- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/economics rebuilt from independent sources (World Bank/IMF estimates, V-Dem, RSF, TI, Freedom House, HRW, Amnesty, UN/OHCHR, ACLED, UNODC + Irrawaddy/Frontier/Myanmar Now); the military junta's state media and official statistics EXCLUDED there.

- A collapsed conflict state: a 2021 coup triggered a nationwide civil war, and the junta now controls only a minority of territory; a planned 2025-26 election is treated as a sham.

- Standout drags: an active multi-front civil war, atrocity-level repression, a collapsed economy, a Rohingya-genocide legacy, and the catastrophic March-2025 earthquake. Overall: among the most negative profiles.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A collapsed, sanctioned war economy with a broken currency and banking system. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 55% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 55% │ -6.0 │ -6.50 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - A collapsed, opaque war economy with output well below pre-coup levels, sanctioned and junta-controlled. (World Bank MEM)

Monetary Independence - A collapsed kyat, no credible central bank, and heavy FX controls. (World Bank; Frontier)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - No international role. (definitional)

Inflation - High (~30%+), war-driven. (World Bank MEM)

Banking Stability - Broken, cut off, sanctioned, and cash-rationed. (World Bank)

Trade Actions Capacity - Gas, jade, and rare-earths alongside a vast illicit economy (drugs and scam-centres); sanctioned and conflict-disrupted. (UNODC; OFAC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.90 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -5.98 │ 58% │

│ long │ -6.06 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A military dictatorship with no rule of law, no credible data, and among the worst press repression. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 70% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A military dictatorship with no judicial independence and atrocity impunity. (V-Dem; Freedom House)

Statistical Integrity - No credible state data; multilaterals estimate. (World Bank)

Civil Service Capacity - Collapsed and contested - the junta controls only a minority of territory. (ACLED)

Press Freedom - Among the world's worst - RSF near the bottom, with mass journalist imprisonment and an underground independent press. (RSF; CPJ)

Civil-Military Relations - Direct military government since the February 2021 coup, prosecuting a civil war against a broad armed opposition. There is no civilian principal. The pre-coup constitution had already reserved a quarter of the legislature and the security ministries to the armed forces. Even the prior arrangement was military guardianship.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -7.97 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -7.97 │ 58% │

│ long │ -7.97 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An active civil war, atrocity-level repression, a genocide legacy, and mass displacement. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 55% │ -9.0 │ -8.50 │ -8.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 80% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A 2021 coup triggered a nationwide civil war; the junta has lost control of much of the country, with a sham 2025-26 election - among the world's most unstable. (ACLED; ICG)

Civil Liberties - Atrocity-level repression, mass killing and detention, and forced conscription. (HRW; Amnesty; OHCHR)

Treatment Non Citizens - A Rohingya-genocide legacy in a refugee-producing conflict state with ongoing displacement and abuse. (OHCHR; Amnesty)

Social Cohesion - An active multi-front civil war and ethnic fragmentation. (ACLED; ICG)

Demographics - War-disrupted, with millions displaced and youth fleeing or conscripted. (UN; RFA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -8.54 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -8.40 │ 59% │

│ long │ -8.26 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A sanctioned pariah junta in the region's worst active conflict. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 55% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 82% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 75% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A pariah junta propped by China and Russia and isolated from the West. (ICG; CSIS)

Conflict Involvement - Worsened -8 -> -9: resistance drone attack shut Mandalay International Airport Sept 11 (Reuters), crossing from rural insurgency to major infrastructure targets. Asia Times frames this as a new drone-warfare threshold. Confidence 0.8 -> 0.82.

Sanctions Capital Controls - Heavily sanctioned with capital controls. (OFAC; EU)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -7.98 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -7.98 │ 58% │

│ long │ -7.62 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Catastrophic climate and seismic exposure atop a collapsed health system and infrastructure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.50 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Consistently top of the Germanwatch CRI - cyclones, delta flooding, Ayeyarwady sea-level, conflict-shattered readiness. (Germanwatch CRI; ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Collapsed and war-destroyed, with disease resurgence. (UN; WHO)

Infrastructure - War-damaged, with an electricity collapse and quake destruction. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - War zones, illicit-economy violence, and scam-centre trafficking hubs. (Amnesty; ASPI)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible penetration against extreme seismic/cyclone exposure. (hazard context)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -7.0 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -7.10 │ 60% │

│ long │ -7.20 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -7.64 │ 58% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -7.14 │ 58% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -6.76 │ 58% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -7.69 │ -7.67 │ -7.64 │

│ Assets │ -7.11 │ -7.14 │ -7.11 │

│ Currency │ -6.76 │ -6.80 │ -6.79 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘