- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, MCC, WHO/CDC, V-Dem, Freedom House, RSF, TI, HRW) + international press.

- A post-civil-war democracy with two consecutive peaceful turnovers (Boakai defeated Weah, took office Jan 2024) and an in-progress War and Economic Crimes Court (an office and draft bills by 2025, no functioning tribunal yet).

- Standout features: a heavily dollarized, iron-ore-led growth economy (~5% on ArcelorMittal) with contained inflation, against an Ebola-scarred health system, near-absent electrification/roads, deep rural poverty, and persistent corruption. Negative with a modest near-term positive tilt.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

An IMF-programmed, dollarized economy with contained inflation but a narrow commodity base. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - On an IMF ECF (approved Sept 2024; 2nd review Oct 2025) with improving discipline, but a very low revenue base and high aid dependence. (IMF PR 25/325)

Monetary Independence - Heavy dollarization severely weakens monetary transmission; the CBL's policy traction is structurally limited. (IMF; Coface)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The Liberian dollar is not a reserve currency; the economy runs largely on the US dollar as a de-facto medium of exchange (imported stability, not LRD strength). (IMF)

Inflation - Relatively contained and falling, anchored by dollarization - a comparative bright spot. (IMF; World Bank)

Banking Stability - Small and dollarized with limited depth and legacy asset-quality weaknesses. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - A narrow commodity base (iron ore via ArcelorMittal ~89% of output, rubber, gold), price-cycle exposed. (IMF; Coface)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.71 │ 68% │

│ mid │ -1.71 │ 68% │

│ long │ -1.71 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Functioning elections but persistent corruption, impunity, and thin administration. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Persistent corruption and impunity (CPI ~27/100) despite functioning electoral institutions. (TI; Freedom House)

Statistical Integrity - Weak capacity, IMF-engaged on macro data. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Thin and under-resourced, with minimal reach into rural counties. (World Bank)

Press Freedom - Generally pluralistic media, with continued pressure on journalists. (RSF; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.47 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -3.47 │ 59% │

│ long │ -3.47 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Two decades of post-war peace and repeated peaceful turnovers, on a fragile low-capacity base. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 50% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Two decades of post-war peace and a second consecutive peaceful handover (Boakai took office Jan 2024) - stable but on a fragile foundation. (Freedom House; IMF)

Civil Liberties - 'Partly Free' (FH ~64), with real political rights tempered by impunity and violence against women. (Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - No major refugee or migration-treatment crisis; limited data. (inference)

Social Cohesion - A still-raw civil-war legacy - the unresolved war-crimes accountability question both threatens and could heal cohesion. (HRW; JusticeInfo)

Demographics - Young and fast-growing; dividend potential offset by very low human capital and ~81% rural poverty. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.26 │ 62% │

│ mid │ +0.26 │ 62% │

│ long │ +0.26 │ 62% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Historically close US ties, conflict-free since 2003, with peace holding after UNMIL's departure. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Historically close US ties and Western/multilateral alignment; non-belligerent and donor-supported. (Coface; inference)

Conflict Involvement - No armed conflict - the second civil war ended in 2003 and peace has held. (Freedom House; ACLED)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Not broadly sanctioned (some targeted corruption designations); an open, dollarized economy with few controls. (US Treasury OFAC; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.57 │ 65% │

│ mid │ +2.57 │ 65% │

│ long │ +2.57 │ 65% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Among the world's weakest health and infrastructure, Ebola-scarred, with coastal flood risk. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 50% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - ND-GAIN bottom-30 - intense-rainfall flooding, coastal erosion on the Monrovia shore, post-war low readiness. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - Among the world's weakest (~0.84 physicians/1,000), still recovering from the 2014-15 Ebola epidemic that killed >8% of health workers. (WHO; CDC)

Infrastructure - One of the world's lowest electrification rates and only ~20% of roads paved. (MCC; World Bank)

Crime Safety - Elevated urban crime (notably Monrovia) and weak policing, but no organised insurgency. (OSAC)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible insurance penetration. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.09 │ 63% │

│ mid │ -6.19 │ 63% │

│ long │ -6.28 │ 63% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -2.18 │ 62% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -1.71 │ 64% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -1.29 │ 65% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -2.15 │ -2.16 │ -2.18 │

│ Assets │ -1.70 │ -1.71 │ -1.72 │

│ Currency │ -1.29 │ -1.29 │ -1.29 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘