- Live-data refresh (2026-07-20): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-14 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran war DEEPENED rather than broke pattern - the US naval blockade of Iranian ports held all window, OFAC's wind-down GL X1 EXPIRED July 17 (full Iran oil sanctions restored), the US combat death toll rose to 17 (430+ wounded) after Iran hit Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti air base July 17, and the US ran a ninth consecutive night of strikes (incl. the Darkhovin nuclear-plant site, IAEA reviewing). Iran's retaliation crossed a threshold: it struck Kuwait's power + desalination plant twice (first civilian-infrastructure targeting) and Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields (-140-150k bpd), and on July 20 the Houthis opened a new front with a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia (ending the 2022 truce). Brent ran to ~$88-90; Hormuz war-risk hull premiums held at 3-10% of value. Secondary: the EU FROZE the $44.10 Russia oil cap for one week to July 23 (the prior pass's lapse risk did NOT materialize - held, not scored as relief) with the 21st sanctions package still stalled (a narrow Kyiv-strike mini-package adopted July 17 instead); Russia's MOEX hit a 17-week losing streak (worst since 1997), the deficit overshot plan by ~1T rubles and the ruble slid ~8%/mo to ~78.6; Ukraine's Kerch Strait / Don-Azov shipping halt PERSISTED with no reopening as Russia hit Kyiv with a 41-missile barrage July 19; the Poland-Ukraine White Eagle rift DE-ESCALATED (Zelensky opened SBU archives July 17, Tusk welcomed it); Andy Burnham became UK PM July 20 (7th in a decade but a clean handover, dropped digital ID); Israel's Knesset dissolved on schedule July 17 (Oct 27 elections) after a judicial-oversight/media legislative blitz; China's Q2 GDP printed 4.3% (weakest since 2022); India's rupee broke past its defense band to ~96.4; deadly monsoon flooding hit Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal; Nicaragua's Ortega declared no more elections; Cuba logged its 5th total grid collapse of 2026; Venezuela's quake toll passed 5,200; DRC's Ebola became the fastest-growing month-on-month; Mali's JNIM/FLA reversed the Anefis gain; Morocco released journalist Ali Lmrabet; a M7.4 quake struck the Mexico-Guatemala border. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV 2025/2026, World Bank, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem) + Moroccan official (HCP, Bank Al-Maghrib) + independent/French-language press, weighting external monitors over state messaging on rights given documented media pressure.

- A stable monarchy where the king holds real power; the dirham runs a managed peg-basket. Rights/press scores lean on RSF/HRW/Amnesty rather than state framing.

- Standout features: genuine economic diversification (autos, aerospace, phosphates, solar), strong infrastructure, and Western alignment, against constrained rights/press, structural water/seismic risk, and an unresolved territorial dispute. Source-lean: MODERATE-HIGH Anglophone.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

Genuine industrial diversification, a credible managed-peg central bank, and low inflation. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Moderate debt ~70% GDP with a narrowing deficit, against a large World-Cup-2030 and post-quake investment surge. (IMF Art IV 2025/2026)

Monetary Independence - A managed peg-basket with a gradual move toward inflation targeting; the central bank is credible. (Bank Al-Maghrib)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The dirham is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and well-anchored (~1%). (Bank Al-Maghrib)

Banking Stability - Resilient and well-capitalised with pan-African expansion, with NPL/concentration flags. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Genuine diversification - autos (a major export hub), aerospace, phosphates (vast reserves), solar, and tourism - with a mild phosphate-concentration note. (Automotive Logistics; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.34 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +3.34 │ 75% │

│ long │ +3.34 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Credible statistics and reform delivery, against a king-dominated rule of law and constrained press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 50% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A king-dominated system with partial judicial independence and corruption. (WJP; TI)

Statistical Integrity - The planning agency is credible and IMF-engaged. (HCP)

Civil Service Capacity - Technocratic pockets with ambitious reform delivery, uneven locally. (World Bank)

Press Freedom - Franco-Moroccan journalist Ali Lmrabet, arrested July 12 at Tangier airport, was RELEASED July 15 following pressure from RSF and CPJ, though the underlying defamation-adjacent investigation remains open (CPJ, IFJ - independent press-freedom NGOs; Al Jazeera - tilt). The acute detention that drove the prior pass's -5 is resolved; the net trajectory stays negative (open case, 20+ years of harassment) but the score returns to -4, deliberately kept above the -6 opaque band since independent and foreign reporting on Morocco still flows: eased -5 -> -4; confidence held.

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an instrument of a ruling family. Command appointments follow the succession line. No independent oversight body exists.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.51 │ 69% │

│ mid │ -0.51 │ 69% │

│ long │ -0.51 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable but not fully democratic monarchy, with constrained liberties and a favourable youth window. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +2.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A stable monarchy where the king holds real power and parliament is limited - durable but not a full democracy. (EIU; V-Dem)

Civil Liberties - Red lines on the monarchy, Islam, and Western Sahara, though more open than regional peers. (Amnesty; RSF)

Treatment Non Citizens - A transit/destination for sub-Saharan migration with regularisation waves but documented raids and no easy citizenship. (HRW; MPI)

Social Cohesion - Relatively cohesive, offset by inequality and rural-urban and Amazigh grievances. (observed)

Demographics - A favourable youth window now, with fertility falling and ageing ahead. (HCP census 2024)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.22 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +0.13 │ 74% │

│ long │ +0.03 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable, Western-aligned partner, against the unresolved Western Sahara dispute. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A stable US/EU/Gulf partner, normalised with Israel, with rising Western backing on Western Sahara. (Atlantic Council)

Conflict Involvement - The unresolved Western Sahara dispute and severed Algeria ties, low-intensity. (UN; Al Jazeera)

Sanctions Capital Controls - A managed, partly-open capital account; unsanctioned. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.55 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +1.55 │ 75% │

│ long │ +1.55 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong infrastructure and a health-coverage expansion, against structural water scarcity and a seismic tail. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 72% │ -4.0 │ -4.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 75% │ 0.0 │ +1.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Severe multi-year drought, water stress, and heat, but among Africa's stronger readiness/adaptation programs. (ND-GAIN; WB MENA)

Healthcare - A major universal-health reform expanding coverage, with uneven quality and access. (HCP; reform docs)

Infrastructure - A relative strength - a major port, high-speed rail, roads, and a World-Cup build. (Tanger Med)

Crime Safety - Generally safe, with moderate petty crime. (observed)

Disaster Insurance - A catastrophe-insurance scheme paid out post-quake via sovereign reinsurance; seismic/flood exposure remains. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.67 │ 73% │

│ mid │ +0.88 │ 73% │

│ long │ +1.09 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.61 │ 72% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +1.59 │ 73% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +2.19 │ 74% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +0.60 │ +0.60 │ +0.61 │

│ Assets │ +1.58 │ +1.59 │ +1.60 │

│ Currency │ +2.19 │ +2.19 │ +2.18 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘