- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV, World Bank, ADB, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem, Freedom House) + Mongolian independent press.

- A genuine parliamentary democracy (a regional rarity) squeezed between Russia and China, on a mining-and-China-export-concentrated economy.

- Standout drags: a resource-curse/single-buyer trade model, pervasive corruption, and severe climate exposure; a durable democracy and a young population are offsets. Source-lean: MODERATE-HIGH Anglophone.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

Improved fiscals on a mining base, against a resource-curse/single-buyer trade model and a commodity-managed currency. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 78% │ +2.0 │ +0.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 78% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt cut sharply (~64%→44% GDP) with an upgrade and sovereign-fund building, but coal-price slumps widen deficits and FX-debt/SOE liabilities loom. (IMF 2025 Art IV; World Bank)

Monetary Independence - A 'flexible' but commodity/China-managed tugrik, with a high policy rate and a weak central-bank balance sheet. (IMF; Mongolbank)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - ~8-9% and above target, volatile. (Mongolbank; IMF)

Banking Stability - Concentrated, with elevated NPLs and weak governance, reforms underway. (ADB; World Bank)

Trade Actions Capacity - A classic resource curse - copper/coal with ~91% of exports to a single neighbour - a commodity- and single-buyer risk. (IMF; The Diplomat)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.59 │ 71% │

│ mid │ -1.94 │ 71% │

│ long │ -2.29 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A democracy with usable data, undercut by pervasive corruption. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -1.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A democracy but with pervasive corruption (a major coal-theft scandal) and judicial-independence threats. (TI; UN HRC)

Statistical Integrity - Usable and IMF/World-Bank-relied-upon. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Weak and patronage-driven, with thin capacity. (World Bank; TI)

Press Freedom - Relatively free historically but the RSF rank fell sharply, with journalist arrests; a reform bill pending. (RSF; CIVICUS)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.06 │ 64% │

│ mid │ -0.98 │ 64% │

│ long │ -0.91 │ 64% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A durable democracy and young population, against coalition churn and corruption-driven discontent. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ +0.50 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A genuine parliamentary democracy (a regional rarity), with coalition churn and corruption protests but real democratic durability. (Freedom House 2025; East Asia Forum)

Civil Liberties - Strong-ish and free, with free assembly and speech and mild erosion. (Freedom House; V-Dem)

Treatment Non Citizens - Limited routes; not a relocation destination. (general)

Social Cohesion - Cohesive and homogeneous, with inequality and corruption-driven discontent. (World Bank)

Demographics - Young (median ~27) and growing. (UNFPA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.83 │ 64% │

│ mid │ +1.26 │ 64% │

│ long │ +1.69 │ 64% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A 'third neighbor' balancer constrained by landlocked Russia/China dependence. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A 'third neighbor' balancer - pragmatic but constrained, with a recent drift toward China/Russia infrastructure. (Geopolitical Monitor)

Conflict Involvement - No conflict, but acute landlocked Russia/China dependence for energy and transit. (The Diplomat)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Open-ish and not sanctioned. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.62 │ 62% │

│ mid │ -0.62 │ 62% │

│ long │ -0.62 │ 62% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Severe climate and air-pollution exposure, with poor landlocked infrastructure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Rapid warming (>2x global), desertification, dzud (extreme winters) collapsing pastoralism, water decline, low readiness. (IPCC AR6; WB CCDR)

Healthcare - Weak and capital-concentrated, with rural gaps, improving. (ADB)

Infrastructure - Poor, landlocked over vast distances, mining-corridor-focused. (World Bank; ADB)

Crime Safety - Moderate. (general)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration against dzud/climate exposure. (PreventionWeb)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.81 │ 63% │

│ mid │ -2.93 │ 63% │

│ long │ -3.05 │ 63% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -0.67 │ 65% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -1.31 │ 66% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -1.24 │ 68% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -0.82 │ -0.75 │ -0.67 │

│ Assets │ -1.21 │ -1.31 │ -1.42 │

│ Currency │ -1.24 │ -1.43 │ -1.62 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘