- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, ECCB, Freedom House, RSF, InSight Crime) + international and regional press.

- The smallest sovereign state in the Americas and the original/most-established CBI 'golden passport' program (a huge revenue share) - revenue more than halved in 2024 on EU-driven price floors and tighter due diligence, blowing the deficit out to ~11% of GDP.

- Standout features: high income and low debt (~61%) built from past CBI windfalls, against a permanent CBI-revenue shock, severe violent crime, the heaviest passport-scrutiny exposure, and a latent Nevis-secession structure.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

Low debt from past CBI savings but a large deficit after a permanent CBI-revenue halving; peg-anchored. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -0.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Deficit ~11% of GDP (2024) on the CBI collapse, but debt still low at ~61% thanks to past CBI savings - giving room to consolidate. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - An ECCB member with a credible peg. (ECCB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The XCD is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Eased to ~1% in 2024, ~2% projected 2025. (IMF)

Banking Stability - The ECCU system is sound; small-system concentration risk. (ECCB)

Trade Actions Capacity - The smallest sovereign state in the Americas, with minimal trade leverage. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.07 │ 80% │

│ mid │ +0.26 │ 80% │

│ long │ +0.59 │ 80% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Functioning institutions with reformed CBI governance, strained by crime enforcement. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 55% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Functioning institutions with reformed CBI governance (an independent CIU, a 2023 board), though crime strains enforcement. (Freedom House)

Statistical Integrity - Full IMF/ECCB engagement, with thin capacity. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Relatively capable for a high-income micro-state, with the CIU professionalized. (IMF)

Press Freedom - 'Free', with OECS-wide concerns on political media ownership. (RSF)

Civil-Military Relations - No standing armed forces. The factor reduces here to the politicization of the police or gendarmerie. It is scored positive by default. Confidence is held low, as the usual evidence base does not apply.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.58 │ 56% │

│ mid │ +2.58 │ 56% │

│ long │ +2.58 │ 56% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Stable governance with a latent federal Nevis-secession structure and high violent crime. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 65% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 40% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 50% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 50% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Stable under PM Terrance Drew (SKNLP, 2022), but the federal St Kitts-Nevis structure adds latent friction (Nevis retains a constitutional right to secede). (Freedom House)

Civil Liberties - Freedom House 2025 score 89/100, 'Free'. (Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - A large naturalized-by-investment population with no notable discrimination reported, with thin data. (lower confidence)

Social Cohesion - Cohesive overall, but with high violent crime and a St Kitts/Nevis identity cleavage. (observed)

Demographics - A small workforce, with high income a partial cushion. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.39 │ 58% │

│ mid │ +3.39 │ 58% │

│ long │ +3.39 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Predictable and non-aligned, but the highest passport-sanction exposure of the cohort. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 50% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - CARICOM/OECS/Commonwealth - predictable and non-aligned. (observed)

Conflict Involvement - No conflict exposure. (observed)

Sanctions Capital Controls - The original CBI program is the prime EU/US/FATF scrutiny target - the highest passport-sanction/Schengen-suspension exposure of the cohort. (EU; IMI Daily)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.02 │ 66% │

│ mid │ +3.02 │ 66% │

│ long │ +3.02 │ 66% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Relatively good infrastructure and better-resourced healthcare, against hurricane exposure and high crime. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - A small two-island SIDS - hurricane belt plus coastal/tourism dependence plus SLR. (IPCC AR6 SIDS)

Healthcare - Among the better-resourced in the region given higher income, still with off-island referral for complex cases. (observed)

Infrastructure - Relatively good for the region, with a geothermal project advancing (funding secured). (observed)

Crime Safety - ~28 murders in 2024 (~60/100k), among the world's highest per-capita rates despite a year-on-year decline. (InSight Crime)

Disaster Insurance - A CCRIF member, with the same regional protection gap and rising reinsurance costs. (CCRIF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.50 │ 65% │

│ mid │ -2.75 │ 65% │

│ long │ -3.0 │ 65% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +1.57 │ 62% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +1.12 │ 68% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +0.91 │ 72% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +1.52 │ +1.55 │ +1.57 │

│ Assets │ +0.99 │ +1.12 │ +1.25 │

│ Currency │ +0.91 │ +1.13 │ +1.35 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘