- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, WFP/OCHA, V-Dem, Freedom House, RSF, TI, ISS) + international press; near-term political confidence reduced given the recency of the Oct 2025 coup and an unsettled transition.

- An October 2025 CAPSAT-led military coup (after a Gen Z protest wave over chronic power/water cuts) ousted President Rajoelina; an AU-suspended interim government under Col. Randrianirina took office.

- Standout drags: a structural-poverty outlier (~80% under $2.15/day with no major war), chronic state failure (JIRAMA blackouts), a fresh coup, and a Grand Sud drought/famine emergency (~1.7M affected).

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

An IMF-programmed but very-low-revenue economy with a narrow export base and post-coup execution risk. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - On an IMF ECF/RSF with a narrowing deficit but a very low revenue base and post-coup execution risk. (IMF Country Report 25/221)

Monetary Independence - A managed-float ariary with a thin central bank - limited but real autonomy, undermined by shallow markets and FX scarcity. (IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The ariary is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - ~8.6% projected to ease toward ~6% - moderate-to-elevated and food-price-sensitive. (IMF)

Banking Stability - Small, shallow, low-penetration; no acute crisis but limited depth. (IMF; World Bank)

Trade Actions Capacity - A narrow export base (vanilla, nickel/cobalt via Ambatovy ~32% of FX) vulnerable to price shocks, with a widening current account. (IMF; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.96 │ 67% │

│ mid │ -1.96 │ 67% │

│ long │ -1.96 │ 67% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Weak courts, chronic under-resourcing, and a restrictive media code. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 70% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Weak judicial independence and entrenched corruption (CPI ~26/100). (TI; Freedom House)

Statistical Integrity - IMF-engaged on macro data but thin statistical capacity. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Chronically under-resourced with poor delivery - the JIRAMA failures that triggered the 2025 uprising exemplify it. (World Bank; Al Jazeera)

Press Freedom - Restrictive media-code provisions (fake-news fines, defamation) and periodic repression. (RSF)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces hold executive power directly. In some cases an armed movement governs as the state. There is no civilian principal to control them.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.85 │ 65% │

│ mid │ -4.85 │ 65% │

│ long │ -4.85 │ 65% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A fresh coup and AU suspension over a chronically volatile, deeply poor baseline. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 55% │ -6.0 │ -5.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 45% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - An Oct 2025 coup ousted Rajoelina; an AU-suspended, military-led interim with an undefined transition - acute near-term uncertainty. (Al Jazeera; ISS)

Civil Liberties - 'Partly Free' (FH 55), with a Sept-Oct 2025 crackdown that killed at least ~22. (Freedom House; Al Jazeera)

Treatment Non Citizens - Not a major migration destination or refugee host - largely a non-issue with limited data. (inference)

Social Cohesion - Deep poverty and a coastal/highland cleavage, plus dahalo banditry, but no large-scale ethnic conflict. (Freedom House; ICG)

Demographics - Young and fast-growing - a potential dividend but a strain given mass poverty and weak human capital. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.96 │ 54% │

│ mid │ -2.65 │ 54% │

│ long │ -2.35 │ 54% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Non-aligned but post-coup AU-suspended, with no major conflict. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 50% │ -2.0 │ -1.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Generally non-aligned; the post-coup AU suspension and France's role in evacuating Rajoelina inject friction. (AU; ISS)

Conflict Involvement - No interstate or major insurgent conflict; internal insecurity is banditry/protest, not war. (ACLED; ICG)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Not broadly sanctioned; FX shortages and import constraints but no major formal controls. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.15 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +0.32 │ 60% │

│ long │ +0.49 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Among the most cyclone/drought-exposed states, with a chronic power crisis and weak health. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 72% │ -6.0 │ -6.50 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 50% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Among the world's most cyclone-exposed - recurrent cyclones plus a southern near-famine drought, consistently high Germanwatch CRI, low readiness. (Germanwatch CRI; ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Very weak, with high malnutrition and low coverage especially in the south. (WHO; World Bank)

Infrastructure - A chronic electricity crisis (JIRAMA blackouts >8h/day that sparked the 2025 protests), poor roads, low electrification. (Al Jazeera; World Bank)

Crime Safety - Urban crime plus rural dahalo banditry, elevated post-coup. (OSAC; Freedom House)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible penetration against extreme exposure. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.95 │ 62% │

│ mid │ -6.06 │ 62% │

│ long │ -6.18 │ 62% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -3.66 │ 61% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -2.83 │ 64% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -2.29 │ 65% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -3.80 │ -3.73 │ -3.66 │

│ Assets │ -2.87 │ -2.83 │ -2.80 │

│ Currency │ -2.29 │ -2.25 │ -2.21 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘