- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics rebuilt from independent sources (IMF Art IV/DSA, World Bank, ADB, AMRO, V-Dem, RSF, Freedom House, HRW, TI, Lowy) + independent press (RFA, East Asia Forum); Lao state media EXCLUDED there.

- A one-party communist state in debt distress, with a collapsed currency, very high inflation, and crushing China-BRI debt.

- Standout drags: debt distress and a currency collapse, no rule of law/press, China-debt dependence, and weak healthcare; the China railway and hydropower are narrow bright spots. Overall: negative.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

Debt distress, a collapsed kip, and very high inflation on a China-debt-tied resource model. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 70% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - In external and overall debt distress, with public debt ~100% GDP rising and China debt-service being deferred. (IMF 2026 Art IV/DSA; Lowy)

Monetary Independence - The kip down ~60% since 2022, with capital/FX controls and forced export repatriation - no real central-bank independence. (AMRO; RFA)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The kip is not traded internationally. (definitional)

Inflation - Around 28% in 2025, cooling but still acute. (World Bank LEM; Trading Economics)

Banking Stability - Heavily dollarized with thin reserves - a fragile system. (AMRO)

Trade Actions Capacity - Hydropower ('the battery of SE Asia'), mining, and the China railway, but narrow, resource-dependent, China-debt-tied, and landlocked. (East Asia Forum; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.49 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -5.49 │ 60% │

│ long │ -5.49 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A one-party state with no rule of law and total media control. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 50% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A one-party communist state with no judicial independence and weak rule of law. (Freedom House 2025; BTI 2026)

Statistical Integrity - Opaque and weak, with undisclosed debt to China. (Lowy; IMF DSA caveats)

Civil Service Capacity - Weak capacity, hollowed by brain-drain. (World Bank; BTI 2026)

Press Freedom - No independent media and total state control - a near-bottom RSF standing. (Freedom House; RSF)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are constitutionally or practically an instrument of a ruling party or a personalist ruler. Civilian control exists in form. Professional insulation from politics does not exist at all. Loyalty purges are therefore an available tool.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.71 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -6.71 │ 59% │

│ long │ -6.71 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Entrenched one-party rule under economic-crisis pressure, with severe repression. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Entrenched one-party rule, managed but under economic-crisis pressure. (HRW; BTI 2026)

Civil Liberties - Severe restriction, with enforced disappearances and no assembly or expression. (HRW 2025; Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - Limited rights and protections under a one-party ceiling. (HRW; CIVICUS)

Social Cohesion - Managed, with Hmong/ethnic-minority issues and heavy out-migration. (BTI 2026)

Demographics - Young but with 300k+ workers drained to Thailand and labour shortages. (East Asia Forum; RFA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.60 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.60 │ 60% │

│ long │ -4.60 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A heavily China-dependent debt-client, vulnerable to debt leverage. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A heavily China-dependent debt-client (~half of external debt), an ASEAN member with tentative Vietnam de-risking. (East Asia Forum 2026)

Conflict Involvement - No active war, but vulnerable to China debt-leverage. (Lowy)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Active FX/capital controls amid the crisis; not broadly sanctioned. (AMRO)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.05 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -3.05 │ 60% │

│ long │ -3.05 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Mekong climate and dam-disaster exposure, weak healthcare, and poor landlocked infrastructure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 78% │ -4.0 │ -5.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - High vulnerability, low readiness - Mekong dependence/disruption, flood/drought, landslides. (ND-GAIN; IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - Low spend and a weak system, with crisis-driven health-spending cuts. (World Bank)

Infrastructure - The China railway a bright spot but otherwise poor, landlocked, with 'triangle debt' road quality. (World Bank; BTI 2026)

Crime Safety - Low-to-moderate, with Golden-Triangle drug-trade adjacency. (UNODC)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible coverage. (low-income context)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.09 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -5.29 │ 59% │

│ long │ -5.49 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -5.52 │ 59% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -5.31 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -5.32 │ 60% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -5.46 │ -5.49 │ -5.52 │

│ Assets │ -5.29 │ -5.31 │ -5.33 │

│ Currency │ -5.32 │ -5.32 │ -5.32 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘