- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV 2026, EC, OECD, Eurostat, WJP, RSF, TI, DBRS) + Luxembourg official (STATEC) + press.

- A tiny, ultra-wealthy, AAA-rated eurozone financial-hub state with strong institutions; a vast non-bank fund sector is the main systemic-exposure flag.

- Standout features: AAA fiscal strength, top-tier institutions, and an open EU-core role, against finance-sector concentration, housing-cost strain, and a residual tax-secrecy reputation. Source-lean: LOW-MODERATE Anglophone.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

AAA fiscal strength and a high-value-added economy, with finance-sector concentration the systemic risk. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - AAA-rated with very low debt (~26% GDP), though a 2024 surplus flipped to a ~2% deficit and debt is not yet stabilising. (IMF Art IV 2026; DBRS)

Monetary Independence - Pooled at the ECB - credible but not sovereign. (ECB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - A euro participant in the world's second reserve currency. (IMF COFER)

Inflation - Tracking the eurozone (~2.2% easing toward ~1.5%). (STATEC; EC)

Banking Stability - Sound and well-capitalised, but with a vast non-bank/investment-fund sector posing liquidity-mismatch/leverage interlinkages. (IMF FSAP 2024)

Trade Actions Capacity - A world-leading fund domicile plus steel and space/satellite - high value-added but finance-concentrated. (OECD; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.26 │ 83% │

│ mid │ +4.26 │ 83% │

│ long │ +4.26 │ 83% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Top-tier institutions, with lobbying/conflict-of-interest a TI-flagged blind spot. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 90% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Among the world's strongest (a WJP top-10 standing). (WJP 2025)

Statistical Integrity - STATEC is credible and ESS-compliant. (Eurostat)

Civil Service Capacity - High administrative quality, an EU-institution host. (OECD; EC)

Press Freedom - Free (RSF ~9th), with small-market concentration and a TI-flagged lobbying blind spot. (RSF; TI 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, backed by tested parliamentary oversight and a long unbroken record of apolitical command.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +7.88 │ 85% │

│ mid │ +7.88 │ 85% │

│ long │ +7.88 │ 85% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A very stable democracy, very open to foreign nationals, with housing-cost strain the caveat. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A 'full democracy' with an orderly 2023 handover. (Economist; Freedom House)

Civil Liberties - Strong. (Freedom House; V-Dem)

Treatment Non Citizens - ~47% of residents are foreign nationals - a very open EU labour hub, though housing costs push some out. (STATEC; OECD)

Social Cohesion - Cohesive at very high incomes, with acute housing-affordability strain. (STATEC)

Demographics - Immigration-fuelled growth (slowing), with low native fertility. (STATEC; Eurostat)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.70 │ 81% │

│ mid │ +5.70 │ 81% │

│ long │ +5.70 │ 81% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A reliable NATO/EU founder and institution host with an open account. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A NATO and EU founding member and EU-institution host, with defence rising fast. (NATO; STATEC)

Conflict Involvement - No conflict. (EC)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An EU regime with an open capital account; a mild residual tax-secrecy reputational legacy. (EC; TI)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +6.49 │ 83% │

│ mid │ +6.49 │ 83% │

│ long │ +6.49 │ 83% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Excellent healthcare, infrastructure, and safety, with low catastrophe exposure. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +0.50 │ 0.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Wealthy, top-readiness temperate, with modest heat and Moselle/river-flood exposure; an AMOC tail caveat. (ND-GAIN; EEA)

Healthcare - Universal and well-funded. (OECD; WHO)

Infrastructure - Excellent. (OECD; WEF)

Crime Safety - Low crime - a strength. (Eurostat)

Disaster Insurance - A developed market with low catastrophe exposure. (Munich Re)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +6.30 │ 77% │

│ mid │ +6.22 │ 77% │

│ long │ +6.13 │ 77% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +6.37 │ 82% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +5.85 │ 83% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +5.40 │ 83% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +6.40 │ +6.39 │ +6.37 │

│ Assets │ +5.86 │ +5.85 │ +5.84 │

│ Currency │ +5.40 │ +5.40 │ +5.40 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘