- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, US State Dept, HRW, RSF, Freedom House) + international press; state media EXCLUDED on governance.

- A high-income tourism economy in acute external/debt distress - reserves fell to ~$440m against far larger 2025-26 obligations, a first-ever sovereign sukuk default narrowly averted by Indian support, with twin 2024 downgrades.

- Standout drags: acute debt distress, democratic backsliding (a Sept 2025 media-control law, protests), severe migrant-worker abuse, an India-China geopolitical whipsaw, and an existential climate threat as the world's lowest-lying nation (~80% under 1m).

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A luxury-tourism economy in acute debt distress with a dangerous bank-sovereign nexus. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -8.0 │ -6.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Acute distress - debt service ~70% of revenue by 2026 and reserves critically thin; default narrowly avoided via Indian support, with reform potential but extreme near-term vulnerability. (World Bank Oct 2025; IMF Art IV 2025)

Monetary Independence - Minimal - the rufiyaa is a managed/effectively USD-pegged regime under severe reserve pressure constraining MMA policy. (IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The rufiyaa is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Moderate (~4.6% in 2025) but with FX-shortage and pass-through risk if the peg strains. (World Bank Oct 2025; IMF)

Banking Stability - A dangerous bank-sovereign nexus (sovereign exposure ~38-67% of assets) flagged by the IMF as systemic. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Trade Actions Capacity - Near-total reliance on luxury tourism and imports, with almost no diversification and a chronic external deficit. (World Bank; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.79 │ 74% │

│ mid │ -2.35 │ 74% │

│ long │ -1.90 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Eroding rule of law and a sharply deteriorating press, with reasonable data. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Eroding - weakened parliament and independent commissions, politicized institutions under Muizzu. (HRW 2025; Freedom House 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Reasonable and IMF-engaged, though fiscal-data optimism gaps have been flagged. (IMF; Maldives Independent)

Civil Service Capacity - A functional administration delivering services, but strained by the fiscal crisis and politicization. (World Bank)

Press Freedom - Deteriorating sharply - a Sept 2025 media-control law, escalating attacks, RSF 104/180, and impunity for Islamist-gang threats. (HRW May 2026; RSF 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.32 │ 63% │

│ mid │ -1.32 │ 63% │

│ long │ -1.32 │ 63% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Volatile transitions and backsliding, with severe migrant-worker abuse and conservative pressure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 75% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A history of volatile transitions (2008-2018) and Sept-Nov 2025 protests over corruption/backsliding amid a backsliding executive. (Wikipedia 2025 protests; CFR)

Civil Liberties - Narrowing space, with creeping Islamist-conservative pressure and constrained dissent. (Freedom House 2025; HRW)

Treatment Non Citizens - Severe - ~100k documented + ~60k undocumented (mostly Bangladeshi) migrants face forced-labour indicators (passport confiscation, wage theft); protesters arrested/deported. (US State Dept; HRW 2024)

Social Cohesion - Religiously homogeneous and cohesive among citizens, but a sharp citizen/migrant divide and rising conservative pressure. (Freedom House; HRW)

Demographics - A young population, but heavy dependence on a large, marginalized foreign labour force. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.51 │ 67% │

│ mid │ -2.51 │ 67% │

│ long │ -2.51 │ 67% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A volatile India-out/India-in whipsaw amid India-China contestation, with FX strains. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Volatile - an 'India Out' pivot to China (2023) then back to India (2025), an unpredictable partner caught in India-China rivalry. (ORF; Lowy)

Conflict Involvement - No armed conflict, but a strategically contested Indian-Ocean location and a latent extremism risk. (observed; HRW on gangs)

Sanctions Capital Controls - No sanctions, but acute FX shortages and capital/import-payment strains amid the reserve crisis. (IMF; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.57 │ 67% │

│ mid │ +0.57 │ 67% │

│ long │ +0.57 │ 67% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An existential climate threat as the world's lowest-lying nation, with debt crowding out social spend. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 90% │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Existential - the lowest-lying nation on Earth; sea-level rise threatens habitability despite adaptation spend. (IPCC AR6; ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Decent for the region but squeezed by debt service crowding out social spending. (World Bank Oct 2025)

Infrastructure - Good tourism/airport infrastructure, but dispersed-atoll logistics costs and debt-funded projects under strain. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - Generally safe for tourists, with gang violence, radicalization, and drug issues in Male. (observed; HRW)

Disaster Insurance - Extreme climate exposure with minimal insurability and almost no fiscal headroom. (inference; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.37 │ 63% │

│ mid │ -2.61 │ 63% │

│ long │ -2.85 │ 63% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -1.90 │ 66% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -1.72 │ 69% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -2.04 │ 71% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -1.98 │ -1.94 │ -1.90 │

│ Assets │ -1.89 │ -1.72 │ -1.55 │

│ Currency │ -2.04 │ -1.76 │ -1.48 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘