- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics leaned on independent sources (IMF Art IV, World Bank, EBRD, V-Dem, RSF, TI, Freedom House, HRW, Eurasianet, RFE/RL); Kazakh state/state-aligned outlets used only for neutral demographic/disaster facts, with reform claims discounted against independent reporting.

- Economic figures are IMF/EBRD-validated. Two notable updates: inflation is higher and stickier (~10-12%, a base rate ~18%) than older priors, and the oil-export pipeline chokepoint risk materialised via 2025 drone strikes.

- Standout drags: entrenched authoritarian institutions, weak rule of law/press, sticky inflation, a single-point oil-transit dependence on Russia, and severe water degradation. Offsets: fiscal buffers and young demographics.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

Fiscal buffers and a strong commodity base, against sticky inflation, limited monetary autonomy, and a resource-curse/transit-chokepoint dynamic. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 85% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Low public debt and a large oil-funded National Fund buffer, against a wide non-oil deficit, an eroding fund, and oil-revenue dependence. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - Limited real autonomy - the base rate forced to ~18% to chase inflation, with an oil-/ruble-sensitive tenge. (IMF; National Bank)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The tenge holds no reserve status. (definitional)

Inflation - Elevated and sticky (~10-12%), worsened by a VAT hike. (IMF; NBK)

Banking Stability - Cleaned up post-2010s and broadly sound per the IMF, with some opacity. (IMF Art IV)

Trade Actions Capacity - A strong commodity base (oil/gas, world-leading uranium, minerals) but a classic resource curse, with the main oil-export pipeline a Russia-transit chokepoint repeatedly hit in 2025. (Eurasianet; Caspian Policy)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.01 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -1.01 │ 60% │

│ long │ -1.01 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

IMF-usable macro data, against an authoritarian rule of law and state-controlled media. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 90% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 50% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Authoritarian, with no judicial independence; post-2022 'reforms' largely cosmetic and the anti-corruption body folded into the security apparatus. (Freedom House 2026; TI)

Statistical Integrity - Macro data is IMF/EBRD-usable; political and sovereign-fund accounts are opaque. (IMF; TI)

Civil Service Capacity - Capable, oil-funded technocratic pockets, but clientelist. (IMF; Freedom House)

Press Freedom - Low - state/oligarch media control and jailed or harassed journalists. (RSF 2026; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are constitutionally or practically an instrument of a ruling party or a personalist ruler. Civilian control exists in form. Professional insulation from politics does not exist at all. Loyalty purges are therefore an available tool.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.20 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -3.20 │ 59% │

│ long │ -3.20 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Young demographics, against suppressed authoritarian stability and restricted liberties. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ 0.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Managed authoritarian calm after the violent January-2022 unrest - suppressed rather than resolved - with a succession/repression tail. (Freedom House; Eurasianet)

Civil Liberties - Restricted assembly and opposition, NGO curbs, and online prosecution. (Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - Lawful-ish work/residence routes (it absorbed Russians in 2022), but an authoritarian-lite ceiling with no path to belonging. (HRW; Eurasianet)

Social Cohesion - Managed, with ethnic-Russian-north and Russia-influence sensitivities and inequality. (Freedom House)

Demographics - A young, growing population with strong natural increase. (UNFPA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.85 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -1.45 │ 60% │

│ long │ -2.05 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A pragmatic multi-vector hedger, against acute Russia-dependence and transit-spillover exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A careful multi-vector hedger - Russia, China, and the West - pragmatic but Russia-constrained. (Carnegie; Eurasianet)

Conflict Involvement - No direct war but acute Russia-dependence/spillover - the oil-export route hit by drones, sanctions-circumvention scrutiny, and a long Russia/China border. (Eurasianet; Carnegie)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Unsanctioned but under circumvention scrutiny, with a managed capital account. (IMF; US Treasury)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.55 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -1.55 │ 60% │

│ long │ -1.55 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Oil-funded infrastructure gains, against severe water/climate degradation and landlocked export vulnerability. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 50% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 50% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Aridification, Aral/Balkhash water decline, heat and extreme cold, agricultural exposure; oil-funded but middling readiness. (IPCC AR6; ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - A Soviet-legacy system, uneven and slowly improving. (World Bank)

Infrastructure - Oil-funded gains, but landlocked over vast distances with export routes the core vulnerability. (IMF; Eurasianet)

Crime Safety - Moderate, with manageable ordinary crime. (general)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration against flood and southern seismic exposure. (ReliefWeb)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.22 │ 56% │

│ mid │ -1.32 │ 56% │

│ long │ -1.43 │ 56% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -2.18 │ 59% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -1.71 │ 59% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -1.52 │ 60% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -1.78 │ -1.98 │ -2.18 │

│ Assets │ -1.64 │ -1.71 │ -1.78 │

│ Currency │ -1.52 │ -1.55 │ -1.58 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘