- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, FATF/MONEYVAL, Freedom House, IMSEE) + international/European press.

- An ultra-high-income constitutional monarchy (Prince Albert II) and no-income-tax finance/real-estate/tourism centre on the euro, with one of the world's strongest public balance sheets - but still on the FATF grey list (added June 2024, exit targeted mid-2026, not yet removed).

- Standout features: exceptional fiscal strength, top-tier safety, and modern infrastructure, against an in-progress FATF grey-list exit, extreme wealth-cycle dependence, and a constrained political franchise.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

An exceptional balance sheet on a narrow, wealth-cycle-dependent base; euro-using, no monetary autonomy. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 65% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Zero public debt, a ~EUR193m surplus (2024), and a ~EUR7bn Constitutional Reserve Fund - an exceptional balance sheet, but with a cyclical revenue base. (IMSEE; Monaco budget)

Monetary Independence - Uses the euro under an EU monetary agreement - no own monetary policy. (EU monetary agreement)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Uses the euro (a reserve currency) but issues none. (IMF)

Inflation - Imports eurozone inflation (~2%); a high local cost level but no independent dynamics. (ECB)

Banking Stability - A large private-banking/wealth sector, sound but with the FATF grey-listing/AML remediation the live risk to correspondent-banking access. (FATF/MONEYVAL 2025)

Trade Actions Capacity - Finance, real estate, tourism, gaming - high value-added but narrow and globally wealth-cycle dependent. (IMSEE)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.08 │ 78% │

│ mid │ +2.08 │ 78% │

│ long │ +2.08 │ 78% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Predictable administration with strong stats, against AML-process gaps and a tiny state-intertwined media market. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 65% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 50% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A functioning rule of law and predictable administration; AML/judicial-process gaps drove the grey-listing and are being remediated. (FATF/MONEYVAL; FH 2025)

Statistical Integrity - IMSEE produces credible, detailed national accounts. (IMSEE)

Civil Service Capacity - An efficient, well-resourced administration that recently overhauled its AML/FIU institutions. (FATF/MONEYVAL 2025)

Press Freedom - Civil liberties broadly respected, but a tiny, state-intertwined media market with limited independence; RSF does not separately rank Monaco. (Freedom House 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - No standing armed forces. The factor reduces here to the politicization of the police or gendarmerie. It is scored positive by default. Confidence is held low, as the usual evidence base does not apply.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.93 │ 63% │

│ mid │ +4.93 │ 63% │

│ long │ +4.93 │ 63% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A very stable monarchy with a constrained franchise and extreme wealth/nationality stratification. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A very stable constitutional monarchy under Prince Albert II, with orderly governance. (Freedom House 2025)

Civil Liberties - Generally respected (FH civil liberties 57/60), within a monarch-appointed government answerable only to the Prince. (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - >75% of residents are foreign and treated well/wealthy, but Monegasque-only privileges (housing, jobs) and no path to power for most leave political rights limited. (IMSEE; FH 2025)

Social Cohesion - Stable and orderly, but with extreme wealth stratification, a Monegasque/foreigner divide, and acute housing pressure. (IMSEE)

Demographics - A growing population (~38.4k, 144 nationalities); an aging wealthy base sustained by continuous HNWI in-migration. (IMSEE 2025)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.16 │ 71% │

│ mid │ +4.16 │ 71% │

│ long │ +4.16 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

France-reliant and conflict-free, with a live FATF grey-list/AML scrutiny factor. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 60% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Not in NATO/EU, with close defence/foreign-policy reliance on France under treaty. (treaty with France; UN)

Conflict Involvement - No conflict exposure. (observed)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open capital account, but FATF grey-listing (since 2024, exit pending mid-2026) and AML scrutiny are a live capital-flow/reputational risk. (FATF Oct 2025; MONEYVAL)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.24 │ 70% │

│ mid │ +5.24 │ 70% │

│ long │ +5.24 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

World-class healthcare/infrastructure and very low crime, against coastal/density exposure. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 65% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 75% │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 50% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - A Mediterranean coastal city-state - extreme wealth/adaptation but heat, marine heatwaves, and sea-level on a tiny footprint. (IPCC AR6; EEA)

Healthcare - Excellent, well-funded healthcare and very high life expectancy, with some specialist care via France. (general; FH)

Infrastructure - World-class, dense, and heavily invested, though space-constrained. (Monaco budget)

Crime Safety - Among the lowest-crime/highest-surveillance environments globally. (general; FH)

Disaster Insurance - Sophisticated insurance access against coastal/density exposure. (general)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.32 │ 63% │

│ mid │ +5.14 │ 63% │

│ long │ +4.97 │ 63% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +4.22 │ 68% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +3.66 │ 71% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +3.12 │ 73% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +4.27 │ +4.24 │ +4.22 │

│ Assets │ +3.68 │ +3.66 │ +3.64 │

│ Currency │ +3.12 │ +3.12 │ +3.12 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘