- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, US GAO, DOE/PNNL, FATF/APG, Freedom House) + international press; state media EXCLUDED. Tiny (~42k population) and data-thin; press not separately RSF-ranked. Fully dollarized (uses the US dollar).

- The highest-scoring Free democracy of the COFA trio, but carrying the heaviest negative tail: existential climate threat (avg elevation ~2m), the unresolved US nuclear-testing legacy (the leaking Runit Dome), and elevated financial-integrity risk (ship registry + untested digital-currency experiments).

- Standout drags: existential sea-level rise driving depopulation, the Runit Dome grievance, and FATF-flagged ML/TF risk (a new USDM1 digital UBI launched Dec 2025 over IMF warnings); the renewed ~$2.3bn COFA is the backstop.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A COFA/trust-fund-backed economy with a drawdown-financed UBI risk and elevated registry-driven integrity risk; fully dollarized. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 50% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - The renewed ~$2.3bn COFA plus a trust fund (now permitting annual drawdowns; a UBI approved Aug 2025); growth ~3% FY24-26. The drawdown-financed UBI is a forward risk. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - Fully dollarized. (definitional)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Uses the USD; the USDM1 digital instrument is a USD-Treasury-backed sovereign obligation, not a reserve currency. (definitional; Lowy)

Inflation - Easing with US inflation/commodity prices. (IMF 2025)

Banking Stability - A tiny banking sector plus elevated AML/CFT risk from the offshore registry and untested USDM1/DAO experiments. (IMF 2025; FATF/APG 2024)

Trade Actions Capacity - Fisheries plus ship-registry fees are the revenue base, with minimal goods exports and aid dependence. (IMF 2025)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.04 │ 74% │

│ mid │ -1.04 │ 74% │

│ long │ -1.04 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A Free democracy and independent judiciary, pulled down by offshore-registry opacity and weak AML oversight. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 45% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A Free democracy with an independent judiciary, but offshore-registry opacity and weak AML oversight pull it down. (FH 2025; FATF/APG 2024)

Statistical Integrity - Data-thin; the IMF flags gaps, and novel digital schemes outpace reporting. (IMF 2025)

Civil Service Capacity - Low - it explicitly lacks the technical/financial capacity to manage the Runit Dome, with COFA-implementation/audit issues. (GAO; ScienceAlert)

Press Freedom - Freedom House: media independent/civil liberties upheld (the highest of the three, 93/100); not RSF-ranked. (FH 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - No standing armed forces. The factor reduces here to the politicization of the police or gendarmerie. It is scored positive by default. Confidence is held low, as the usual evidence base does not apply.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.22 │ 55% │

│ mid │ +0.22 │ 55% │

│ long │ +0.22 │ 55% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable, high-freedom democracy hollowed by a severe climate-driven exodus. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 45% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A stable parliamentary democracy with peaceful transfers (CL/PR among the region's best). (FH 2025)

Civil Liberties - Generally upheld (CL 55/60); FH 93/100, the highest of the three. (FH 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - Limited data; generally non-discriminatory. (inference)

Social Cohesion - More unitary than FSM, but Kwajalein/Ebeye inequities and nuclear-affected-community grievances are fault lines. (inference; GAO)

Demographics - Among the most severe - a large, sustained climate-/economic-driven exodus to the US, hollowing the population. (Grist; USGS; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.37 │ 61% │

│ mid │ +1.37 │ 61% │

│ long │ +1.37 │ 61% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Pro-US/pro-Taiwan and COFA-renewed, but strained by the unresolved nuclear-legacy grievance. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +2.50 │ +4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 50% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Pro-US, pro-Taiwan, COFA-renewed, but the unresolved nuclear-legacy grievance and FY24 funding delays strain the near-term relationship. (GAO; RNZ)

Conflict Involvement - Hosts the US Reagan Test Site at Kwajalein (a strategic asset/target), but not a grey-zone hotspot like Palau. (GAO; inference)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Open and dollarized, but the FATF-flagged offshore/DAO sector raises de-risking and integrity-related access risk. (FATF/APG 2024; IMF 2025)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.21 │ 56% │

│ mid │ +0.39 │ 56% │

│ long │ +0.98 │ 56% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

The single most existential climate threat, plus the uniquely severe Runit Dome legacy. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 50% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - An atoll nation ~2m elevation - Majuro chronic king-tide flooding, freshwater-lens loss, projected partial uninhabitability by ~2050. (WB; IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - A weak system, an NCD crisis, plus the unresolved radiogenic-illness legacy; serious cases referred off-island. (inference; GAO)

Infrastructure - Thin and climate-exposed; the leaking Runit Dome is a uniquely severe legacy liability. (DOE/PNNL 2024; ScienceAlert)

Crime Safety - Generally low violent crime, with some urban (Majuro/Ebeye) social stress. (inference)

Disaster Insurance - Among the world's least-insurable risk profiles, with near-total reliance on a donor/US backstop. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.82 │ 63% │

│ mid │ -4.09 │ 63% │

│ long │ -4.36 │ 63% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -0.33 │ 61% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -0.65 │ 64% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -0.62 │ 67% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -0.31 │ -0.32 │ -0.33 │

│ Assets │ -0.70 │ -0.65 │ -0.60 │

│ Currency │ -0.62 │ -0.54 │ -0.47 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘