- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV, EC, Eurostat, OECD, WJP, RSF, TI, MONEYVAL) + Latvian official (CSB, Bank of Latvia, MFA/PMLP) + Latvian independent press (LSM).

- A solid-institution EU/eurozone NATO frontline state; the dominant tails are a Russia-border war/hybrid risk and a severe demographic decline.

- Standout features: low debt, EU-standard institutions, top-tier alliance value, against a Russia-border war tail, a Russian-minority cleavage, and steep depopulation. Source-lean: MODERATE Anglophone on security framing.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

Low debt and a cleaned-up banking sector, against a defense-driven rising deficit and lost Russia transit. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Low debt (~47% GDP) but a deficit rising toward ~3.3% on 5%-of-GDP defence; the IMF flags eroding space. (EC forecast; IMF Art IV 2025)

Monetary Independence - Pooled at the ECB, eurozone. (ECB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Holds the euro. (IMF COFER)

Inflation - Eased to ~2.3% with a small 2026 energy-driven uptick. (Eurostat; Bank of Latvia)

Banking Stability - Sound, with the prior money-laundering legacy largely resolved and a strong recent MONEYVAL evaluation. (MONEYVAL; LSM)

Trade Actions Capacity - Timber/transit/services plus manufacturing, EU-integrated; the lost Russia transit/trade re-orienting to the EU/Nordics. (CSB; LSM)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.83 │ 85% │

│ mid │ +3.83 │ 85% │

│ long │ +3.83 │ 85% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong, EU-standard institutions, with the AML legacy a watch. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Strong and EU-standard, with EC-flagged procurement-corruption risk and an AML watch. (EC Rule of Law 2025; WJP)

Statistical Integrity - CSB is credible and Eurostat-aligned. (CSB; Eurostat)

Civil Service Capacity - Capable and EU-fund-absorbing, with small-state capacity limits. (EC)

Press Freedom - Free (RSF ~15th), with a Russian-speaker info-access caveat. (RSF 2025; LSM)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, backed by tested parliamentary oversight and a long unbroken record of apolitical command.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +6.38 │ 79% │

│ mid │ +6.38 │ 79% │

│ long │ +6.38 │ 79% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable democracy with strong liberties, against a Russian-minority cleavage and steep depopulation. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 75% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 90% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A stable EU democracy, orderly, with a strong anti-Russia consensus. (EC; V-Dem)

Civil Liberties - Strong and EU-standard. (EC Rule of Law; V-Dem)

Treatment Non Citizens - EU norms, but with a large legacy 'non-citizen' population and tightened 2022-25 residency/language rules pushing out Russian nationals. (PMLP; RFE/RL)

Social Cohesion - A real Russian-minority cleavage, with integration/language gaps and info-space vulnerability. (EC; State Security Service)

Demographics - Among the EU's steepest declines - heavy emigration, low fertility (~1.36), and deep ageing. (CSB; Eurostat)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.51 │ 79% │

│ mid │ +1.51 │ 79% │

│ long │ +1.51 │ 79% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Top-tier alliance value, squarely offset by a Russia-border war/hybrid tail. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A NATO/EU frontline stalwart and top-tier defence spender (toward 5% of GDP), hardline on Russia. (NATO; LSM)

Conflict Involvement - Frontline to the Russia-Ukraine war with a ~400km Russia/Belarus border, Baltic drone incidents, and undersea-cable sabotage - a real elevated tail. (Euronews; Atlantic Council)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An EU regime with an open capital account. (EC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.24 │ 82% │

│ mid │ +2.24 │ 82% │

│ long │ +2.24 │ 82% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Decent infrastructure and energy security, against an underfunded health system. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +3.50 │ +3.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - A Baltic high-latitude winner near/mid-term (longer growing season, milder winters, strong readiness), with the gain easing long-term (AMOC/coastal tail). (ND-GAIN; Burke et al.)

Healthcare - Universal but underfunded (the Baltics' weaker), with unmet need and medic shortages. (OECD Health at a Glance 2025)

Infrastructure - Decent and EU-funded, with the Feb-2025 Baltic grid desync from Russia an energy-security gain (a sabotage-target risk). (Atlantic Council; ECFR)

Crime Safety - Low-to-moderate; the hybrid/border dimension is scored separately. (general)

Disaster Insurance - Moderate, with low catastrophe exposure. (general)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.61 │ 72% │

│ mid │ +1.51 │ 72% │

│ long │ +1.41 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +3.62 │ 79% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +3.78 │ 81% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +3.97 │ 83% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +3.64 │ +3.63 │ +3.62 │

│ Assets │ +3.79 │ +3.78 │ +3.77 │

│ Currency │ +3.97 │ +3.97 │ +3.97 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘