- Live-data refresh (2026-08-25): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-14 -> 08-25 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central; WebSearch budget exhausted mid-pass, central verification via self-hosted SearXNG + targeted fetches), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war entered an economic-strangulation phase even as exit diplomacy advanced. The US launched the global secondary-sanctions campaign 'Operation Economic Outcast' (Aug 24, 60+ designations, all-sector scope); Iran's crude exports effectively halted (Kharg Island berths empty since July 31, satellite-verified; China-bound imports ~823k -> ~534k bpd); the rial crossed 2 million per dollar; Iran fired its first ballistic missiles toward the UAE (Aug 18) and the UAE, Iran's second-largest trade partner, cut ALL trade indefinitely (Aug 19). Yet no US strike on Iranian soil was confirmed in-window and Iran-Oman Hormuz-corridor talks reached joint-statement drafting in Tehran (Aug 25). A global long-bond rout (Aug 18) set multi-decade records (UK 50Y 5.392%; JGB 10Y highest since 1996); the US Treasury doubled long-end buybacks (Aug 19), the Fed-independence fight reopened (Cook removal deadline Aug 26), and DXY hit a 3-month low with gold at a 3-month high. US-Canada trade talks collapsed (Aug 21), first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect (Aug 22), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation (eff. Sept 8). Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Russia's Black Sea grain export capacity offline and Russian inflation crossed 10%. DRC Ebola deaths reached 2,642 (PHEIC reaffirmed) while Geneva produced an M23 peace-talks roadmap. Pakistan's KP floods killed 368 in five days and Islamabad defied a Supreme Court order on Imran Khan. Venezuela freed 131 political prisoners. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the Sept-2025 Libya 'Sorman/Zawiya clashes' recirculation, Ghana's pre-window IMF completion run as fresh, Cuba's pre-window Aug 2-3 blackout, and a third clean Thailand-Cambodia verification (ceasefire holds, ASEAN observers verifying). CORRECTION: Serbia's June 27-30 Vucic resignation-pledge arc, missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since 05-28, is booked late as a note. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics rebuilt from independent sources (IMF Art IV 2025, World Bank, ADB, V-Dem, RSF, Freedom House, HRW, Amnesty, TI, CSIS) + independent/exile press; Cambodian state media EXCLUDED there.

- An entrenched one-party Hun dynasty, heavily China-aligned, with a notorious online-scam-center industry a major illicit and reputational drag.

- Standout drags: no judicial independence, a jailed/exiled opposition, a scam-economy/trafficking hub, and China-alignment; low dollar-anchored inflation and a young population are offsets.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

Low debt and dollar-anchored inflation, against a dollarized no-policy-lever model and property/scam-economy risk. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Low debt with a low distress risk, but a widening primary deficit, a narrow revenue base, and LDC-graduation finance loss ahead. (IMF Art IV 2025; World Bank)

Monetary Independence - Heavy deposit dollarization leaves little real monetary lever; de-dollarization stalled. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The riel is not held externally. (IMF)

Inflation - ~1-2%, dollar-anchored stability. (World Bank; IMF)

Banking Stability - Worsened -5 -> -6 on an in-window deterioration: APD Bank - under withdrawal restrictions since March's 'system maintenance' shutdown - moved July 31 to APPOINTMENT-ONLY withdrawals allocated alphabetically, six months unresolved (Cambodia Investment Review/CamboJA - domestic independent, moderate self-censorship environment flagged), after Panda Commercial's February license revocation; the IMF cut 2026 growth to 3% (July 8) on weak demand and trade uncertainty. Confidence contagion outlasting the originating failure.

Trade Actions Capacity - Garments, tourism, and construction, but a vast online-scam economy and an LDC/tariff risk, with growth slowing. (IMF; UNODC; CSIS)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.90 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -0.90 │ 60% │

│ long │ -0.90 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

No judicial independence and among the worst press environments. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 90% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 90% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 50% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - No judicial independence, entrenched party patronage, and deep corruption. (Freedom House 2025; TI)

Statistical Integrity - IMF-engaged macro data usable; opacity beyond it. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Patronage-driven and weak, with cosmetic anti-corruption purges. (Freedom House 2025)

Press Freedom - Independent media shut, accreditation tightening, and a journalist killed - a very poor RSF standing. (RSF; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are constitutionally or practically an instrument of a ruling party or a personalist ruler. Civilian control exists in form. Professional insulation from politics does not exist at all. Loyalty purges are therefore an available tool.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.24 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -4.24 │ 59% │

│ long │ -4.24 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An entrenched but brittle dynasty with a crushed opposition, against a young population. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ -0.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 90% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Held at near +3: ceasefire holds under active ASEAN observer verification (Aug 20, Philippine-led team at Banteay Meanchey crossings; Cambodian coverage pro-Phnom-Penh, framing flagged). No kinetic event; long -4 unchanged.

Civil Liberties - The opposition jailed or exiled, with no real assembly or association. (Freedom House; HRW)

Treatment Non Citizens - Easy affluent residency but no path to belonging under an authoritarian ceiling. (observed)

Social Cohesion - Managed, with land-rights and inequality grievances. (HRW)

Demographics - A young population with a favourable dependency ratio. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.0 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -2.05 │ 60% │

│ long │ -3.10 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Heavily China-aligned, with a 2025 border flare-up and scam-center friction. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Heavily China-aligned (the Ream naval base, BRI) and an ASEAN outlier. (CSIS; Crisis Group)

Conflict Involvement - Same correction as Thailand: no new border war in-window - the ceasefire holds, and the flagged 'fresh clashes' were misdated 2025 coverage. The live developments are structural: Cambodia's UNCLOS conciliation push froze land-border talks (Thai FM, July 20), Phnom Penh's government-tilted press escalated 'occupation' rhetoric July 28, checkpoints remain closed, and China continues arming Cambodia while positioning as mediator (Khaosod - independent; Phnom Penh Post - pro-government tilt, flagged). Held at -5 with confidence up.

Sanctions Capital Controls - Targeted Western sanctions on scam-linked individuals; open-ish capital. (US Treasury)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.50 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.50 │ 60% │

│ long │ -4.50 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Mekong climate exposure and weak healthcare, with a scam/trafficking-hub crime concern. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - High vulnerability, low readiness - Mekong-flow disruption, flood/drought, Tonle Sap stress. (ND-GAIN; IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - Low public spend and a weak system. (World Bank)

Infrastructure - Improving via Chinese BRI investment but uneven and debt-tied. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - Moderate street crime plus a major online-scam-center and trafficking hub. (UNODC; CSIS)

Disaster Insurance - Very low penetration. (sector data)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.20 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.30 │ 60% │

│ long │ -4.40 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -3.43 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -2.72 │ 60% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -2.10 │ 60% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -2.76 │ -3.09 │ -3.43 │

│ Assets │ -2.61 │ -2.72 │ -2.84 │

│ Currency │ -2.10 │ -2.16 │ -2.21 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘