- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, ADB, UN/OHCHR, Freedom House, Lowy, USIP) + international press; state media EXCLUDED. Extremely data-thin (~130k population); many factors are low-confidence inference.

- Among the most climate-existentially-threatened states on earth (avg elevation <2m; ~66% land loss at +0.9m sea-level rise); bought land in Fiji for relocation. Uses the Australian dollar.

- Standout drags: a 2022 judicial crisis (President Maamau attempted to deport a foreign High Court judge and suspended the Court of Appeal), a transactional 2019 pivot to China, and existential sea-level rise; the RERF sovereign fund (~330% of GDP) is a genuine buffer.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A fishing-fee-and-RERF-financed economy using the Australian dollar, with no own monetary policy. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 40% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Deficit ~22% of GDP in 2024 narrowing to ~15% in 2025 on a wage freeze, structurally financed by RERF withdrawals not own revenue. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - Uses the Australian dollar, no central bank - imports RBA policy entirely. (IMF; definitional)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - No own currency; the AUD is a foreign unit. (definitional)

Inflation - Imported via the AUD - elevated but moderating, with no domestic monetary driver. (IMF 2025)

Banking Stability - A tiny, shallow sector with little public supervision data. (inference; IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - A negligible export base - income is dominated by volatile fishing-license fees and aid, with chronic import dependence. (IMF; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.85 │ 68% │

│ mid │ -1.85 │ 68% │

│ long │ -1.85 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A serious 2022 attack on judicial independence, with thin capacity and limited independent media. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 40% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - The 2022 attack on the judiciary (a judge's deportation, suspension of the entire Court of Appeal) badly damaged independence and remains unresolved. (UN/OHCHR 2022; CIVICUS)

Statistical Integrity - IMF-engaged with usable but very low-capacity, lagging statistics. (IMF Art IV)

Civil Service Capacity - A thin, remote, capacity-constrained administration spread across dispersed atolls. (World Bank; inference)

Press Freedom - A small, state-dominated media landscape with limited independent outlets; not separately RSF-ranked. (inference)

Civil-Military Relations - No standing armed forces. The factor reduces here to the politicization of the police or gendarmerie. It is scored positive by default. Confidence is held low, as the usual evidence base does not apply.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.12 │ 55% │

│ mid │ -2.12 │ 55% │

│ long │ -2.12 │ 55% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Orderly elections undercut by rule-of-law backsliding, over a homogeneous but congested society. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 50% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 40% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 50% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Maamau won a third term (Oct 2024); orderly elections but recent executive-judiciary clashes and opposition concern over China opacity. (Al Jazeera; USIP 2024)

Civil Liberties - A broadly free society but with recent rule-of-law backsliding as a drag. (inference; Freedom House framing)

Treatment Non Citizens - A small foreign population; the deportation of a long-resident foreign judge is a negative signal. (UN/OHCHR; inference)

Social Cohesion - A largely homogeneous I-Kiribati society, with the main fracture outer-island vs South Tarawa congestion/inequality. (inference)

Demographics - Young but poor and aid-dependent, with severe South Tarawa overcrowding and emigration pressure. (World Bank; inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.62 │ 51% │

│ mid │ -0.62 │ 51% │

│ long │ -0.62 │ 51% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A transactional, opaque pivot to China, conflict-free but a contested square on the Pacific chessboard. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 50% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 60% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Pivoted hard to China (2019), reducing predictability for Western partners - a transactional and opaque alignment. (USIP; Newsweek)

Conflict Involvement - No armed conflict; the risk is being a contested square on the US-China Pacific chessboard (Kanton), not active war. (Reuters; inference)

Sanctions Capital Controls - No sanctions; AUD use means open capital flows, with a tiny financial footprint. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.29 │ 55% │

│ mid │ +1.29 │ 55% │

│ long │ +1.29 │ 55% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An existential sea-level threat, with very limited services across remote atolls. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 55% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 40% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - A low-lying atoll nation - freshwater-lens salinization and inundation threaten habitability; bought land in Fiji as contingency. (IPCC AR6; ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Very limited services, with heavy reliance on overseas referral and donor (incl. recent Chinese) medical support. (inference; RNZ)

Infrastructure - Remote dispersed atolls with weak power/water/transport - donor-funded projects only. (World Bank; IMF)

Crime Safety - A low violent-crime baseline; the main risks are environmental, not crime. (inference)

Disaster Insurance - Acute, compounding sea-level/king-tide/drought hazard with negligible insurance; self-insures via RERF/aid. (inference; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.41 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -4.67 │ 59% │

│ long │ -4.92 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -1.93 │ 56% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -1.65 │ 60% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -1.44 │ 63% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -1.85 │ -1.89 │ -1.93 │

│ Assets │ -1.63 │ -1.65 │ -1.68 │

│ Currency │ -1.44 │ -1.44 │ -1.44 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘