- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, Freedom House, RSF, HRW, V-Dem, FPRI) + international press (RFE/RL, Eurasianet); state media EXCLUDED on governance.

- Central Asia's historically freest state in rapid authoritarian backsliding under President Japarov - a 2021 super-presidential constitution and a 2024-2025 media crackdown (Kloop shut, journalists jailed, 'foreign agents' and media-registration laws).

- Standout features: a genuine but fragile boom (~9-11% growth on Russia-bound re-exports, remittances, and Kumtor gold, with sanctions-circumvention and overheating risk), eased Tajikistan-border risk (a March 2025 demarcation treaty), and chronic hydropower-driven winter energy crises.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

Strong growth and falling debt, but on a narrow, Russia-linked, overheating-prone base. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 65% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Public debt fell to ~36.6% of GDP (2024) on strong growth and a 2024 surplus, staying under ~42% even as the deficit widens. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - A relatively open managed float with an inflation-targeting central bank, but small, dollarized, and Russia-linked. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The som is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - ~9.4% in 2025, above the 5-7% target, with overheating signs. (IMF; National Statistical Committee)

Banking Stability - Rapid credit expansion and re-export-driven inflows raise overheating/AML concerns against contained headline metrics. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Trade Actions Capacity - The boom is built on Russia-bound re-exports (sanctions-circumvention exposure) plus gold and remittances - a narrow, externally fragile base. (IMF; Eurasianet)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.70 │ 65% │

│ mid │ +0.70 │ 65% │

│ long │ +0.70 │ 65% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Backsliding fast under a super-presidential constitution, though still the region's most open. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 75% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Backsliding under the 2021 super-presidential constitution, with politicized prosecutions, though still less total than its neighbours. (Freedom House; HRW 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Comparatively open economic reporting (a normal IMF Art IV cycle) versus rising political opacity. (IMF; V-Dem)

Civil Service Capacity - Functional but patronage-driven and destabilized by recurrent purges (the 2026 dismantling of Tashiyev's network). (FPRI 2026; Eurasianet)

Press Freedom - RSF 146/180 (2026, still the region's highest) but falling - Kloop shut, journalists jailed, and new 'foreign agents'/registration laws. (RSF 2026; HRW 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.50 │ 64% │

│ mid │ -2.50 │ 64% │

│ long │ -2.50 │ 64% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Consolidated power but high base-rate instability, with shrinking-but-contested civic space. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.50 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Japarov consolidated power and won the 2026 tandem rupture, but a history of three revolutions and ongoing purges keep base-rate instability high. (FPRI 2026; Eurasianet)

Civil Liberties - Shrinking but still the region's most contested civic space, with protest increasingly criminalized. (Freedom House; HRW 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - More open and historically migration-tolerant than its neighbours, but not a secure long-term destination amid rising nationalism. (Freedom House)

Social Cohesion - North-south and Uzbek-minority cleavages persist; the 2025 border deal eased the external flashpoint with Tajikistan. (HRW; ICG)

Demographics - A young, growing population, though heavily dependent on labour emigration to Russia. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.32 │ 61% │

│ mid │ -1.46 │ 61% │

│ long │ -1.59 │ 61% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Russia-dependent with a China hedge, eased border risk, but sanctions-circumvention exposure. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +1.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A CSTO/EAEU member deeply dependent on Russia (remittances, trade, security) with a Chinese-investment hedge - a follower, not autonomous. (IMF; ICG)

Conflict Involvement - The March 2025 border treaty with Tajikistan reopened crossings and sharply cut the 2021-22 clash risk, with residual caution warranted. (HRW; Euronews)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Not sanctioned but a documented Russia sanctions-circumvention hub, creating secondary-sanctions and banking-access risk. (IMF; Eurasianet)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.60 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -0.95 │ 60% │

│ long │ -1.30 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Glacier-melt-driven winter energy crises and high seismic/landslide hazard. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -5.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 50% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Glacier melt threatening regional water security, plus GLOF and landslide risk, low readiness. (IPCC AR6 cryosphere; WB CCDR)

Healthcare - Basic public coverage with uneven rural access and heavy reliance on remittance-funded private care. (WHO; World Bank)

Infrastructure - ~95% hydro-dependent electricity makes winter shortages chronic, reliant on Kazakh/Uzbek emergency imports in 2025-26. (IEA; Asia-Plus)

Crime Safety - Moderate street crime and periodic unrest/protest risk in Bishkek and Osh. (soft/indirect)

Disaster Insurance - High seismic and glacial-lake-outburst/landslide hazard with very low insurance penetration. (seismic-hazard literature)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.54 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -2.80 │ 58% │

│ long │ -3.06 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -1.75 │ 62% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -0.88 │ 63% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -0.22 │ 64% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -1.56 │ -1.66 │ -1.75 │

│ Assets │ -0.79 │ -0.88 │ -0.97 │

│ Currency │ -0.22 │ -0.27 │ -0.33 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘