- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-07): news pull since the 2026-06-18 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire proved repeatedly reversible (remote MoU June 17 + 60-day Burgenstock roadmap June 21, then a Kiku-tanker strike -> US strikes on 5 Iranian sites -> Iranian retaliation on US bases in Kuwait/Bahrain June 27-28 -> fresh Saudi/Qatari tanker strikes July 7 -> Trump 'finish the job'), even as verified relief landed (OFAC General License X, a 60-day Iranian-oil-export waiver ~$8-9B) and Hormuz volumes recovered to ~90% of pre-war baseline. Iran's $24B/$12B frozen-asset claim stays Mehr/parliamentary-sourced and US-denied -> excluded. Secondary: Russia's refinery/fuel crisis + deficit blowout (160% of the annual target, exile-press sourced); Ukraine's EU-accession progress + NATO 140bn-euro pledge vs the deadliest Kyiv strikes of the year; Venezuela's twin quake + constitutional-legality shock; certified-but-contested elections in Peru (Fujimori) and Colombia (de la Espriella); Bolivia's blockade crisis easing under a state of emergency; US inflation topping 4% and SCOTUS striking the birthright-citizenship order while domestic-terrorism sentences and ICE-detention deaths mount; China's rare-earth coercion + HK Article 23 expansion; India's near-final US trade deal vs a press-freedom slide; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk watch. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-03): news pull since the 2026-05-28 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; Iran's Hormuz-closure claims sourced to Tasnim are treated as regime intent, not verified action). A few late-May items not captured in the prior pass are flagged in-note. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF, World Bank, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem) + Lebanese independent press (L'Orient-Le Jour, Megaphone, TIMEP) + HRW/Amnesty/UNHCR.

- Scored on corroborated facts: the 2019 financial collapse and banking insolvency, the 2024 Hezbollah-Israel war that devastated the south, the early-2025 filling of a two-year presidential vacuum (a reform window), and high re-escalation risk. Any specific renewed-2026-war reports are treated as elevated risk, not stated history.

- Standout drags: an insolvent frozen banking system, a defaulted state, sectarian-captured institutions, a war-wrecked south, and collapsed infrastructure; the upside is a fragile 2025 reform window. Overall: negative, near worse than long.

- Recalibrated 2026-05-29 for the 2026 Iran war (Operation Epic Fury, US+Israel vs Iran from 28 Feb) and the Strait of Hormuz closure: blockade of ~1/5 of world oil+LNG, attacks/threats on Gulf desalination (water security), and the global energy shock. The two-week 8 Apr ceasefire collapsed by late May - the US renewed strikes on Iran ~25-26 May (Trump convened Camp David) and the war resumed, with Hormuz still blockaded. (Reuters; BBC; NYT; CNN; ISW; Al Jazeera; CSIS; Wikipedia)

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed (declining) - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Official data is compromised, but a free press and courts still surface the truth. Scores lean on those independent channels, and the state is sliding toward opacity - the confidence here is capped and falling.

A defaulted state and an insolvent, frozen banking system, with no productive base. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -9.0 │ -8.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 90% │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘

Fiscal State - Defaulted in 2020 with collapsed state finances and no credible budget, against an unimplemented 2025 reform-government attempt. (World Bank; IMF)

Monetary Independence - A currency collapse, de-facto dollarization, and a discredited central bank. (State Dept ICS; Freedom House)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - No global role. (definitional)

Inflation - A hyperinflation episode now easing as the economy dollarizes. (World Bank)

Banking Stability - The banking system is insolvent and frozen - depositors locked out since 2019 with no enforced resolution. (TIMEP; Bloomberg)

Trade Actions Capacity - The framework's reconstruction pledges are aspirational and contingent on the ceasefire holding, not yet resourced (Security Council Report - independent). Held at -7; confidence held.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.45 │ 75% │

│ mid │ -6.23 │ 75% │

│ long │ -6.01 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Sectarian-captured and paralysed, with a relatively strong independent press the exception. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 75% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Weak and sectarian-captured with impunity (the Beirut-port-blast investigation long blocked), against a cautious 2025-26 judicial revival. (HRW; TIMEP)

Statistical Integrity - Weak and sparse official data. (IMF data-gap notes)

Civil Service Capacity - Collapsed, clientelist, and paralysed by sectarian quotas, hollowed by exodus. (HRW)

Press Freedom - Regionally pluralistic with a strong independent press, against impunity and journalists targeted in conflict. (RSF; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.10 │ 69% │

│ mid │ -6.10 │ 69% │

│ long │ -6.10 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A fragile confessional system with a 2025 reform window, against deep cleavages, refugee strain, and brain drain. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ -8.0 │ -6.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A confessional power-sharing system that left a two-year presidential vacuum, filled in early 2025 (a reform window after the 2024 Hezbollah-Israel war), but remains deeply fragile with high re-escalation risk. (Al Jazeera; House of Commons Library)

Civil Liberties - Formally freer than regional peers but eroding under security pressure. (Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - Among the world's highest refugee loads per capita under severe strain and official pushback, with no path to belonging. (UNHCR; TCF)

Social Cohesion - Deep sectarian cleavages, a Hezbollah-state duality, and fresh war trauma. (HRW; CFR)

Demographics - Mass emigration and brain drain of the young and professional. (WHO; brain-drain studies)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.25 │ 75% │

│ mid │ -5.80 │ 75% │

│ long │ -5.35 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A fractured state with an armed state-within-a-state and acute war exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 75% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 90% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A real diplomatic reopening: President Aoun made the first Lebanese presidential White House visit since 2009 on July 21, with Trump pledging support and floating resumed direct US-Lebanon flights for the first time in 40+ years (CFR - independent). Eased -6 -> -5 on the concrete re-engagement; confidence held. The ceasefire's fragility (below) caps further movement.

Conflict Involvement - Worsened -8 -> -9: UNIFIL confirmed it will cease operations and begin gradual withdrawal by Dec 31, 2026, with no replacement force agreed and Israel opposing any new international force (UN Security Council statement, Anadolu/UN, Sept 8; Le Monde, Reuters ground reporting, Sept 16-18). Israel remains in occupied southern Lebanon in violation of the 2024 ceasefire. The security monitoring architecture is collapsing on a hard deadline rather than eroding gradually. Confidence 0.87 -> 0.9.

Sanctions Capital Controls - Informal capital controls (the depositor lockout), US sanctions on the armed movement, and grey-list risk. (Arab News)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.65 │ 75% │

│ mid │ -6.65 │ 75% │

│ long │ -6.65 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Collapsed infrastructure and a degraded health system, with seismic exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Eastern-Med drought/heat, water stress, snowpack decline, with readiness gutted by state collapse and fiscal crisis. (IPCC AR6; ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Once-strong, now degraded and brain-drained, with drug shortages and war-damaged hospitals. (WHO; MSF)

Infrastructure - Collapsed - chronic blackouts and a private-generator economy, water failures, and war damage. (HRW)

Crime Safety - Rising with economic desperation, though not catastrophic. (Freedom House)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible coverage, with seismic-fault exposure. (hazard context)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.01 │ 71% │

│ mid │ -6.11 │ 71% │

│ long │ -6.20 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -5.90 │ 72% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -6.21 │ 73% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -6.40 │ 74% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -6.21 │ -6.05 │ -5.90 │

│ Assets │ -6.33 │ -6.21 │ -6.08 │

│ Currency │ -6.40 │ -6.25 │ -6.09 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘