- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-25): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-14 -> 08-25 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central; WebSearch budget exhausted mid-pass, central verification via self-hosted SearXNG + targeted fetches), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war entered an economic-strangulation phase even as exit diplomacy advanced. The US launched the global secondary-sanctions campaign 'Operation Economic Outcast' (Aug 24, 60+ designations, all-sector scope); Iran's crude exports effectively halted (Kharg Island berths empty since July 31, satellite-verified; China-bound imports ~823k -> ~534k bpd); the rial crossed 2 million per dollar; Iran fired its first ballistic missiles toward the UAE (Aug 18) and the UAE, Iran's second-largest trade partner, cut ALL trade indefinitely (Aug 19). Yet no US strike on Iranian soil was confirmed in-window and Iran-Oman Hormuz-corridor talks reached joint-statement drafting in Tehran (Aug 25). A global long-bond rout (Aug 18) set multi-decade records (UK 50Y 5.392%; JGB 10Y highest since 1996); the US Treasury doubled long-end buybacks (Aug 19), the Fed-independence fight reopened (Cook removal deadline Aug 26), and DXY hit a 3-month low with gold at a 3-month high. US-Canada trade talks collapsed (Aug 21), first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect (Aug 22), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation (eff. Sept 8). Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Russia's Black Sea grain export capacity offline and Russian inflation crossed 10%. DRC Ebola deaths reached 2,642 (PHEIC reaffirmed) while Geneva produced an M23 peace-talks roadmap. Pakistan's KP floods killed 368 in five days and Islamabad defied a Supreme Court order on Imran Khan. Venezuela freed 131 political prisoners. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the Sept-2025 Libya 'Sorman/Zawiya clashes' recirculation, Ghana's pre-window IMF completion run as fresh, Cuba's pre-window Aug 2-3 blackout, and a third clean Thailand-Cambodia verification (ceasefire holds, ASEAN observers verifying). CORRECTION: Serbia's June 27-30 Vucic resignation-pledge arc, missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since 05-28, is booked late as a note. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-07): news pull since the 2026-06-18 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire proved repeatedly reversible (remote MoU June 17 + 60-day Burgenstock roadmap June 21, then a Kiku-tanker strike -> US strikes on 5 Iranian sites -> Iranian retaliation on US bases in Kuwait/Bahrain June 27-28 -> fresh Saudi/Qatari tanker strikes July 7 -> Trump 'finish the job'), even as verified relief landed (OFAC General License X, a 60-day Iranian-oil-export waiver ~$8-9B) and Hormuz volumes recovered to ~90% of pre-war baseline. Iran's $24B/$12B frozen-asset claim stays Mehr/parliamentary-sourced and US-denied -> excluded. Secondary: Russia's refinery/fuel crisis + deficit blowout (160% of the annual target, exile-press sourced); Ukraine's EU-accession progress + NATO 140bn-euro pledge vs the deadliest Kyiv strikes of the year; Venezuela's twin quake + constitutional-legality shock; certified-but-contested elections in Peru (Fujimori) and Colombia (de la Espriella); Bolivia's blockade crisis easing under a state of emergency; US inflation topping 4% and SCOTUS striking the birthright-citizenship order while domestic-terrorism sentences and ICE-detention deaths mount; China's rare-earth coercion + HK Article 23 expansion; India's near-final US trade deal vs a press-freedom slide; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk watch. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-03): news pull since the 2026-05-28 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; Iran's Hormuz-closure claims sourced to Tasnim are treated as regime intent, not verified action). A few late-May items not captured in the prior pass are flagged in-note. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV, OECD, WJP, RSF, TI) + Korean official (Statistics Korea, Bank of Korea) + independent press.

- NEGATIVE-SKEW case: the world's lowest fertility (~0.75, a locked-in population decline) plus a demonstrated institutional shock (the Dec-2024 martial-law crisis) dominate the tail.

- Source-lean: moderate-to-high Anglophone on the political crisis and North Korea; economic/demographic numbers from Korean/multilateral primaries.

- Recalibrated 2026-05-29 for the 2026 Iran war (Operation Epic Fury, US+Israel vs Iran from 28 Feb) and the Strait of Hormuz closure: blockade of ~1/5 of world oil+LNG, attacks/threats on Gulf desalination (water security), and the global energy shock. The two-week 8 Apr ceasefire collapsed by late May - the US renewed strikes on Iran ~25-26 May (Trump convened Camp David) and the war resumed, with Hormuz still blockaded. (Reuters; BBC; NYT; CNN; ISW; Al Jazeera; CSIS; Wikipedia)

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A credible central bank and an export-tech powerhouse, against ageing-driven fiscal pressure and very high household debt. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ 0.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 80% │ 0.0 │ -0.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 78% │ -3.0 │ 0.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 78% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - The government approved a ~15.2tn-won cash-voucher stimulus in July, a sizeable new outlay (Aju Press - independent). Near 3 -> 2; long held -2; confidence held.

Monetary Independence - An independent, credible Bank of Korea (2% inflation target). (Bank of Korea)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The won is freely traded but not a major reserve currency; no exorbitant privilege. (BoK)

Inflation - May CPI hit 3.1% y/y (26-month high; petroleum products +24.2%), oil-driven and expected by the BOK to persist near 3% despite a fuel-tax cut (Reuters, UPI, Seoul Economic Daily). Near -1 -> -3.

Banking Stability - The BoK repeatedly flags very high household debt and housing imbalances as the key stability risk; macroprudential tightening underway. (Bank of Korea FSR)

Trade Actions Capacity - Improved near +3 -> +4: first-20-days August exports rose 56% y/y to a record $55.2B with semiconductor shipments nearly tripling to $26B (47.2% of exports) on AI-cycle demand; trade surplus $14B (Korea Customs Service via Korea Herald/Times; a high-integrity statistical apparatus, usable). Concentration in one product cycle is the flagged fragility; the realized trajectory is strongly positive.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.15 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +2.02 │ 75% │

│ long │ +1.89 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong courts and high state capacity that functioned through the crisis; press freedom slipped sharply. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 82% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Strong courts (which upheld the impeachment 8-0), though chaebol entanglement and politicized-prosecution dynamics persist. (WJP 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Credible Statistics Korea / Bank of Korea data. (Statistics Korea)

Civil Service Capacity - High competence; institutions functioned through the crisis. (OECD)

Press Freedom - A 'fake news' law took effect July 7 allowing punitive damages (up to 5x proven losses) against outlets and influencers for spreading 'false information'; journalist and civil-liberties groups warn its vague wording will chill critical reporting on officials and big business (Associated Press - wire). Worsened 0 -> -2; confidence held.

Civil-Military Relations - Scored on a tested failure that the system survived. The December 2024 martial law declaration sent troops to the National Assembly on the order of a sitting president. The attempt failed. The legislature voted it down within hours. The president was impeached and removed. The commanders involved were prosecuted. The negative is that the order was given and partially executed at all. The offsetting positive is that the professional restraint of the officers on the ground and the accountability process afterwards both worked as designed. That is why this does not sit in the politicized band.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.83 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +3.83 │ 74% │

│ long │ +3.83 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Institutions self-corrected after a martial-law shock, against intense polarization and a locked-in fertility collapse. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 72% │ +1.0 │ +1.50 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 78% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 72% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 72% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -6.50 │ -8.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - HELD at near +1: President Lee reshuffled the cabinet on Aug 30 nominating new finance and defence ministers, and his top economic policy adviser resigned days later amid housing-market concerns (Bloomberg, Reuters). Cabinet churn plus an adviser resignation inside one week is friction rather than instability in a system where the executive turnover is routine and constitutional. Long held +2.

Civil Liberties - The same punitive 'fake news' law is a real chilling-effect risk on speech, amid continued (contested, unverified) opposition protests over June local-election 'fraud' claims blockading a vote-counting site (AP; Korea JoongAng Daily - wire/independent; fraud allegations flagged as unproven). Eased 4 -> 3; confidence held.

Treatment Non Citizens - Work/E-visas and a points-based skilled track make entry feasible, but language scoring, capped quotas, and a thin path to belonging/citizenship are real ceilings. (Korea Immigration Service)

Social Cohesion - Intense gender/generational polarization (a stark young-men-vs-women split) offset by high social order. (Carnegie)

Demographics - The world's lowest fertility (~0.75); population declining yearly from 2025, projected ~-30% by 2072. A locked-in negative skew. (Statistics Korea)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.30 │ 73% │

│ mid │ +0.29 │ 73% │

│ long │ +0.29 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A core US treaty ally facing a persistent North Korea standoff. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 74% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A core US treaty ally (defense spend +7.5% FY2026), with some tariff/cost-sharing friction. (CRS)

Conflict Involvement - Held at -5 with confidence up 0.72 -> 0.74: North Korea fired >10 short-range ballistic missiles from the Pyongyang area on Aug 20 as US-ROK drills concluded (third August launch event; 11th test of 2026), prompting an emergency NSC session. A return to the pre-pause signaling baseline the score already carries, not an escalation beyond it.

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open capital account, G7-aligned, no domestic controls. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.03 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +1.03 │ 75% │

│ long │ +1.03 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

World-class infrastructure, healthcare, and very low crime, against ageing-driven cost strain. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 82% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 72% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - High-capacity and resilient - intensifying heat, typhoons, and coastal flooding keep it modestly negative. (IPCC AR6; ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Excellent universal NHI with strong outcomes; ageing-driven cost strain (reserves projected to deplete ~2030). (OECD)

Infrastructure - World-class transit, broadband, and utilities. (observed)

Crime Safety - A genuine strength: homicide ~0.6/100k. (World Bank)

Disaster Insurance - Moderate seismic, typhoon/flood exposure with strong state response capacity. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.08 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +2.98 │ 75% │

│ long │ +2.88 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +2.21 │ 74% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +2.25 │ 75% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +2.23 │ 75% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +2.28 │ +2.24 │ +2.21 │

│ Assets │ +2.31 │ +2.25 │ +2.19 │

│ Currency │ +2.23 │ +2.15 │ +2.07 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘