- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF Art IV, S&P, Freedom House, RSF, EEA/EFTA, Council of Europe) + international/European press.

- A wealthy constitutional monarchy with AAA-equivalent fiscal strength (near-zero public debt) - uniquely an EEA member while Switzerland is not, in a Swiss-franc customs/monetary union.

- Standout features: exceptional balance sheet, EEA + Swiss market access, a safe-haven CHF, top-tier safety and press freedom, against an unusually powerful monarch (a democratic-quality caveat) and SNB-imported monetary policy.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

An exceptional balance sheet and diversified high-value base; CHF-anchored, no monetary autonomy. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 85% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - AAA (S&P), virtually zero public debt, and financial assets ~100% of GDP - exceptional fiscal strength. (IMF Art IV 2025; S&P)

Monetary Independence - A Swiss-franc customs/monetary union - imports SNB policy, no own monetary policy. (IMF; SNB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Uses the Swiss franc (a premier safe-haven currency) but issues none of it. (IMF; SNB)

Inflation - Very low, expected below ~1% over the medium term (the CHF anchor). (IMF Art IV 2025)

Banking Stability - A sound, well-capitalized financial center (~20% of GDP), private-banking/wealth-focused with robust supervision. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Trade Actions Capacity - High-value manufacturing (Hilti etc.) plus financial services, with EEA single-market access and a Swiss union - strong and diversified for its size. (IMF; EEA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.20 │ 83% │

│ mid │ +3.20 │ 83% │

│ long │ +3.20 │ 83% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong rule of law, credible stats, and a free press, with a princely-power democratic caveat. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 75% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Strong rule of law - FH 90/100, human rights generally respected. (Freedom House 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Credible official statistics, IMF-engaged and EEA-aligned. (IMF Art IV)

Civil Service Capacity - An efficient, well-resourced administration managing EEA obligations. (IMF; EEA)

Press Freedom - RSF #7 globally (2025) - among the world's freest and independent, with a tiny media market. (RSF 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - No standing armed forces. The factor reduces here to the politicization of the police or gendarmerie. It is scored positive by default. Confidence is held low, as the usual evidence base does not apply.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +6.26 │ 69% │

│ mid │ +6.26 │ 69% │

│ long │ +6.26 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Very stable and prosperous, with the Prince's unusually strong powers a democratic caveat. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Very stable - the Feb 2025 election produced a renewed VU-FBP coalition under the first female PM (April 2025); the Prince's veto (incl. over plebiscites) and dismissal powers, confirmed by the contested 2003 referendum, are a democratic-quality caveat. (2025 results; Council of Europe)

Civil Liberties - Generally respected (FH civil liberties 57/60). (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - A large foreign-resident/cross-border workforce generally well treated, with restrictive naturalization. (FH 2025)

Social Cohesion - A cohesive, prosperous society with mild immigration/cross-border tensions. (FH)

Demographics - Small (~40k) and aging, with cross-border commuters sustaining the labour force. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.21 │ 72% │

│ mid │ +5.21 │ 72% │

│ long │ +5.21 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

EEA + Swiss-anchored, conflict-free, with a safe-haven currency setting. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 65% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Not in NATO/EU, but uniquely an EEA member plus a Swiss customs/monetary union (a UN/Council of Europe/EFTA member). (EEA; EFTA)

Conflict Involvement - No conflict exposure and no standing army. (observed)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open capital account, EEA/Swiss-aligned, with a reformed AML/transparency regime and a safe-haven CHF setting. (IMF; EEA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +6.22 │ 73% │

│ mid │ +6.22 │ 73% │

│ long │ +6.22 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Excellent Swiss-integrated services and very low crime, with low hazard exposure. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ -0.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 80% │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - An Alpine micro-state - very high adaptive capacity but glacier/snow and Rhine-flood exposure. (IPCC AR6 mountains; EEA)

Healthcare - Excellent and well-funded, integrated with Swiss/Austrian systems for complex care. (general)

Infrastructure - Excellent and Swiss-integrated, though landlocked. (general)

Crime Safety - Very low crime - among the safest. (general; FH)

Disaster Insurance - A developed Swiss-integrated insurance market with low catastrophe exposure. (general)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.81 │ 67% │

│ mid │ +5.72 │ 67% │

│ long │ +5.64 │ 67% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +5.33 │ 72% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +4.76 │ 75% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +4.26 │ 78% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +5.35 │ +5.34 │ +5.33 │

│ Assets │ +4.77 │ +4.76 │ +4.75 │

│ Currency │ +4.26 │ +4.26 │ +4.26 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘