- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-20): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-14 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran war DEEPENED rather than broke pattern - the US naval blockade of Iranian ports held all window, OFAC's wind-down GL X1 EXPIRED July 17 (full Iran oil sanctions restored), the US combat death toll rose to 17 (430+ wounded) after Iran hit Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti air base July 17, and the US ran a ninth consecutive night of strikes (incl. the Darkhovin nuclear-plant site, IAEA reviewing). Iran's retaliation crossed a threshold: it struck Kuwait's power + desalination plant twice (first civilian-infrastructure targeting) and Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields (-140-150k bpd), and on July 20 the Houthis opened a new front with a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia (ending the 2022 truce). Brent ran to ~$88-90; Hormuz war-risk hull premiums held at 3-10% of value. Secondary: the EU FROZE the $44.10 Russia oil cap for one week to July 23 (the prior pass's lapse risk did NOT materialize - held, not scored as relief) with the 21st sanctions package still stalled (a narrow Kyiv-strike mini-package adopted July 17 instead); Russia's MOEX hit a 17-week losing streak (worst since 1997), the deficit overshot plan by ~1T rubles and the ruble slid ~8%/mo to ~78.6; Ukraine's Kerch Strait / Don-Azov shipping halt PERSISTED with no reopening as Russia hit Kyiv with a 41-missile barrage July 19; the Poland-Ukraine White Eagle rift DE-ESCALATED (Zelensky opened SBU archives July 17, Tusk welcomed it); Andy Burnham became UK PM July 20 (7th in a decade but a clean handover, dropped digital ID); Israel's Knesset dissolved on schedule July 17 (Oct 27 elections) after a judicial-oversight/media legislative blitz; China's Q2 GDP printed 4.3% (weakest since 2022); India's rupee broke past its defense band to ~96.4; deadly monsoon flooding hit Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal; Nicaragua's Ortega declared no more elections; Cuba logged its 5th total grid collapse of 2026; Venezuela's quake toll passed 5,200; DRC's Ebola became the fastest-growing month-on-month; Mali's JNIM/FLA reversed the Anefis gain; Morocco released journalist Ali Lmrabet; a M7.4 quake struck the Mexico-Guatemala border. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-03): news pull since the 2026-05-28 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; Iran's Hormuz-closure claims sourced to Tasnim are treated as regime intent, not verified action). A few late-May items not captured in the prior pass are flagged in-note. Notes mark what moved.

- 2nd pass (2026-05-28, bias-corrected): Mexican independents (Animal Político, México Evalúa, Expansión) + IEP/Uppsala confirm the direction but FLAG the headline homicide drop as partly a disappearances/body-erasure artifact (integrated lethal violence ~-22%, not -44%); the 2027 judicial election was postponed to June 2028. Scores held; confidence in the violence improvement read down.

- Live-data refresh (2026-05-28): factors re-validated against diverse, independent sources (multilateral bodies + non-US/non-Anglophone press; state-self-reported data still excluded). Notes mark what moved.

- v2.0 source-discipline re-run applied. INEGI is generally credible but flagged partially-entangled given rising political pressure; confidence on its figures held moderate (not excluded).

- Re-examined under skew discipline (prior outstanding item): nearshoring is scored as a real, partner-observable positive trajectory (trade long +3, economic positive skew) and the demographic dividend (median age ~29) is credited long-term. This lifts the asset/living reads relative to the earlier version.

- Trade re-weighted 0.05 -> 0.17: near-term hostility from involuntary US tariff exposure, long-term nearshoring/diversification upside. Pemex oil dependence is a mild paradox-of-plenty fiscal drag, captured in fiscal_state.

- Slant-balance audit: the cartel-violence country-average overstates personal risk in safe enclaves; institutional deterioration (elected judges) is independently sourced (WJP).

- Scored on observable DATA over official reassurance; acute risk remains cartel violence.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

Moderate debt, an autonomous central bank, and a genuine nearshoring tailwind, offset by the Pemex liability and US tariff exposure. Under the skew re-examination, the nearshoring/diversification trajectory is credited as a real long-term positive (trade long +3). (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 78% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 80% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 78% │ -3.0 │ 0.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Deficit ~3.5% target under Sheinbaum; debt-to-GDP ~50% (moderate); Pemex a major liability and a mild paradox-of-plenty drag (oil dependence absorbing fiscal space).

Monetary Independence - Banxico cut to 6.50% (May 7, split vote) - autonomy intact (IMF, OECD, BBVA); inflation ~4.1% easing. Confidence up.

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Peso not a reserve currency; neutral.

Inflation - Improved 0 -> 1: the peso strengthened to about 16.89 per dollar on Sept 4, its strongest level since May 2024 (Trading Economics, Mexico News Daily). A currency at a two-year high is directly disinflationary for an import-exposed economy and is a market-observable print rather than an official estimate. Held to one step because the driver is partly external carry rather than domestic price dynamics. Confidence 0.65 -> 0.7.

Banking Stability - Stable, well-capitalized, foreign-bank dominated plus Banorte; competent CNBV.

Trade Actions Capacity - Improved near -4 -> -3: Mexico is so far OUTSIDE the new tariff rounds (Section 338 targets Canada; Mexico absent from the July 24 Section 301 list as reported) while nearshoring momentum posts real numbers - Q1 FDI $23.6B (+10.4% y/y, Economy Ministry - self-reported but low-contest), a climb to 19th on Kearney's FDI Confidence Index, and a Sheinbaum-Goldman Plan Mexico meeting Aug 11. Exposure to a USMCA rupture remains the tail risk that caps this. Long held +3.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.26 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +0.77 │ 60% │

│ long │ +1.28 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Major deterioration under the 2024 judicial reforms (popularly elected judges). Long-term composite worsens as the effects compound. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 78% │ -6.0 │ -6.50 │ -7.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - 2026 is the first full year of an elected judiciary; on 27-28 May 2026 Morena postponed the 2027 judicial election to June 2028 - a procedural reshuffle, not a reversal. Sharp drop in judge experience; new Judicial Discipline Tribunal can remove judges (Aristegui, La Jornada, CIDH; cross-checked beyond US think tanks). Held near -6/long -7.

Statistical Integrity - Held at -2: the homicide-vs-disappearance divergence stands as the live erasure artifact - 2026 Peace Index homicides -22.7% y/y while disappearances and extortion surge, and the March claim that ~31% of the 130,000 missing showed 'signs of life' via records cross-referencing is disputed by search collectives as administrative reclassification (all pre-window analysis; the structural dispute is ongoing). Official homicide declines remain directionally suspect; disappearance trend is the more reliable indicator.

Civil Service Capacity - Hollowed during AMLO austerity; Pemex/CFE politicized; regulators (CRE, COFECE) weakened.

Press Freedom - Among the world's most dangerous countries for journalists; continued attacks on critical media.

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is not in question. The civilian sphere is steadily shrinking. The National Guard was placed under army control. The armed forces now run ports, customs, airports, and major infrastructure construction. This transfers budget, procurement, and commercial functions to an institution with no equivalent transparency or audit exposure. The resulting risk is institutional in character.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.66 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.81 │ 60% │

│ long │ -4.97 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Cartel violence is the acute issue; welcoming treatment of expatriates and a favorable demographic profile are genuine offsets. Demographic dividend credited more fully under the skew re-examination. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Social Violence │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +2.50 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - US DOJ indictments of sitting Mexican officials and extradition pressure strain Sheinbaum's domestic position and sovereignty framing (Foreign Policy). -1 -> -2.

Civil Liberties - Protections on paper but weak enforcement; surveillance issues; limited recourse.

Treatment Non Citizens - Visa rules unchanged (still net-welcoming to professionals/expats), but 2026 anti-gentrification protests in CDMX ('gringos go home') and rent-regulation plans turned sentiment, not policy. Nudged +3 -> +2.

Social Violence - Cartel violence escalated with a new tactic: La Nueva Familia Michoacana began drone-bomb attacks on rural Guerrero communities (July 9) after security forces were redeployed to World Cup host cities, exposing non-host regions, while the Sinaloa 'Mayos vs Chapitos' war kept homicides high (CNN en Espanol / AP, Infobae - independent/wire). Near -6 -> -7; long held -7; confidence held.

Demographics - Median age ~30; ~67% working-age; a genuine dividend, but CONAPO flags ~2030 as the turning point (over-60s overtake under-15s). Long credited at +2 (was +3) given the closing window.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.45 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -1.50 │ 60% │

│ long │ -1.55 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Few alliance dependencies to lose; no external wars; the internal cartel conflict is counterinsurgency-like. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 65% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - The US legal confrontation advanced (Sheinbaum lodging criminal-charge requests with US prosecutors over the 17th ICE-related death, preparing civil suits) while Mexico simultaneously built regional counterweight: it endorsed the Panama Canal's permanent-neutrality treaty at Mulino's July 15 National Palace visit against Trump's canal-retake threats (La Nacion, CNN, Mexico News Daily - independent). Formal legal friction with Washington balanced by diversifying diplomacy: held at -2; confidence held.

Conflict Involvement - No external conflict; cartel violence internal; possible unilateral US strikes on cartels discussed, not implemented.

Sanctions Capital Controls - No sanctions; free capital flows; limited control risk; some individual designations re: cartels.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.30 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -0.30 │ 60% │

│ long │ -0.30 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Excellent affordable private healthcare and a favorable highland climate offset by high violent crime and uneven infrastructure. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -4.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 88% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Northern/SW water stress plus dual-coast hurricanes (Otis 2023) plus heat, decent but strained readiness. (WB CCDR)

Healthcare - Public IMSS/ISSSTE inconsistent; private excellent and affordable; a medical-tourism destination.

Infrastructure - Major cities good; rural underdeveloped; grid reliability declined; water stressed.

Crime Safety - Worsened -6 -> -7: cartel tactics crossed into vehicle-borne IEDs and weaponized drones at scale. The Washington Post (Sept 4) and Fortune (Sept 5) both document the shift, anchored on the Aug 30 car bombing of a police station in Ojocaliente, Zacatecas, using roughly 200kg of explosive and injuring 11, with Zacatecas alone logging 23 explosive attacks in 2026. A move from firearms to standoff explosives and drone-delivered IEDs changes what the state is policing, not merely how much. Two independent chains, confidence 0.86 -> 0.88.

Disaster Insurance - Earthquake and coastal hurricane exposure; insurance less developed but functional.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.25 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -2.35 │ 60% │

│ long │ -2.45 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -2.39 │ 60% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -1.33 │ 60% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -0.89 │ 60% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -2.38 │ -2.39 │ -2.39 │

│ Assets │ -1.48 │ -1.33 │ -1.17 │

│ Currency │ -0.89 │ -0.62 │ -0.35 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘