- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-20): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-14 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran war DEEPENED rather than broke pattern - the US naval blockade of Iranian ports held all window, OFAC's wind-down GL X1 EXPIRED July 17 (full Iran oil sanctions restored), the US combat death toll rose to 17 (430+ wounded) after Iran hit Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti air base July 17, and the US ran a ninth consecutive night of strikes (incl. the Darkhovin nuclear-plant site, IAEA reviewing). Iran's retaliation crossed a threshold: it struck Kuwait's power + desalination plant twice (first civilian-infrastructure targeting) and Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields (-140-150k bpd), and on July 20 the Houthis opened a new front with a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia (ending the 2022 truce). Brent ran to ~$88-90; Hormuz war-risk hull premiums held at 3-10% of value. Secondary: the EU FROZE the $44.10 Russia oil cap for one week to July 23 (the prior pass's lapse risk did NOT materialize - held, not scored as relief) with the 21st sanctions package still stalled (a narrow Kyiv-strike mini-package adopted July 17 instead); Russia's MOEX hit a 17-week losing streak (worst since 1997), the deficit overshot plan by ~1T rubles and the ruble slid ~8%/mo to ~78.6; Ukraine's Kerch Strait / Don-Azov shipping halt PERSISTED with no reopening as Russia hit Kyiv with a 41-missile barrage July 19; the Poland-Ukraine White Eagle rift DE-ESCALATED (Zelensky opened SBU archives July 17, Tusk welcomed it); Andy Burnham became UK PM July 20 (7th in a decade but a clean handover, dropped digital ID); Israel's Knesset dissolved on schedule July 17 (Oct 27 elections) after a judicial-oversight/media legislative blitz; China's Q2 GDP printed 4.3% (weakest since 2022); India's rupee broke past its defense band to ~96.4; deadly monsoon flooding hit Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal; Nicaragua's Ortega declared no more elections; Cuba logged its 5th total grid collapse of 2026; Venezuela's quake toll passed 5,200; DRC's Ebola became the fastest-growing month-on-month; Mali's JNIM/FLA reversed the Anefis gain; Morocco released journalist Ali Lmrabet; a M7.4 quake struck the Mexico-Guatemala border. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: rebuilt from independent sources (IMF/World Bank where available, V-Dem, RSF, Freedom House, HRW, Amnesty, ACLED, UN/OHCHR); both rival authorities excluded as governance sources.

- De-facto partitioned since 2014 (a Tripoli-based government in the west vs the Haftar/LNA-aligned east) with rival governments and a contested central bank. Data is fragmentary; figures are estimates.

- Standout drags: a divided militia-ruled petrostate, documented migrant enslavement, periodic warfare, and a resource curse fuelling the conflict. Overall: clearly negative.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

Oil-revenue-rich but contested and looted between factions, with a contested central bank. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 50% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 45% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 45% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 55% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Oil-revenue-rich but with no unified budget; spending split and looted between factions. (IMF Art IV 2025; World Bank)

Monetary Independence - A nominally-reunified but still faction-contested central bank, a 2025 devaluation, and eastern off-books printing. (IMF; WPR)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The dinar has no international role. (definitional)

Inflation - Moderate but rising post-devaluation, with contested data. (IMF)

Banking Stability - A split, cash-based, embargo-exposed, fragile system. (IMF; World Bank)

Trade Actions Capacity - A ~95% oil-export rentier repeatedly halted by blockades and faction fights - a resource curse fuelling the war. (World Bank; CRS)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.36 │ 52% │

│ mid │ -4.36 │ 52% │

│ long │ -4.36 │ 52% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

No unified state, militia rule, collapsed data, and a poor press environment. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 65% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 40% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 45% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 70% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - No unified state, militia rule, and no judicial independence - a closed-autocracy environment. (V-Dem 2025; Freedom House; HRW)

Statistical Integrity - Collapsed and contested across dual institutions - external estimates only. (IMF caveats)

Civil Service Capacity - Split and militia-captured, with parallel administrations. (World Bank; ICG)

Press Freedom - A poor RSF standing, with militias targeting journalists. (RSF 2025; CPJ)

Civil-Military Relations - No effective state monopoly on the use of force. Armed factions, militias, or rival command structures operate outside any single chain of command. Civilian control is absent here as a category.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.97 │ 52% │

│ mid │ -6.97 │ 52% │

│ long │ -6.97 │ 52% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Rival governments and periodic warfare, with documented migrant enslavement. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 55% │ -7.0 │ -6.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 70% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 50% │ -2.0 │ -1.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Improved near -8 -> -7: rival Libyan camps signed a UN-backed '4+4' roadmap in Tripoli on Sept 1 for elections within 24 months, with candidacy-rule changes admitting dual citizens and military officers (Al Jazeera, corroborated by AP and others). Booked as one cautious step: analysts quoted in the same reporting doubt power-holders will relinquish control without force, and the rule changes appear tailored to specific figures. A drone attack on a Tripoli fuel depot on Sept 3 caused damage described as minor by the state oil company, whose own assessment is not independently verified. Long held -5.

Civil Liberties - Militia-restricted, with arbitrary detention. (HRW; Amnesty)

Treatment Non Citizens - Documented migrant enslavement, torture, and detention - among the worst. (UN/OHCHR; US TIP)

Social Cohesion - Fragmented along east-west, regional, and tribal lines. (ICG)

Demographics - Young with high oil-wealth-per-capita, but war-disrupted jobs. (UN; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.93 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -6.56 │ 58% │

│ long │ -6.18 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A fragmented proxy battleground with foreign-mercenary presence. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 50% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -6.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A fragmented proxy arena - the east Russia/Egypt/UAE-backed, the west Turkey-backed. (CSIS; Atlantic Council)

Conflict Involvement - Held at near -7 with confidence up 0.55 -> 0.6: the crisis turned kinetic between GNU-aligned formations - early-August Sorman/Zawiya clashes between the Anti-Security Threats Apparatus and the 103rd Battalion, calmed by 52nd Brigade deployment, with Dbeibah-aligned reinforcement of eastern Tripoli reported Aug 13 (Saudi-owned aawsat, exact date soft - flagged) - a new intra-GNU escalation vector driven by the blackout/oil crisis. Long held -6.

Sanctions Capital Controls - A UN arms embargo, frozen-asset legacy, and contested oil revenue. (UNSC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.11 │ 56% │

│ mid │ -5.92 │ 56% │

│ long │ -5.73 │ 56% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Desert heat and a catastrophic 2023 flood, atop war-damaged infrastructure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 62% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 40% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Extreme aridity/heat plus Derna-2023-style flash-flood risk, with conflict-collapsed adaptive governance despite oil. (ND-GAIN; Germanwatch CRI)

Healthcare - War-degraded and uneven. (WHO; press)

Infrastructure - Worsened -7 -> -8: protesters storming the Mellitah complex halted El Feel output, choking gas to the plants generating ~70% of electricity, with the NOC warning of credible NATIONWIDE grid-collapse risk amid 6-10 hour daily blackouts (Middle East Eye, Aug 6); drone strikes destroyed a Zawiya substation. The blackout crisis is now degrading the energy system that funds and powers everything else.

Crime Safety - Militia rule, kidnapping, and lawlessness. (ACLED)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible penetration against high hazard. (general)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.96 │ 55% │

│ mid │ -6.07 │ 55% │

│ long │ -6.18 │ 55% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -6.16 │ 54% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -5.64 │ 54% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -5.28 │ 53% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -6.38 │ -6.27 │ -6.16 │

│ Assets │ -5.70 │ -5.64 │ -5.59 │

│ Currency │ -5.28 │ -5.23 │ -5.18 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘