- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-21): discovery-first sweep since the 2026-07-20 pass (tight 1-day window; most scores held), triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press, run largely on the self-hosted lab search after the metered cap was exhausted, with the two highest-impact items hand-verified. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war deepened a second day - a 10th consecutive night of US strikes, the two Jordan-base US fatalities identified (toll ~17), Iran hitting Kuwait's power/desalination plant a 4th straight day (water rationing in 50C heat) and striking a Kuwaiti-flagged tanker in Hormuz, and the Houthi blockade on Saudi Arabia moving from declaration to ENFORCEMENT (Saudi tankers bound for China/India U-turned, refiners rerouting via Suez) - BUT the positive-skew exit appeared, as Qatar, Egypt and Pakistan conveyed a 10-day ceasefire proposal to Tehran, so Iran's conflict score holds off the floor. Brent topped $90. Elsewhere: a US federal judge ordered the DC National Guard deployment ENDED, reversing the 2029 pre-commitment (US rule_of_law eased, appeal pending), while Trump imposed 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods (US + Canada trade worsened); Ukraine saw a 5th day of rare wartime protests over Defense Minister Fedorov's dismissal (political_stability down); Moldova's parliament approved the Tofan government (vacancy resolved); the UK's new PM sacked his chancellor and gilt yields hit a 2-month high (fiscal down); DR Congo's Ebola outbreak passed 930 deaths with health workers striking (healthcare to the floor). CORRECTION: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' item flagged last pass was misdated 2025 coverage - the real in-window state is a diplomatic stalemate, not combat, and is not scored. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV/FSSA, World Bank, EBRD, EC, RSF, TI, V-Dem, Freedom House) + Moldovan independent press + NBM data.

- A genuine pro-EU reform democracy that proved resilient (the governing party held power and the EU referendum despite massive Russian interference; accession-negotiating), but Europe's poorest state under acute Russian-hybrid pressure.

- Standout tension: EU-reform/accession upside vs an acute Russia/Transnistria destabilization tail and Europe's steepest demographic decline. Source-lean: MODERATE-HIGH Western framing (Russian-state sources excluded).

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A reforming central bank and cleaned-up banks, on a small, poor, donor-dependent base. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt under ~45% GDP but a widening deficit and donor/EU dependence, with a new IMF arrangement. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - A credible, reforming central bank on inflation-targeting, with high reserve requirements hindering transmission. (IMF FSSA 2026; NBM)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The leu is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Eased from energy-shock peaks (~6.7%), re-accelerating on oil. (NBM)

Banking Stability - Cleaned up after the 2014 mega-fraud, with strong capital and low NPLs passing severe stress tests. (IMF FSSA 2026)

Trade Actions Capacity - Wine/agriculture, textiles, and remittances, EU-reorienting after the loss of Russia/Transnistria gas - small, poor, and shock-prone. (IMF; EBRD)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.91 │ 76% │

│ mid │ +0.91 │ 76% │

│ long │ +0.91 │ 76% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A real reform drive (justice-vetting, de-oligarchization) from a weak, corruption-dogged base. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -0.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Genuine justice-vetting, an anti-corruption court, and de-oligarchization, against a weak base and reform fatigue. (TI CPI 2025; EC; V-Dem)

Statistical Integrity - Improving and EU/IMF-engaged. (IMF; EC)

Civil Service Capacity - Weak and thin, reforming amid brain drain. (IMF; EC)

Press Freedom - Free-ish with declining oligarch control, against Kremlin-disinformation saturation. (RSF 2025; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.63 │ 64% │

│ mid │ +1.13 │ 64% │

│ long │ +1.63 │ 64% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Democratic resilience under acute pressure, against deep pro-EU/pro-Russia cleavages and demographic collapse. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 68% │ -1.0 │ -0.50 │ 0.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 65% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - The transition completed cleanly: the Tofan cabinet won the July 21 confidence vote 53-21 and was sworn in before President Sandu July 23 on an EU-integration program (Al Jazeera, Reuters - wire; Moldpres - state agency, ceremonial fact only). Held at near -1 with confidence up; long held 0.

Civil Liberties - Assembly, speech, and religion mostly protected and competitive. (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - A lawful regime that hosted Ukrainian refugees generously. (UNHCR)

Social Cohesion - A hard pro-EU/pro-Russia split with Gagauzia and Transnistria cleavages and Russian-funded grievance. (Crisis Group; Carnegie)

Demographics - Among Europe's steepest declines (down ~35% since 1991), with heavy emigration. (OSW; UNFPA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.20 │ 69% │

│ mid │ -0.05 │ 69% │

│ long │ +0.09 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A fast EU-pivot, against an acute Russia/Transnistria-hybrid tail. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 72% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - The EU's General Affairs Council FORMALLY OPENED accession Cluster 6 for Moldova on July 14, unanimously agreed by all 27 after Hungary's procedural block was lifted July 10 (Council of the EU - multilateral primary; Agence Europe, Ansa - independent). Accession momentum converted from cleared-in-committee to formally opened: near 2 -> 3, long 2 -> 3; confidence up.

Conflict Involvement - HELD at -5. Reporting attributes 17 Russian airspace violations over Moldova in August, the highest monthly count since the 2022 invasion, with five drones hours before Independence Day, and warns that strikes near the Ukrainian-Moldovan border threaten grain transit to Romanian ports. The claim rests on ONE newsroom's wire story mass-mirrored across many low-value sites, which is single-chain however many URLs carry it. Direction noted, score held, flagged for corroboration next cycle.

Sanctions Capital Controls - Open and EU-aligning, not sanctioned. (IMF; EC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.54 │ 72% │

│ mid │ -0.54 │ 72% │

│ long │ -0.54 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Energy de-risked but a weak health system and agriculture-exposed climate. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - An SE-Europe agrarian economy hit by intensifying drought/heat on rain-fed farming, with low readiness/resources. (ND-GAIN; WB CCDR)

Healthcare - Underfunded, with a severe doctor shortage from medic emigration. (WHO)

Infrastructure - Poor-to-moderate, energy de-risked from Russian gas post-2022 but still vulnerable. (IEA; EBRD)

Crime Safety - Moderate, with Transnistria grey-zone smuggling. (US State Dept)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration against drought/seismic exposure. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.99 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -2.19 │ 60% │

│ long │ -2.39 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.38 │ 67% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.38 │ 70% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +0.59 │ 73% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +0.01 │ +0.20 │ +0.38 │

│ Assets │ +0.27 │ +0.38 │ +0.49 │

│ Currency │ +0.59 │ +0.69 │ +0.78 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘