- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV, World Bank, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem, CRS, ACLED) + Kenyan official (KNBS, Central Bank of Kenya, Treasury) + Kenyan independent press (Daily Nation, The Standard, The Star).

- Politics: a government strained after the deadly June-2024 Gen-Z anti-tax protests and 2025 unrest; democratic but pressured, with a 2027 election ahead.

- Standout features: credible monetary management, well-anchored inflation, and a strong constitutional/judicial framework, against high debt, climate exposure, and 2024-25 repression/cohesion strain. Source-lean: HIGH but low-distortion Anglophone (English is official).

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A credible central bank, well-anchored inflation, and sound banks, against a heavy debt overhang. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - High debt ~68% GDP and heavy debt-service, with the 2024 finance-bill protests forcing tax U-turns that deepened the fiscal hole and IMF-program friction. (IMF; World Bank; Treasury)

Monetary Independence - The central bank is credible, with the shilling steady since 2024 and reserves rebuilt. (CBK)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The shilling is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Within the target band and well-managed. (CBK)

Banking Stability - A sophisticated, well-capitalised regional banking sector, with some sovereign-exposure risk. (CBK; World Bank)

Trade Actions Capacity - Diversified - agriculture/tea/horticulture plus a services/fintech hub - with a persistent trade deficit and no resource curse. (World Bank; KNBS)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.98 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +0.98 │ 74% │

│ long │ +0.98 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A strong constitution and credible statistics, against entrenched corruption and impunity. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Worsened -2 -> -3: President Ruto ordered India's Tata Chemicals to halt operations in Kenya on Sept 3 (Reuters, Nairobi dateline). A head of state directing a specific foreign investor to stop operating, outside an evident regulatory process, is the kind of arbitrary executive action that property-rights and regulatory-quality scoring exists to catch.

Statistical Integrity - The statistics agency is credible, with some public-debt-data gaps flagged. (KNBS; IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Functional but uneven, with devolution-era capacity gaps and weak revenue mobilisation. (World Bank)

Press Freedom - A vibrant, pluralistic press, against 2024-25 abduction and digital-intimidation concerns. (RSF; Amnesty)

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.31 │ 66% │

│ mid │ +0.31 │ 66% │

│ long │ +0.31 │ 66% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A demographic dividend, against protest-era repression, ethnic-bloc politics, and youth unemployment. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 72% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Saba Saba (July 7) protests drew 1,000-3,000 in Nairobi demanding accountability for extrajudicial killings and police brutality; authorities deployed heavy security, sealed the Parliament area and arrested ~10 - a continuation of the year-long youth-protest/crackdown cycle under Ruto, without new fatalities reported (Al Jazeera, France 24 - independent/tilt). Held at -4; confidence held.

Civil Liberties - Held at -3 with a direction flag: Ruto said July 21 that 2024 Gen Z protesters have 'graduated from protesters to goons' and ordered a crackdown on 'criminal elements hijacking peaceful protests' (Sahara Reporters, Kenyan outlets - no wire pickup, medium confidence) - rhetorical reclassification of protesters as criminals ahead of enforcement, noted but not scored alone.

Treatment Non Citizens - Worsened 1 -> -2, a three-point move and the largest in this pass: President Ruto's order closing foreign-owned small businesses hit its deadline on Monday Sept 7, with Burundian traders rushing to leave and roughly 16,000 Burundian refugees and asylum seekers affected, queuing at their embassy for travel documents (Business Day Sept 7, Africanews Sept 8). Burundi has raised it diplomatically. This is a categorical expulsion of a livelihood class rather than a visa tightening, and it lands on a refugee population specifically, which is why it crosses from positive to negative rather than easing one step. Confidence 0.65 -> 0.72 on two independent regional chains.

Social Cohesion - Ethnic-bloc politics, high inequality, and acute youth unemployment driving unrest. (World Bank)

Demographics - A young, fast-growing population - a dividend strained by a jobs gap. (KNBS; UN)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.59 │ 73% │

│ mid │ -2.59 │ 73% │

│ long │ -2.59 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A valued Western partner and regional hub, against cross-border terrorism exposure. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 82% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A US/Western partner (a major non-NATO ally) and African diplomatic hub - pragmatic. (CRS)

Conflict Involvement - Held at -3 with confidence up: an al-Shabaab IED ambush in Mandera killed five Kenyan officers July 28, including four of the elite Special Operations Group (Reuters - wire; The Star Kenya; Xinhua corroborating) - the cross-border spillover pattern continuing at its established level.

Sanctions Capital Controls - Broadly open and unsanctioned, with some FX friction. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.70 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +1.70 │ 75% │

│ long │ +1.70 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Good regional infrastructure, against drought/flood exposure, an underfunded health system, and elevated crime. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 78% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 68% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 72% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Horn drought plus deadly 2024 floods on a rain-dependent agriculture, with relatively better regional readiness. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - Worsened -2 -> -3: a nurses' strike reached 40 days and Kenya's national human rights commission attributed 79 maternal and neonatal deaths to the resulting care gap (Africa Intelligence Brief, Sept 7). The attribution is by the country's own statutory human rights body rather than by the health ministry, so it is not the government grading itself. Held to one step and confidence 0.65 -> 0.68 because the finding rests on a single reporting chain.

Infrastructure - HELD at +2: an air traffic controllers' strike hit Jomo Kenyatta International Airport on Aug 31, stranding passengers, and was over by early September with the underlying pay dispute unresolved (Bloomberg, Washington Post, UPI all dated Aug 31). A short, resolved disruption with a live underlying grievance corroborates the level and does not move it.

Crime Safety - Urban crime and terrorism-adjacent risk in border and coastal zones. (CRS)

Disaster Insurance - Very low penetration, with some parametric drought schemes. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.39 │ 69% │

│ mid │ -2.39 │ 69% │

│ long │ -2.39 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -0.81 │ 70% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.25 │ 72% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +0.79 │ 72% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -0.81 │ -0.81 │ -0.81 │

│ Assets │ +0.25 │ +0.25 │ +0.25 │

│ Currency │ +0.79 │ +0.79 │ +0.79 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘