- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV, EC, OECD, WJP, RSF, TI) + Lithuanian official (Statistics Lithuania, Bank of Lithuania) + Lithuanian independent press (LRT).

- A strong-institution, low-debt EU/eurozone NATO frontline state; the dominant tail is frontline exposure to the Russia-Ukraine war.

- Standout features: strong institutions, a fintech/high-tech niche economy, top-tier defence commitment, against a real Russia-border war tail and demographic decline. Source-lean: MODERATE Anglophone on security framing.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

Low debt and high-value export niches, against a defense-driven rising deficit. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +1.0 │ -0.50 │ -2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +2.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Low debt (~40% GDP) but on a clear upward path toward ~55% by 2030 as defence rises above 5% of GDP; a ~1.8% deficit and expansionary. (IMF 2026 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - Eurozone - the ECB is credible, with no national control. (ECB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The euro, the world's second reserve currency. (IMF COFER)

Inflation - Eased but re-firming ~4.4% on energy/wages, moderating ahead. (EC; Bank of Lithuania)

Banking Stability - Sound and Nordic-owned, with the EU's top licensed-fintech hub under central-bank supervision. (IMF; Bank of Lithuania)

Trade Actions Capacity - Strong export growth and high-value niches (lasers, biotech, fintech), EU-integrated; the lost Russia/Belarus market re-oriented. (OECD; EC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.54 │ 81% │

│ mid │ +2.34 │ 81% │

│ long │ +2.14 │ 81% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong, EU-standard institutions across the board. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A high WJP standing with EU-standard judicial independence. (WJP 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Statistics Lithuania is credible and uncompromised. (EC; WJP)

Civil Service Capacity - Capable and highly digital, with an improving corruption standing. (TI 2025)

Press Freedom - Free (RSF ~14th) - a clear strength, with contested public-broadcaster-law amendments a watch. (RSF 2025; LRT)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, backed by tested parliamentary oversight and a long unbroken record of apolitical command.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +6.33 │ 81% │

│ mid │ +6.33 │ 81% │

│ long │ +6.33 │ 81% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable democracy with a strong security consensus, against demographic decline. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 85% │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A stable EU democracy with orderly transfers and a strong anti-Russia consensus, tempered by a 2025 corruption-resignation and a fragile coalition. (LRT; OSW)

Civil Liberties - Strong, with minor friction over expression-related bills. (WJP; RSF)

Treatment Non Citizens - An EU lawful framework with foreign residents up sharply, against Belarus-engineered border-migration pressure. (Statistics Lithuania; EC)

Social Cohesion - Cohesive, with a strong national/security consensus. (V-Dem; LRT)

Demographics - Very low fertility (~1.11) and heavy ageing, with an emigration legacy only recently stabilised by return migration. (Statistics Lithuania)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.74 │ 76% │

│ mid │ +2.63 │ 76% │

│ long │ +2.52 │ 76% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Top-tier alliance value, squarely offset by frontline war exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A NATO/EU frontline stalwart and the alliance's top defence spender (~5.4% of GDP), hosting a permanent German brigade and hardline on Russia/China. (NATO)

Conflict Involvement - Frontline to the Russia-Ukraine war - Kaliningrad/Suwalki-gap exposure, the Belarus border, and repeated drone incursions - a real elevated tail. (LRT; Washington Post)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An EU regime with an open capital account. (EC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.79 │ 83% │

│ mid │ +1.79 │ 83% │

│ long │ +1.79 │ 83% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Good infrastructure and energy independence, against medic emigration. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +3.50 │ +3.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 72% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 75% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - A Baltic high-latitude beneficiary near/mid-term (warming-driven agricultural/season upside, good readiness), with the gain easing long-term (AMOC/Baltic tail). (ND-GAIN; Burke et al.)

Healthcare - Universal and decent, with medic emigration and ageing strain. (OECD)

Infrastructure - Good and EU-funded, energy-independent from Russia, with the Baltic grid synced to continental Europe in 2025. (EC; Bank of Lithuania)

Crime Safety - Low-to-moderate - a relative strength. (Statistics Lithuania)

Disaster Insurance - Moderate exposure, insurable. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.30 │ 73% │

│ mid │ +4.20 │ 73% │

│ long │ +4.10 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +4.02 │ 79% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +3.46 │ 80% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +3.19 │ 81% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +4.17 │ +4.09 │ +4.02 │

│ Assets │ +3.56 │ +3.46 │ +3.36 │

│ Currency │ +3.19 │ +3.06 │ +2.94 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘