impunity is now quantified by the state's own data: police files on settler crimes against Palestinians rose 560% since 2019 (139 -> 779 cases) with only 6.6% ending in indictment, at least 20 settler attacks were reported across the West Bank over the July 11 weekend (including assaults on foreign reporters), and UN experts count 13+ Palestinians killed and ~500 injured by settler violence in 2026 to date (UN experts - multilateral/independent; Israeli police data via Haaretz - state data unfavorable to the state, tilt-flagged outlet). The government's declared non-compliance with a Supreme Court ruling (July 5, pre-window) is reported only by Israeli tilt outlets and is noted as direction, not scored alone. Near 1 -> 0; long held 0; confidence held.

Statistical Integrity - The CBS is credible, with IMF/OECD reliance. (IMF Art IV; CBS)

Civil Service Capacity - High professional capacity, under politicisation pressure on appointments. (IDI; OECD)

Press Freedom - RSF ~112-116/180: an Al Jazeera ban, a foreign-press Gaza blackout, and wartime censorship, against a still-pluralist and combative domestic press. (RSF; CNN)

Civil-Military Relations - Formal civilian control is intact. The civil-military relationship is under sustained strain. The 2023 judicial overhaul produced mass reservist refusal to report, an unprecedented politicization of service itself. The October 7 command failures, the resulting resignations at the top of the general staff, and open friction between the government and the general staff over war conduct have kept the senior command in political contest through an active war. The conscription exemption dispute adds a structural fault line to the same relationship.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.90 │ 71% │

│ mid │ +1.97 │ 71% │

│ long │ +2.03 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A young, growing population, against deep polarisation, war trauma, and a divided society - near-term volatile with a settling upside. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -2.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -1.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -3.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - HELD near -4: Likud submitted its Knesset slate at the last minute amid internal candidate-list disputes (Sept 6), confirming the election cycle is live, and US envoy Kushner publicly said the coming vote is making the government act irrationally on Gaza. An election being contested normally is not itself a stability move, so this is recorded rather than scored.

Civil Liberties - Strong for Jewish citizens, with wartime erosion and differential treatment of Arab citizens and Palestinians. (V-Dem/Freedom House; Haaretz)

Treatment Non Citizens - The Law of Return gives Jewish immigrants near-automatic citizenship - uniquely open for that group - while remaining restrictive and hostile to non-Jewish migrants and asylum-seekers. (statute)

Social Cohesion - Deep secular/religious and Jewish-Arab cleavages compounded by war trauma. (IDI; Haaretz)

Demographics - High fertility (~2.8-3.0) and a young, growing population, with a Haredi labour-participation drag. (CBS; Taub Center)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.96 │ 68% │

│ mid │ -1.22 │ 68% │

│ long │ -0.48 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A deep US alliance and post-peak conflict with normalisation upside, against high relapse risk and growing isolation - high variance. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 82% │ -9.0 │ -6.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -1.50 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Worsened -1 -> -2: on Sept 7 eight states issued a joint statement condemning Israeli ministers Katz and Ben-Gvir over stated plans to remove Palestinians from Gaza, with Ben-Gvir putting numbers on it at 250,000 in year one and roughly 2 million over six years. The signatories include the UAE, an Abraham Accords partner, alongside Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Indonesia and Pakistan. A joint condemnation naming sitting ministers and including a normalization partner is a measurable alliance cost rather than routine criticism. Confidence 0.65 -> 0.7 on multi-chain reporting.

Conflict Involvement - Worsened near -8 -> -9: Netanyahu, at an IDF position near Gaza's Yellow Line on Sept 3, rejected the US-backed ceasefire and said Israel will maintain its military presence, while Defense Minister Katz said Israel has plans to remove Palestinians from Gaza pending US approval (NPR, independently sourced rather than via Israeli outlets, which carry tilt on this subject). Rejecting a sponsor's own ceasefire while announcing population-transfer planning is an escalation of stated intent, not merely of tempo. Long held -4.

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open capital account, with external ICJ/ICC and boycott/embargo pressure rather than domestic controls. (ICJ; Times of Israel)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.56 │ 72% │

│ mid │ -3.52 │ 72% │

│ long │ -2.49 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Tech-managed water and strong healthcare and infrastructure, against a security duality and war/rocket exposure. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -2.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.50 │ +3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +2.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - High readiness (desal, water tech) buffers Eastern-Med warming, drought, and heatwaves, with persistent coastal/aridification pressure. (IPCC AR6; ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Universal coverage and strong outcomes, war-strained. (OECD; CBS)

Infrastructure - Advanced, with near-term rocket/missile exposure and war damage. (INSS)

Crime Safety - Low general street crime, but a record Arab-sector homicide surge (with very low clearance) and rocket risk. (Times of Israel; Haaretz)

Disaster Insurance - A state Property Tax Compensation Fund covers war damage, against Dead Sea Transform seismic risk. (state scheme; USGS)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.07 │ 69% │

│ mid │ +0.16 │ 69% │

│ long │ +0.39 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.93 │ 70% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.80 │ 72% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +0.76 │ 73% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +0.16 │ +0.55 │ +0.93 │

│ Assets │ +0.37 │ +0.80 │ +1.23 │

│ Currency │ +0.76 │ +1.20 │ +1.65 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘