- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: triangulated across multilateral bodies (IMF 2026 Article IV/FSAP, EEA, RSF, Eurostat, World Justice Project) + Italian official stats (ISTAT, Banca d'Italia) + Italian press.

- Severe demographic ageing (fertility ~1.14) and a high public-debt load are the standout long-term drags.

- Source-lean: moderate Anglophone routing on some political color; ISTAT/Il Sole 24 Ore originals partially offset; Corriere/Repubblica not read directly this pass.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A top-tier manufacturer with a large trade surplus and much-improved banks within the eurozone; a very high public-debt load the structural drag. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -2.0 │ -1.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt ~137% GDP; deficit ~3% and falling with a restored primary surplus and a compressed BTP-Bund spread, but debt declines only slowly. (IMF 2026 Art IV; ISTAT)

Monetary Independence - Eurozone - the ECB sets policy and is credible and independent; no national monetary control. (ECB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Eurozone member; the euro is the #2 global reserve currency, a modest shared benefit. (IMF COFER)

Inflation - Near target through 2025 but reaccelerated to ~2.7-2.9% (Apr 2026) on energy. (Eurostat, ISTAT)

Banking Stability - Record profits, gross NPLs ~2.8% at record lows, CET1 ~14%; the IMF 2026 FSAP judges the system resilient; major consolidation underway. (IMF FSAP; Banca d'Italia)

Trade Actions Capacity - A top-tier manufacturer with a large trade surplus (machinery, pharma, food, luxury) and record tourism; stable policy; no resource curse. (Confindustria, ISTAT)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.89 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +3.0 │ 75% │

│ long │ +3.11 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Credible courts and uncompromised statistics, against slow civil justice and eroding press freedom. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ 0.0 │ +0.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Slow civil justice is improving under PNRR reforms; a Meloni judicial career-separation reform was rejected in a March 2026 referendum, preserving judicial independence. (EU Rule of Law Report; ISTAT)

Statistical Integrity - ISTAT and the Banca d'Italia are credible, independent, and Eurostat-compliant. (ISTAT, Eurostat)

Civil Service Capacity - Functional but uneven, with a north-south capacity gap and bureaucratic friction; PNRR delivery shows real but strained absorption capacity. (OECD)

Press Freedom - RSF #49 (2025), downgraded to 'problematic': RAI politicization, criminal defamation, and SLAPPs. (RSF)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, backed by tested parliamentary oversight and a long unbroken record of apolitical command.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.16 │ 72% │

│ mid │ +2.32 │ 72% │

│ long │ +2.48 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An unusually durable government, against among the world's most severe demographic ageing and a narrowed ancestry-citizenship route. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 80% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 95% │ -4.0 │ -5.50 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Improved +5 -> +6: the Meloni government became Italy's longest continuously serving since the Second World War (Reuters analysis Aug 31, AP feature Sept 3). Booked as one step and no more because Reuters' own analysis cautions the record may prove fleeting, and because Deputy PM Salvini is simultaneously demanding at least EUR 20 billion in extra deficit spending for the 2027 budget while asserting Italy does not need Brussels' approval, which is coalition strain running against the stability the record measures.

Civil Liberties - Broadly strong rights and free elections; pressures via media interference and security/migration legislation. (RSF)

Treatment Non Citizens - Lawful elective-residence (passive income) and 2024 digital-nomad visas are open and durable, but the citizenship-by-ancestry (jure sanguinis) route was sharply tightened in 2025 (a generational cap and 'genuine link' test), narrowing a major pathway. (IBA; Italian law DL 36/2025)

Social Cohesion - Generally cohesive but with a persistent north-south divide, migration politics, and youth emigration. (ISTAT)

Demographics - Among the world's oldest populations: fertility ~1.14 (record low), median age ~47, deaths far exceeding births; only net migration keeps the population stable. (ISTAT 2025)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.69 │ 72% │

│ mid │ +2.53 │ 72% │

│ long │ +2.38 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A reliable NATO/EU/G7 anchor with low direct-conflict exposure. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - NATO, EU-founder, and G7; firmly transatlantic and pro-EU; reached the 2% NATO target. (IAI)

Conflict Involvement - No direct conflict; staunch Ukraine support; Mediterranean/migration exposure. (Kyiv Post)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Aligned with the EU/G7 sanctions regime; free capital movement, no controls. (EU)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.35 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +5.35 │ 75% │

│ long │ +5.35 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Very low crime, against a fast-warming Mediterranean climate and a strained health service. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 75% │ 0.0 │ -0.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Mediterranean heat/drought (Po basin), wildfire, alpine glacier loss, and sea-level (Venice); high-readiness north, exposed south. (EEA; IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - A universal SSN with strong outcomes (life expectancy ~83.7) but its worst structural funding crisis in decades, with waiting lists and a north-south gap. (GIMBE 2025)

Infrastructure - Strong in the north; PNRR is investing in weaker southern rail (a new Sicily line opened 2025); execution risk on EU deadlines. (Railway Gazette)

Crime Safety - Very low violent crime (homicide ~0.5/100k); regional organized crime persists but is increasingly white-collar. (ISTAT; Europol)

Disaster Insurance - High seismic and flood exposure, but a new 2024-2025 mandatory business catastrophe-insurance regime with public reinsurance improves resilience; household coverage still thin. (Norton Rose Fulbright)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.68 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +0.33 │ 74% │

│ long │ -0.03 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +2.31 │ 73% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +2.88 │ 74% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +3.11 │ 74% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +2.37 │ +2.34 │ +2.31 │

│ Assets │ +2.85 │ +2.88 │ +2.91 │

│ Currency │ +3.11 │ +3.20 │ +3.29 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘