- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank/IDB, Bank of Jamaica, Freedom House, RSF, InSight Crime) + international and Jamaican press.

- The Caribbean's standout fiscal-discipline success (debt cut from ~150% to ~65% of GDP, a credible inflation-targeting central bank) - but Hurricane Melissa (Cat 5, Oct 2025) was the costliest disaster in its history (~US$8.8bn, ~41% of 2024 GDP).

- Standout features: institutional/fiscal strength and a homicide rate roughly halved in 2025, against a structural, recurring catastrophic-hurricane tail and still-high (if falling) violent crime.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A fiscal-discipline graduate with a credible central bank, Melissa a near-term pause not a reversal. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +3.50 │ +5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ +0.50 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 78% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ 0.0 │ +1.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt fell toward ~65% of GDP (lowest in 25y), targeting the 60% FRL ceiling by FY27/28; Melissa reconstruction (US$6.7bn financing secured) pauses but does not reverse the trajectory. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - The BOJ is a credible, independent inflation-targeter (4-6% band) - a genuine regional standout. (Bank of Jamaica)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The JMD is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Converged into the 4-6% band in 2025, but Melissa is projected to push inflation to ~11.5% in mid-2026 before re-converging. (BOJ QMPR)

Banking Stability - Resilient in 2025 stress tests - low NPLs, strong capital/liquidity, reserves at a record ~US$6.1bn. (BOJ Financial Stability Report)

Trade Actions Capacity - Tourism, remittances, and bauxite/alumina drive a current-account surplus; Melissa hit ~40-50% of hotels, denting near-term tourism. (IMF; World Bank/IDB)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.37 │ 84% │

│ mid │ +2.17 │ 84% │

│ long │ +2.97 │ 84% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Functioning courts and credible data, with persistent corruption and a slipping (still strong) press. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Functioning courts and peaceful transfers, but corruption is persistent and official-organized-crime ties are flagged. (Freedom House 2025)

Statistical Integrity - STATIN, BOJ, and PIOJ produce credible, IMF-cited data with transparent post-disaster assessments. (IMF; World Bank)

Civil Service Capacity - Competent macro-fiscal and central-bank administration; the disaster-management apparatus is functional though stretched by Melissa. (IMF; UN)

Press Freedom - Among the freest in the Americas but sliding - RSF fell to ~26th (2025) from 6th in 2020. (RSF 2025; PAJ)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.83 │ 73% │

│ mid │ +2.83 │ 73% │

│ long │ +2.83 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable two-party democracy with falling homicides, against deep garrison-community divides. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -1.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ 0.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - The JLP (Holness) won a historic third consecutive term in Sept 2025 - peaceful, with no significant violence (low turnout ~39.5%). (ECJ; JIS)

Civil Liberties - Rated 'Free', though states of emergency raise civil-liberties/detention concerns. (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - No major xenophobia issue; standard-to-friendly treatment of tourists/expats. (observed)

Social Cohesion - Deep class/garrison-community divides and gang structures underpin violence, but a strong national identity and falling homicides point to gradual gains. (InSight Crime)

Demographics - Record-low unemployment (~3.7%) but persistent skilled-emigration/brain drain and ageing weigh long-term. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.20 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +2.26 │ 75% │

│ long │ +2.31 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable, US/UK-aligned, conflict-free, unsanctioned democracy. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 90% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A stable US/UK-aligned democracy and active CARICOM member with no adversarial alignments. (Freedom House)

Conflict Involvement - No external conflict; not party to the regional Venezuela disputes. (observed)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open economy with no sanctions or capital controls and a floating JMD. (IMF AREAER)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.75 │ 84% │

│ mid │ +4.75 │ 84% │

│ long │ +4.75 │ 84% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

The dominant national risk - extreme and rising hurricane exposure, with high crime. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -1.50 │ 0.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 85% │ -2.0 │ -1.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -3.50 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - 2025 Hurricane Melissa (Cat 5, ~41% of GDP) is the anchor - high SIDS exposure plus sea-level rise. (IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - A universal public system, functional but under-resourced and badly damaged by Melissa, with a private tier. (UN; World Bank)

Infrastructure - Decent pre-storm but Melissa devastated energy/transport/telecoms/schools; a US$6.7bn reconstruction is underway. (World Bank/IDB)

Crime Safety - A corroborated, sustained security improvement: 291 murders YTD through July 11 (-22% y/y, 83 fewer), shootings -27%, robberies -25%, and the murder clearance rate up 20% with 304 cases cleared (Jamaica Gleaner - independent, cross-checking JCF figures; police self-report corroborated by the Gleaner's own tally). Improved near -3 -> -2, long -2 -> -1; confidence up.

Disaster Insurance - Melissa insured losses possibly >US$4bn; a disaster-risk-financing pioneer (CCRIF, cat bond) but with a large protection gap. (IDB)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.82 │ 77% │

│ mid │ -2.60 │ 77% │

│ long │ -2.37 │ 77% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +2.02 │ 76% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +2.28 │ 79% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +2.20 │ 81% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +1.65 │ +1.84 │ +2.02 │

│ Assets │ +1.91 │ +2.28 │ +2.64 │

│ Currency │ +2.20 │ +2.69 │ +3.19 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘