- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, ECCB, Freedom House, RSF, TI, InSight Crime) + international and regional press.

- The region's strongest human-development/governance profile (Freedom House 91/100; CPI 59) on the East Caribbean dollar (XCD, pegged 2.70/USD via the ECCB union), with three consecutive primary surpluses.

- Standout features: best-in-cohort institutions and political stability, against high debt (~77%), softening tourism and rising unemployment, hurricane exposure, and notably high homicide (a record 77 murders in 2024).

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

Peg-anchored low inflation and primary surpluses, against high debt and softening tourism. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ +0.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Three consecutive primary surpluses and improving finances, but debt is high and projected to stabilize ~77% of GDP. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - An ECCB currency-union member; the XCD is pegged 2.70/USD - no national policy, strong union backing. (ECCB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The XCD is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and anchored by the ECCB peg; union-wide price stability. (ECCB; IMF)

Banking Stability - ECCB-backstopped (97% reserve backing union-wide); non-bank supervision being strengthened via a new regulator. (ECCB; IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - A small, import-reliant, tourism-dominant (banana-legacy) economy with minimal leverage; growth decelerating to ~1.7% (2025) on weaker tourism. (IMF 2025)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.16 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +0.26 │ 74% │

│ long │ +0.37 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

The strongest institutions of the OECS cohort, with corruption/transparency caveats. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 60% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - The strongest of the cohort - CPI 59 (improved +7 from 2023) and Freedom House 'Free', though corruption/transparency and police-impunity concerns persist. (TI; Freedom House 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Engages credibly with the IMF; small-state data limitations warrant moderate confidence. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - A comparatively capable administration (expanded UHC, minimum wage, pensions) but small and stretched. (IMF 2025)

Press Freedom - Press freedom largely upheld and pluralistic; criminal-libel laws remain on the books but civil suits are more common. (Freedom House; RSF)

Civil-Military Relations - No standing armed forces. The factor reduces here to the politicization of the police or gendarmerie. It is scored positive by default. Confidence is held low, as the usual evidence base does not apply.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.99 │ 58% │

│ mid │ +1.99 │ 58% │

│ long │ +1.99 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

The cohort's highest political-rights score, against rising violent crime and youth unemployment. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 40% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 50% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Stable under PM Pierre (SLP) with regular peaceful elections and the highest political-rights score in the cohort (38/40). (Freedom House 2025)

Civil Liberties - Strongly respected (53/60), with LGBT+ discrimination and criminal-libel caveats. (Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - Generally tolerant within OECS free-movement norms, with limited independent reporting. (lower confidence)

Social Cohesion - Broadly cohesive, but rising violent crime and high youth unemployment are social-strain signals. (IMF; InSight Crime)

Demographics - Small (~180k), aging-skewed, with high youth unemployment limiting the demographic dividend. (IMF 2025)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.0 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +3.0 │ 60% │

│ long │ +3.0 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Western/CARICOM/OECS-aligned and conflict-free, with modest CIP/EU exposure. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 50% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Western/Commonwealth/CARICOM/OECS-aligned with a stable posture, engaged with the US while regionally balancing China. (observed)

Conflict Involvement - No conflicts or territorial disputes. (observed)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Not sanctioned; it runs a CIP also covered by the looming EU visa-waiver regulation, a modest external risk. (EU; Astons)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.99 │ 59% │

│ mid │ +1.99 │ 59% │

│ long │ +1.99 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Expanding UHC and reasonable infrastructure, against high hurricane exposure and record homicide. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -7.50 │ -8.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - A mountainous SIDS in the hurricane corridor (Beryl 2024) plus reef/coast loss, high CRI exposure. (Germanwatch CRI)

Healthcare - An expanding Universal Health Care program is a relative positive, but tertiary capacity is limited. (IMF 2025)

Infrastructure - Reasonable tourism infrastructure with active construction, but disaster-rebuild and capacity gaps recur. (IMF 2025)

Crime Safety - A record 77 homicides in 2024 (~38.9/100k, among the region's most violent), easing to ~70 in 2025 - a material safety and tourism risk. (InSight Crime)

Disaster Insurance - A CCRIF parametric member, but with a significant protection gap vs catastrophic exposure. (CCRIF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.33 │ 63% │

│ mid │ -3.46 │ 63% │

│ long │ -3.59 │ 63% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +1.14 │ 62% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.77 │ 65% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +0.84 │ 68% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +1.14 │ +1.14 │ +1.14 │

│ Assets │ +0.74 │ +0.77 │ +0.81 │

│ Currency │ +0.84 │ +0.90 │ +0.97 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘