- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-25): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-14 -> 08-25 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central; WebSearch budget exhausted mid-pass, central verification via self-hosted SearXNG + targeted fetches), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war entered an economic-strangulation phase even as exit diplomacy advanced. The US launched the global secondary-sanctions campaign 'Operation Economic Outcast' (Aug 24, 60+ designations, all-sector scope); Iran's crude exports effectively halted (Kharg Island berths empty since July 31, satellite-verified; China-bound imports ~823k -> ~534k bpd); the rial crossed 2 million per dollar; Iran fired its first ballistic missiles toward the UAE (Aug 18) and the UAE, Iran's second-largest trade partner, cut ALL trade indefinitely (Aug 19). Yet no US strike on Iranian soil was confirmed in-window and Iran-Oman Hormuz-corridor talks reached joint-statement drafting in Tehran (Aug 25). A global long-bond rout (Aug 18) set multi-decade records (UK 50Y 5.392%; JGB 10Y highest since 1996); the US Treasury doubled long-end buybacks (Aug 19), the Fed-independence fight reopened (Cook removal deadline Aug 26), and DXY hit a 3-month low with gold at a 3-month high. US-Canada trade talks collapsed (Aug 21), first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect (Aug 22), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation (eff. Sept 8). Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Russia's Black Sea grain export capacity offline and Russian inflation crossed 10%. DRC Ebola deaths reached 2,642 (PHEIC reaffirmed) while Geneva produced an M23 peace-talks roadmap. Pakistan's KP floods killed 368 in five days and Islamabad defied a Supreme Court order on Imran Khan. Venezuela freed 131 political prisoners. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the Sept-2025 Libya 'Sorman/Zawiya clashes' recirculation, Ghana's pre-window IMF completion run as fresh, Cuba's pre-window Aug 2-3 blackout, and a third clean Thailand-Cambodia verification (ceasefire holds, ASEAN observers verifying). CORRECTION: Serbia's June 27-30 Vucic resignation-pledge arc, missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since 05-28, is booked late as a note. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-07): news pull since the 2026-06-18 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire proved repeatedly reversible (remote MoU June 17 + 60-day Burgenstock roadmap June 21, then a Kiku-tanker strike -> US strikes on 5 Iranian sites -> Iranian retaliation on US bases in Kuwait/Bahrain June 27-28 -> fresh Saudi/Qatari tanker strikes July 7 -> Trump 'finish the job'), even as verified relief landed (OFAC General License X, a 60-day Iranian-oil-export waiver ~$8-9B) and Hormuz volumes recovered to ~90% of pre-war baseline. Iran's $24B/$12B frozen-asset claim stays Mehr/parliamentary-sourced and US-denied -> excluded. Secondary: Russia's refinery/fuel crisis + deficit blowout (160% of the annual target, exile-press sourced); Ukraine's EU-accession progress + NATO 140bn-euro pledge vs the deadliest Kyiv strikes of the year; Venezuela's twin quake + constitutional-legality shock; certified-but-contested elections in Peru (Fujimori) and Colombia (de la Espriella); Bolivia's blockade crisis easing under a state of emergency; US inflation topping 4% and SCOTUS striking the birthright-citizenship order while domestic-terrorism sentences and ICE-detention deaths mount; China's rare-earth coercion + HK Article 23 expansion; India's near-final US trade deal vs a press-freedom slide; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk watch. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-18): news pull since the 2026-06-15 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; the US-Iran deal's $24B frozen-asset release / upfront tranche remains Iranian-state-media-sourced (Mehr) and US-rejected, treated as unverified regime framing - only the framework MoU + its June 19 Buergenstock signing are independently confirmed). Dominant mover: the US-Iran framework hardened toward its June 19 signing in Switzerland (MoU signed electronically by both sides June 17) but stays a non-final 60-day framework with terms disputed (US 'pay-for-performance'), the Strait of Hormuz still physically near-shut (~7 ships transited vs 550+ stranded; ~4-6 month export recovery), and Israeli ops in Lebanon continuing - so scores firm modestly along the resolution path without fully reversing. Secondary: a hawkish first FOMC under Chair Warsh, Ukraine's Fundamentals accession cluster opening (Luxembourg IGC June 15) + the G7 Evian summit, an HRW report on the US Minnesota deployment, Hungary's PM-term-limit amendment, Japan's BOJ hike to 1.0%, a terror attack on Niamey's airport, and Equatorial Guinea's full-cabinet resignation. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-03): news pull since the 2026-05-28 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; Iran's Hormuz-closure claims sourced to Tasnim are treated as regime intent, not verified action). A few late-May items not captured in the prior pass are flagged in-note. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Article IV, OECD, WJP, RSF) + Japanese official (Statistics Bureau, Bank of Japan, IPSS, NPA) + Japanese press (Nikkei, Japan Times).

- NEGATIVE-SKEW case: among the world's worst demographics (locked-in population decline) plus the highest major-economy debt - both worsen with horizon.

- Source-lean: moderate Anglophone on political color and the China crisis; economic/demographic/seismic numbers come from Japanese/multilateral primaries.

- Recalibrated 2026-05-29 for the 2026 Iran war (Operation Epic Fury, US+Israel vs Iran from 28 Feb) and the Strait of Hormuz closure: blockade of ~1/5 of world oil+LNG, attacks/threats on Gulf desalination (water security), and the global energy shock. The two-week 8 Apr ceasefire collapsed by late May - the US renewed strikes on Iran ~25-26 May (Trump convened Camp David) and the war resumed, with Hormuz still blockaded. (Reuters; BBC; NYT; CNN; ISW; Al Jazeera; CSIS; Wikipedia)

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A credible central bank, a safe-haven reserve currency, and an export-tech base, against the highest major-economy debt and a debt-service cost that worsens as rates normalize. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 86% │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 88% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +3.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 72% │ -3.0 │ -2.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 74% │ +1.0 │ +2.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Worsened near +1 -> -2: the benchmark 10-year JGB yield crossed 3% on Sept 1 for the first time in 30 years and the 30-year hit a record 4.18%, with the yen at 160 and the US Treasury Secretary publicly suggesting Tokyo may intervene to support it (Reuters, Mainichi; the 4.18% print is carried by a weaker outlet and is consistent with the Reuters 10-year story). For the most indebted advanced economy, a structural break in the cost of long money is a fiscal event, not a market one. Long held -4.

Monetary Independence - Improved 3 -> 4: 7-2 BOJ vote for a preemptive hike despite two dissents signaling internal resistance (Reuters, Sept 18). The bank is moving against imported inflation rather than accommodating it. Confidence 0.85 -> 0.88.

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The yen is a major reserve currency (~6% of reserves) and a traditional safe haven; debt and demographics erode the long horizon. (IMF COFER)

Inflation - Worsened -1 -> -2: the BOJ raised to 1.25% on Sept 18, a 31-year high, citing oil prices and yen weakness (Reuters, UPI). Import-driven inflation pressure from the Hormuz shock is the channel. Confidence 0.7 -> 0.72.

Banking Stability - The IMF judges the system broadly resilient; the watch-item is rising JGB unrealized losses as rates climb. (IMF FSAP; BoJ FSR)

Trade Actions Capacity - China's rare-earth/critical-mineral choke (since PM Takaichi's Nov-2025 Taiwan remarks) is now showing up in corporate filings as a broad hit to Japan's industrial base, with Tokyo racing for alternative supply (Japan Times, AP - independent/wire). Near 2 -> 1; long held 3; confidence held.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.18 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +1.09 │ 74% │

│ long │ +1.51 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong courts, credible statistics, and high state capacity; press freedom mediocre for a democracy. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 82% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 82% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Strong independent courts (WJP 15/143). (WJP 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Credible; the 2018-19 labour-stats scandal was investigated and resolved. (Statistics Bureau)

Civil Service Capacity - High competence and continuity; slow digitalization. (OECD)

Press Freedom - Mediocre for a democracy (RSF ~66): the press-club (kisha) system, self-censorship, and advertiser pressure. (RSF 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, backed by tested parliamentary oversight and a long unbroken record of apolitical command.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.43 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +5.43 │ 74% │

│ long │ +5.43 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Restored single-party dominance and very high social order, against a low immigration ceiling and a locked-in demographic collapse. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 78% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 75% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 72% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 85% │ -4.0 │ -5.50 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Held at +3: reports of PM Takaichi's falling support and a considered cabinet/LDP reshuffle while prioritizing quake response are snippet-sourced this cycle (low confidence, unverified against a primary poll - flagged, not booked as a move).

Civil Liberties - A nationalist legislative package became law: the Takaichi government closed the session ~July 25 having passed 64 of 64 cabinet bills, including a ban on desecration of the Japanese flag and an imperial-succession overhaul, with approval sliding (Asahi 60% -> 53%, ANN 49.2%, Mainichi ~41%) and 71% disapproving of the cost-of-living response (Japan Times, Bloomberg - independent). A speech-restrictive statute enacted through total legislative control: worsened 5 -> 4; confidence held.

Treatment Non Citizens - Lawful, expanding labor channels (Highly Skilled Professional and Specified Skilled Worker visas), but capped, with the language barrier and limited path to belonging real ceilings; a 2025 deportation drive. Open for skilled labor, low belonging. (OECD Migration Outlook 2025)

Social Cohesion - Very high social order and low crime, but rising anti-immigrant politics and reported crime up for a third straight year. (Japan Times)

Demographics - Among the world's worst: population ~123M and falling, ~29% aged 65+, fertility ~1.15, fewer than 670k births in 2025 (a record low). Locked-in negative skew. (IPSS; Statistics Bureau)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.31 │ 73% │

│ mid │ +1.16 │ 73% │

│ long │ +1.0 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A core US treaty ally, rearming, with an elevated regional-conflict tail (China/Taiwan/North Korea). (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 72% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A core US treaty ally, rearming to 2% of GDP early, with a next-gen fighter program. (CRS)

Conflict Involvement - Territorial friction with China continued (July 7 Senkaku coast-guard standoff), even as Japan finalized the transfer of five Abukuma-class destroyer escorts to the Philippines, deepening regional security alignment (Japan Times, Planet Today/JCG - independent). Held at -4; confidence held.

Sanctions Capital Controls - Free capital mobility; aligned with G7 sanctions, no domestic controls. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.83 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +1.83 │ 74% │

│ long │ +1.83 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

World-class infrastructure, healthcare, and very low crime, against the standout seismic/tsunami risk (offset by world-best preparedness). (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 82% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 78% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Resilient/high-capacity but with real exposure - intensifying typhoons, extreme heat, sea-level on dense coasts. (IPCC AR6; ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Universal coverage with world-leading longevity and outcomes; ageing-driven cost strain. (OECD)

Infrastructure - World-class rail, transit, and utilities. (observed)

Crime Safety - A genuine strength: homicide ~0.78/100k, among the lowest globally. (NPA)

Disaster Insurance - Worsened -3 -> -4 on a realized event cluster: the July 28 M6.8 Kumamoto earthquake's toll climbed through the window (34 dead by July 31, other counts 39 dead/170+ injured; ~300,000 evacuated; 800+ of 4,500 homes destroyed or damaged in Hikawa - USGS primary on the event, wire on tolls), and Typhoon Dolphin struck Okinawa Aug 8 (5 injured, 14,000 buildings without power). Two dated hits in one window against an already-stretched catastrophe-insurance market.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.75 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +2.65 │ 75% │

│ long │ +2.55 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +2.91 │ 74% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +2.45 │ 74% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +2.13 │ 74% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +2.98 │ +2.91 │ +2.91 │

│ Assets │ +2.51 │ +2.45 │ +2.59 │

│ Currency │ +2.13 │ +2.07 │ +2.31 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘