- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV/EFF, World Bank, ADB, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem) + Sri Lankan official (Census/Stats, Central Bank of Sri Lanka) + Sri Lankan independent press (Daily Mirror, Daily FT, Groundviews).

- A post-default recovery and democratic reset: a 2022 sovereign default and mass uprising, followed by a 2024 election that brought a reform/anti-corruption government to power with a parliamentary supermajority.

- Standout features: a major monetary/inflation stabilisation and a democratic reset, against a high-debt and demographic-decline overhang and severe climate exposure. Source-lean: HIGH Anglophone; Sinhala/Tamil sources under-read.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A deep-hole recovery with a major monetary/inflation stabilisation, against a high-debt overhang. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Defaulted in 2022 but with the IMF program advancing and debt restructuring near-complete, a primary surplus returning, though debt remains high. (IMF)

Monetary Independence - The central bank gained legal independence via a 2023 act, with a credible disinflation framework - a genuine reform win. (CBSL)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Not a reserve issuer. (definitional)

Inflation - Collapsed from a ~70% crisis peak to near target - a major stabilisation success. (CBSL)

Banking Stability - Recapitalising post-crisis with recovering private credit and legacy NPLs. (ADB; IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Tea, apparel, tourism, and remittances with rebuilt reserves and a tourism rebound, against US-tariff and China-debt exposure; no resource curse. (ADB; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.88 │ 73% │

│ mid │ +1.33 │ 73% │

│ long │ +1.78 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An improving, reform-mandated trajectory from a weak base. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -0.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A weak corruption legacy, with a 2024-mandated anti-corruption drive criticised as incremental. (WJP; ICG)

Statistical Integrity - Usable and improving in transparency under the IMF program. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Weak but slowly digitalising and reforming. (East Asia Forum)

Press Freedom - Improved post-2022, with an Online Safety Act chill persisting. (RSF; HRW)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.76 │ 65% │

│ mid │ -0.27 │ 65% │

│ long │ +0.23 │ 65% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A genuine democratic reset, against unresolved reconciliation and a demographic drag. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 85% │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A 2022 mass uprising, followed by a 2024 election that brought a reform/anti-corruption government to power with a parliamentary supermajority - a genuine democratic reset, relatively stable now. (ICG; Diplomat)

Civil Liberties - Improving, though anti-terror-law use actually rose in 2025. (HRW; OHCHR)

Treatment Non Citizens - Limited routes and tourism-visa-friendly; not a relocation destination. (observed)

Social Cohesion - No active conflict, but Tamil reconciliation and devolution remain stalled amid crisis hardship. (HRW; OHCHR)

Demographics - An ageing population after a fertility collapse, with heavy skilled emigration - a structural long-term drag. (Census; UNFPA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.46 │ 67% │

│ mid │ +0.35 │ 67% │

│ long │ +0.23 │ 67% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A non-aligned India-China balancer with no active conflict. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Non-aligned, pragmatically balancing India and China. (ICG)

Conflict Involvement - No active conflict since the 2009 civil-war end. (HRW)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Crisis-era controls easing under the IMF program; unsanctioned. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.71 │ 72% │

│ mid │ +1.71 │ 72% │

│ long │ +1.71 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A historically strong health system, against severe climate exposure and thin catastrophe cover. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 78% │ -4.0 │ -4.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Island monsoon variability, flood/drought/landslide, coastal/sea-level exposure, with readiness strained by fiscal crisis. (ND-GAIN; IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - A historically strong universal system, crisis-strained but recovering. (ADB; UNFPA)

Infrastructure - Decent, with power cuts eased, against China-debt white-elephant risk and disaster fragility. (Mongabay)

Crime Safety - Relatively low violent crime - a strength. (comparative)

Disaster Insurance - Very low penetration against flood/cyclone/tsunami exposure. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.63 │ 68% │

│ mid │ -0.74 │ 68% │

│ long │ -0.85 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.40 │ 68% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.72 │ 70% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +0.68 │ 71% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +0.02 │ +0.21 │ +0.40 │

│ Assets │ +0.43 │ +0.72 │ +1.0 │

│ Currency │ +0.68 │ +1.05 │ +1.41 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘